Sept Finance #'s

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 04:58:18 AM EDT

Obama is socking it away and has a lead, a big one. A huge turnabout of the combined monies and a stunning financial advantage in the last month of the campaign.

McCain
          May      June      July    August     Sept

Raised    21       22        27      53         84(PF)
Spent     12       27        33      47         37
COH       32       27        21      27(T)      47

                                              
Obama
          May      June      July    August     Sept

Raised    22       52        51      67         145
Spent     27       23        57      56         88
COH       43       72        66      77         134
Obama had a better than 2:1 spending advantage, and already for Oct, without any fundraising, would have nearly a 3:1 advantage over McCain. Leaving aside the RNC/DNC for a moment, this means that Obama's spending advantage over McCain for October could be as great as 5:1, possibly even 6:1 (assuming another $150M month). You have to go back 100 years to William Jennings Bryan's under-funded candidacy against McKinley to find a bigger disparity between the Presidential candidates.

The RNC and the DNC fundraising looks like this (COH) through the end of Sept:

RNC
          April    May      June      July     August    Sept

Raised    20       23       26         26
Spent     10       10       12         19    
COH       41       54       68         75      76        77
                                     


DNC
          April    May      June      July     August    Sept

Raised    5        5         22        28  
Spent     6        5         6         19
COH       4        4         20        29      17        27
This lessens the Democratic/Obama advantage, at the beginning of Oct, a bit. $161M for Democratic/Obama and $124 for Republican/McCain. Given that McCain can fundraise all he wants for the RNC, I would expect the overall spending for Oct winds up being about a 3:2 advantage for Obama/DNC over McCain/RNC.

If Obama raises another $150M and the DNC another $50M, that would mean Obama/DNC has $334M to spend in October. If McCain is able to raise $85M for the RNC, that would mean McCain/RNC has $210M for October. It's an extra $100M+ of an advantage that Obama has in spending for the month of October.

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52 Comments

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Re: Sept Finance #'s

I doubt Obama hits $150 again.

September had the Palin acceptance speech which got $10 million alone, the debates, McCain surging which probably got everyone worried.

but now I bet their donations dry up greatly, because lets be honest we all know Obama doesn't need the money, the down ticket races do.

and Obama should stop having people donate to him, or he better share because this is our chance to just completely break the GOP backs.

by TruthMatters 2008-10-21 05:35AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

Word is Obama is giving any extra money to help the down-ticket races.

by Lolis 2008-10-21 07:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

As delighted as I am to see the money roll in for Obama the unprecedented success of his fund-raising this cycle surely puts the kibosh on electoral finance reform progress for awhile.  That's going to be an interesting, and conflicting, debate for progressive Democrats in future.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-21 05:48AM | 0 recs
Coatofarms
Re: Sept Finance #'s

he's collecting it from small donors, a huge base. if you recall, this is partly the direct result of a huge influx of money that happened - online donations up 25% - from when McCain appointed Sarah Palin and he solicited funds from email.

by Trey Rentz 2008-10-21 06:48AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

Yeah, I'm hip.  Still, makes the takes the 'public finance' decision a bit different for the next cycle, doesn't it?

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-21 11:47AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

What does the (T) stand for in McCain's 27 million before he took public financing?

What happened to that 27 million?

by Searching For Pericles 2008-10-21 05:52AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

Transfered it (to the RNC and states).

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-21 07:17AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

expand into texas!!!  it's going to go blue within 20 years, and it's not as though he can't afford it!  lay a groundgame for years to come and help noriega.

by Doug Tuttle 2008-10-21 06:21AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

Obama has been running a ton of ads here in Texas. Unfortunately, Noriega has been on the downlow for months. He started off with a lot of buzz and then just disappeared. That said, Texas has great organizing through their local Democratic offices with support from paid Obama staffers.

by Lolis 2008-10-21 07:11AM | 0 recs
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William Jennings Bryan?

You're good, Jerome!

I thought Bryan made bank from the Scopes monkey trial!

Yeah, the Repubs were too good back then (1870s-1900s).

$150 million in one month is obscene. Obscene.

Obscene.

That's $5 million a day; October will be no different....

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-10-21 06:22AM | 0 recs
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Re: William Jennings Bryan?

The Scopes trial was much later. This was the '96 and '00 contests.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-21 07:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: William Jennings Bryan?

Well, those Republicans were essentially us.  Northeastern, well-educated, elites (not necessarily elitIST) who favored tariffs and high taxes.  FDR and JFK cemented the flip.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-10-21 07:28AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

I'm guessing Obama gets about $80M for October.  The Palin pick was definitely good for about $15-20M alone in September.  Still, Obama basically has money to burn.

