"There Is No Ground Game"

by Todd Beeton, Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 02:12:41 PM EDT

Today on Morning Joe, Chuck Todd said Barack Obama has a "small but significant lead" in Florida and that "Florida has really slipped away from John McCain," calling the situation "a head-scratcher." This is interesting to hear since it still looks like a tenuous lead to me (Pollster has Obama up by 2.8% and 538 projects an Obama win by just 2.6%) with two out of the last three polls showing McCain slightly ahead.

But one area where John McCain is undoubtedly behind, which may actually be worth a couple points, is in organization. Joe Scarborough, a former Rep. from Florida then frustratedly jumped in to amplify Todd's remarks about Florida:

Yesterday I was on the phone with state party leaders in the state of Florida. There is no ground game...As you and I both know, the ground game is actually what drives numbers up even beyond what you're reporting this morning.

The impact that the superior Obama ground game is going to have on turnout on Nov 4th is one of the many unknowns about this election, but luckily it's not something we have to wait two weeks to entirely gauge. Chuck Todd transitioned to a discussion of the remarkable advantage Democrats have had in early votes in the states that are reporting the partisan makeup of the ballots being requested. He specifically mentioned Nevada where Democrats are doubling the advantage the Bush-Cheney campaign had in 2004 and the Republicans just had their worst day. More from First Read:

Jon Ralston on the early voting in the state: "Third day exceeds second. Turnout will hit double-digits Tuesday. Democrats still have huge lead -- 40,625 -17,509. That's 59 percent to 25 percent. (Monday it was 13,099-6,419.) In CD3, it's 2-to-1 Democratic voter lead. Senate 5 (Heck) just under 2-to-1 Democrats; Senate 6 (Beers) about 2-to-1, too. The Democrats essentially are doubling the GOP turnout -- or more -- every day. Can they possibly keep this up?"

Todd concluded about the McCain campaign:

The ground game it is just absent If they don't have a ground game, Missouri's going to slip away from them.

Watch it:

Tags: Barack Obama, Chuck Todd, early voting, Florida, Joe Scarborough, John McCain (all tags)

Comments

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A very smart campaign team, lots of money

And the right messenger.

I have always believe in those three things, and mostly in Axelrod. Cause he preached infrastructure, ground game, registration and GOTV. First, last and always.

He just seemed more "scared" then those other overconfident clowns that ran Gore and Kerry's campaign.

He knew he had to literally throw a perfect game, he had very little margin for error.

I'm going to read his book, it will fascinating to see how he (fingers crossed) pulled this off.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 02:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: A very smart campaign team, lots of money

As of right now, Plouffe is right up there with Axelrod to me. Combine the two with a candidate who clearly understands politics and campaigning at a much deeper level than most and you get a three-headed campaign. With other people, disaster. But the way the drama has been minimized is fascinating, because I'm sure there have been strong disagreements. But none of them have ever leaked.

I think -- and it's not a new thought, many of us thought this at the time -- that the summer was the perfect piece of misdirection. Obama going off on the foreign tour and doing big rallies kept all eyes on him. Meanwhile, at home, the ground game was patiently and methodically being set up.

I disagree slightly with the "perfect game" comment. I think the entire structure of the campaign and the way it's been run has been to deemphasize running a perfect game. Kerry tried for a perfect game and blew it. The 50%+1 strategy is completely a perfect-game strategy. The Obama strategy has always been about creating as many routes to victory as possible and driving each of them as hard as possible. That way you can blow it here and there and you still win.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-21 07:47PM | 0 recs

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Re: A very smart campaign team, lots of money

All fine and dandy but lets not forget the wind was at our backs this year too. This campaign would not have been this successful in 2000 or 2004. Any number of things trotted out by the GOP this year could have sunk this campaign in the electoral college in 2000 or 2004, even with this ground game.

The public is open to our message and ideas this year I think both because Obama is fresh and exciting but also because the GOP has failed so dramatically. The public was NOT at all open to us in 2000 and scared shitless of us in 2004. "Spread the Wealth" alone would have tipped us into the stinky end of a landslide in 2000.