Off-topic question for Jerome.  I believe your favorite tracking poll is the GWU/Battleground poll.  Do you think it's reasonable to believe that it could go from Obama +13 (10/14) to Obama +1 (today) all in the span of a week, at this late stage in the game?  Any insight into their methodology/party weightings?  Rasmussen is stable, TIPP and Hotline back to showing small trends in Obama's direction, and Gallup and Zogby (who only has a +2 Dem party ID advantage) are moving big time in Obama's direction.  Is Battleground seeing something every other pollster is missing.

FWIW, their day-to-day numbers seem very erratic, especially when compared to Rasmussen or even Zogby.

by OGLiberal 2008-10-21 06:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

I don't have a favorite. I have looked and they were the most correct in their final pick 3 out of the last 4 elections.  As such, I pay attention to the overall trend and the final numbers the week of the election will be their judge.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-21 07:20AM | 0 recs
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what are the rules

regarding how obama can spend money to help downticket races? of course the first priority is to win, and no expense should be spared, but i wonder if there arent some races (the chris shays seat in connecticut comes to mind) where obama's money could really push it to the dem.

by highgrade 2008-10-21 06:25AM | 0 recs
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where is the link for that...

Bryan/McKinley race?   Jerome's sense of humor is so dry that it could be called parched.  

But check this out, the map from the 1896 election (which was close):  

1896 map

Red = McKinley (R)
Blue = Bryan (D)

Almost a complete reversal from where we are today.  Amazing.

Not sure, but I think Obama has had few fundraisers this month (one in New York, last Thursday?).  Doubt they match September.  But, if they can do $78,000,000 post October 1, they will have exceeded $657,000,000 in total which would be over $1,000,000 a day since the campaign began on 1/16/07.

by mboehm 2008-10-21 06:34AM | 0 recs
Coatofarms
Re: where is the link for that...

not really when you think about it. the democrats, in the south, were opposed to racial integration - at the time, and they held a legacy of being zell-miller-like conservative, kind of old-school perspectives that the GOP in the south (not the national party) upended. The reform was  good for the south.

So in those days, despite the fact that the map appears blue - people were voting for a sort of conservatism ..

by Trey Rentz 2008-10-21 06:51AM | 0 recs
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Re: where is the link for that...

They were voting for gov't populism and social conservatism, which hasn't been much around since.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-21 07:22AM | 0 recs
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All the money in the world can't save you

if your VP pick goe around making dumb-fuck comments, brings back scaremongering and foreign policy back to the forefront and even appears to question your judgment thus giving more ammunition to your opponent. Biden needs a muzzle and a leash.

by tarheel74 2008-10-21 06:49AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world...

A couple of things about this:

1) Do you think anybody really cares about this?  I'm not being confrontational...I just don't see it resonating with voters.

2) Do Dem candidates think that they can get away with saying whatever they want at private fundraisers?  The stuff always gets out - see, Bittergate, Obama in San Francisco.

3) Why did Biden even feel like he had to make these comments?  Did he have to convince the fundraisers to pony up the cash because September's fundraising totals were so disappointing :-)

by OGLiberal 2008-10-21 06:53AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world...

don't feed the salmon

by Trey Rentz 2008-10-21 06:54AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world...

in case you haven't noticed he gave ammunition to the GOP 15 days before the election. He raised the specter of an attack and he himself questioned the rightness of Obama's response in such a case or at least appeared to do so. When I am working the phones, knocking on doors here in NC and asking seniors to vote for Barack he is undoing everything by increasing their doubt. every cable news program played up his comment. It has found its way into the McCain stump speech. Can he do any worse? Sure he can say Obama does not seem experienced enough to be president, maybe then you will think he is making dangerous loose talk. At his rate he will single-handedly lose us this election if he does not watch what he says. Obama's comment in San Francisco was bone-headed, even Obama says so. But that was 4 months ago and we had enough time to get over it. This is yesterday. This is stupid because 15 days before the election I do not want our VP nominee to appear to second guess the readiness of the presidential nominee.

by tarheel74 2008-10-21 07:06AM | 0 recs
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I can see we have a Matt Drudge fan here. n.t.

by spacemanspiff 2008-10-21 07:27AM | 0 recs
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Re: I can see we have a Matt Drudge fan here. n.t.

True dat

by John in Chicago 2008-10-21 07:48AM | 0 recs
Coatofarms
Re: All the money in the world can't save you

You want muzzles on everyone because all you have to vote for is a pit bull, whereas we're going to vote for somebody that, on the internet, doesn't need to know he's a dog.

Tarheel. you are a troll.

by Trey Rentz 2008-10-21 06:53AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

Methinks youre buying the rethug spin a bit too much. Biden was making an honest assessment that our enemies may try to test our new leadership.

From what I have seen, the only people that his statement bothered have been Drudge, the NY Post, John McCain, and you.

by John in Chicago 2008-10-21 07:01AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

stop excusing bad behavior. What he said was wrong. 14 days before the election every word counts. Seems like Biden does not know that.

by tarheel74 2008-10-21 07:07AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

Explain how its wrong, and give a reason other than the fact that Drudgie-poo thinks its wrong.

Explain how its wrong to state that bad people may potentially try to test Obama's leadership.

Then explain to me why it even matters, since like I said, no one is making a big deal about it except McLame, Drudge, and you.

Hope you enjoy being in that company.

by John in Chicago 2008-10-21 07:11AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

do you watch any of the news shows or do you just get your news from echo chambers? If you have seen any news and politics shows you will know why it is wrong.

by tarheel74 2008-10-21 07:12AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

I've been looking at your comments, and you are one bitter, condescending, ignorant and rude person.

You are questioning my judgment based on what? You think your hot shit because.....? Oh I know, because you were a debater before. A great debater. A master debater.

Piss off, okay? I'm not gonna bother with a bitter, angry person like yourself. Especially one who cannot answer a simple question and instead has to resort to inferring that I get my news from an echo chamber.

by John in Chicago 2008-10-21 07:17AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

you could have asked me the question before tr'ing me but I guess I have come to expect stuff like that from idiots like you who tend to be disagreeable when they see something they disagree with. So no point having a conversation with someone as petulant as you.

by tarheel74 2008-10-21 07:21AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

tr'd ya cuz you tr'd everyone who had dared to question the master debater.

So, kindly piss off.

by John in Chicago 2008-10-21 07:26AM | 0 recs
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Take it elsewhere

If you think the poster is clueless, or an idiot, or you just don't agree with them, that is not grounds for a zero rating. Zero is for comments that are offensive, script-generated, or otherwise content-free and intended solely to abuse other readers.

This "0" is a no brainer.

by mydailydrunk 2008-10-22 10:19AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

I, myself, will admit that I don't watch any of the news shows. I can't bring myself to do it because they drive me batty - all of 'em, every network.  I get my news from the news sources (MSM included) on the Web and from blogs (right and left).

What non-Fox news shows/talking heads are talking about it?  If it's limited to Morning Joe and David Gregory, well, that's par for the course.

Halperin isn't even making a big deal about it...that should tell you something.

And wouldn't this also be true of McCain?  Sure, he's been a Senator for a while but he's never been president or a senior military officer or a key cabinet member or an ambassador.  He hasn't even really done anything meaningful legislatively on the foreign policy front.  Wouldn't he also be tested in the first 6-months.  Isn't every first term president tested?  Heck, Saint Ron was tested by the bombings in Lebanon in his first two years in office.  I think people expect presidents to be tested.  They take that into account when assessing their choices.  If people have already accepted that Obama has what it takes to be president - as many have - why would what Biden said matter?

by OGLiberal 2008-10-21 07:36AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

well first off this is the type of conversation I can have. So thank you.

Maybe Morning Joe is part of the course because he is an ex-Republican congressman, I do not watch it but I do watch David Gregory, Hardball, Wolf Blitzer and AC360. All of them covered it. That in itself generates the narrative.

Now what did Biden say that I take issue with:

1) that he will be tested: while on the face of it that might be true but ask yourself is it good politics 15 days before election esp in a closed gathering?

2) this is the most damning: "And he's going to need help . . . to stand with him. Because it's not going to be apparent initially; it's not going to be apparent that we're right." What the fuck does that mean? You can spin it any way you want but when you read it he is saying that Obama might apparently not make the right decision. Is he nuts? Is he dumb? This on the day Gen. Powell endorsed Obama and the GOP were floundering for a response, he gives them an opening wrapped with a ribbon.

Why does it matter? because everyday we keep McCain on the defensive in this final home-stretch is a day we win. Instead we have Biden giving them this gift. On the ground when I knock on doors here in NC and make phone calls most seniors have the same doubt...he is not experienced. How am I going to explain what Biden said? Today Drudge is doing his best to drive this story. It might get some traction, who knows but the question is the Obama campaign prides itself on message discipline, so why the hell do we have Biden spouting stuff like this which definitely does not help but brings us in the defensive and forces the campaign to issue a clarification statement. It was stupid. Biden obviously is undisciplined I for one cannot trust him to be left to his own devices this stage of the campaign. He therefore needs a minder. a teleprompter, prepared speech, muzzle, call it what you may but needs it.

by tarheel74 2008-10-21 07:54AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

For the record, I really wish he hadn't said what he said.  Again, I don't know why the Dem folks don't choose their words more carefully at these private/closed fundraising events.

This is, of course, Joe being Joe, but we could do without that for the next two weeks.  He can be Joe all he wants for the next 4-8 weeks after Obama wins.

That said, I don't see this having much affect on the race...many minds are already made up or strongly leaning one way or another and it will take a little bit more than a diarreah mouth moment from Biden to cause them to switch directions.  But who knows?

Since you're out there working the streets and the phones, do you get the sense that a lot of people are still undecided?  If yes, that amazes me.  I mean, I could see that being true in early September, but we're two weeks out and this has been one of the more heavily covered campaign's in modern history.

by OGLiberal 2008-10-21 08:08AM | 0 recs
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Re: All the money in the world can't save you

I had this amazing conversation with a couple of students. They are still obviously undecided and they were mildly swayed by Gen. Powell. However like I said a number of people are still undecided. NC is getting inundated with GOP mailers most of them negative and scare-mongering. The people who are undecided are the older people. The whisper campaign is having some effect and words like what Biden said does not help. I have been saying this but people here seem to live in a bubble and rather dismiss anything that they find disagreeable than ask for accountability. I did. I emailed the Obama campaign and told them how hard it is for grassroots workers to help the campaign with swaying undecided voters when the candidates (or at least one of them) appear undisciplined and off-message.

by tarheel74 2008-10-21 09:33AM | 0 recs
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Re: Sept Finance #'s

The RNC might be better served diverting all it's remaining funds to saving what congressional races it can rather then pissing away scarce resources into the toilet that is the McCain/Palin campaign.

by hankg 2008-10-21 06:53AM | 0 recs
Coatofarms
Re: Sept Finance #'s

thats two posts in a row that seem to +care+ about what the RNC actually does... hmm..

by Trey Rentz 2008-10-21 06:55AM | 0 recs
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Snark Warning

Dukakis would have raised even more money by this point!

by John in Chicago 2008-10-21 07:03AM | 0 recs
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Next Wednesday

Does anyone have any inkling of what Obama is going to do next Wednesday?   Is it going to be a live address, or is it going to be a more professionally edited infomercial?

by gavoter 2008-10-21 07:13AM | 0 recs
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Re: Next Wednesday

Sitcom

by JDF 2008-10-21 10:25AM | 0 recs
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He's going to "spread the wealth around"

OMG, that socialist Obama is going to spread the wealth...to down ticket races that needs a quick hit of cash!

What a red-commie-lefty-socialist-frenchy-basta rd!

Oh, and, I guess we can all worry about those days "suspended" in Hawaii...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_o n_el_pr/obama

The Republicans are outmanned, outgunned, out-thunked!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 07:14AM | 0 recs
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Battleground

Any thoughts on today's Battleground tracker--48-47 Obama?  I don't know if Obama can buy his way to victory.

by esconded 2008-10-21 07:36AM | 0 recs
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Yeah, my thoughts is Obama is going to win....

An electoral victory.

Just a matter of how big.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 07:38AM | 0 recs
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Jerome will post on this n/t

by esconded 2008-10-21 07:40AM | 0 recs
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Re: Battleground

I asked Jerome about that above since he seems to prefer that particular tracker.  Didn't see a response from him yet.  I'm calling this one a big time outlier.  A week ago - yes, 7 days ago - they had Obama at +13.  That was also an outlier.  Their numbers have been very erratic since they started.  Remember, when they first started, they had McCain up by 2 when all of the other trackers had Obama ahead by 5-7pts.  I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle, which is about a 6pt Obama national lead, which is about the average across all the trackers/national polls.

I also have no idea what their internals are or what party weightings they use.  Zogby (yeah, I know) has Obama moving up in his tracker and his split is only 38D/36R.

by OGLiberal 2008-10-21 07:40AM | 0 recs
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Re: Battleground

Correction - Jerome did respond to my post.

by OGLiberal 2008-10-21 07:42AM | 0 recs
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Gallup is out and looking good

Now Obama is up by 7%, even using the more traditional likely voter screening and he is up by 10% on the expanded likely voter screening.

Hopefully this will help quash any additional stories of a McCain comeback underway.

I haven't checked Drudge lately, but I am sure he is not posting these numbers.

by gavoter 2008-10-21 09:04AM | 0 recs
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But...But...But...

Socialism! Share the wealth!

We are DOOOOOOOMED!

(Republicans all over are already linening their excuse for why this is not a repudition of the R brand. I think they are really going to throw poor John McCain to the wolves...)

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 09:16AM | 0 recs
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What wealth?

From Colbert:

"Is your money safe, or is it in a bank?"

Yeah, damn that socialism payin-fer public schools, police, fire brigades, interstates, airports, public financed campaigns, Smithsonian.

Yep, fuk dem, they're all fruits of the poison tree, and we should all stop using them.

by mydailydrunk 2008-10-22 10:50AM | 0 recs
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PPP: FL--O+1, IN--O+2
48-47 in Florida
48-46 in Indiana
by esconded 2008-10-21 09:24AM | 0 recs

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