Not concern trolling, but trying to keep perspective. The worst thing the GOP has done to themselves was to start believing their own bullshit. I would hate for our team to fall victim to that same weakness.

We own this mess in Jan and the public will be vicious if we don't produce.

by JerryColorado23 2008-10-23 07:41AM | 0 recs

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Chuck Todd = Nails Across Chalk Board

Chuck Todd is "feeling confident" about Ohio for McCain.

Chuck Todd and Tom Brokaw still secretly carry water for the Repubs. It's amazing how much the guise of "objective" journalism is couched in slanted rhetoric!

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-10-21 02:51PM | 0 recs

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Re: Chuck Todd = Nails Across Chalk Board

I wouldn't be surprised if McCain won Ohio, actually. It seems as if he's made trips there every week of the campaign, and now he's made Joe the plumber into a quasi-celebrity. Add to that the fact that it has really disappointed us lately, and I could definitely see McCain taking the state (not that it will matter).

by rfahey22 2008-10-21 02:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: Chuck Todd = Nails Across Chalk Board

It depends on if the Ohio GOP is successful in stealing the vote... they refiled their case in the GOP dominated Ohio Supreme Court...

by LordMike 2008-10-21 02:59PM | 0 recs

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The 'Deep' Midwest

I agree. From reading George Packer's 'The Hardest Vote' I think we have an uphill struggle there.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-21 02:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: Chuck Todd = Nails Across Chalk Board

McCain will win Ohio.

It won't matter.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 03:02PM | 0 recs

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Q-Poll Has Obama +14 in Ohio

Not saying he's really that far ahead, but it would be hard for the Q-poll sample to have Obama +14 there if he wasn't actually up by 8 or more.

And if Obama's +8 in Ohio now, he'll win in 12 days.

by RT 2008-10-23 06:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: "There Is No Ground Game"

If Obama can somehow bequeath his network of supporters to the Democratic Party after leaving office, Republicans will have a most difficult time over the coming decades, indeed.

by rfahey22 2008-10-21 02:52PM | 0 recs

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Palin gave Obama the opening in FL

I can't tell you how many senior citizens I've talked to who have zero confidence in her abilities. In contrast, seniors have a comfort level with Biden.

I think the VP choices eroded McCain's advantage in his best demographic.

by desmoinesdem 2008-10-21 02:58PM | 0 recs

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Re: "There Is No Ground Game"

My friend Volunteered in New Mexico this past weekend. I asked him if the Obama campaign seemed organized, and he said they were not extremely organized but they had an army of people playing GOTV from all over the Country. He drove from East Texas 13 hours to volunteer...

I know 4 people personally who have volunteered for the Obama campaign. I have never seen anything like this before...

by agpc 2008-10-21 03:31PM | 0 recs

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Re: "There Is No Ground Game"

the missouri crew is light years ahead of Kerry. It is the organization here that has kept this state in play when it would probably drift toward mccain normally.

by Xris 2008-10-21 05:52PM | 0 recs

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Blue and red ballots?

I don't understand this:

>Chuck Todd transitioned to a discussion of the remarkable advantage Democrats have had in early votes in the states that are reporting the partisan makeup of the ballots being requested.

In a general election, how would voters request a "Democratic" or "Republican" ballot. There's just one ballot, no?

by JD Lasica 2008-10-21 07:22PM | 0 recs

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they mean the voter is registered

as a Republican or Democrat.

by John DE 2008-10-23 08:46AM | 0 recs

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Ballots

OK, just watched the video. Sounds like it's the same ballot, but you can track the party affiliation of who's requesting them.

by JD Lasica 2008-10-21 07:26PM | 0 recs

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Bullshit. This is GOP sandbagging.

The Republicans want to dampen turnout any way they can. There are two ways to do this when you are behind.

A) Vote supression techniques. Check!

B) Pretending there's no ground game and that the campaign in certain swing states is in "disarray." Check!

The latter is to con your opponent's supporters and volunteers into thinking it's in the bag so they let up off the gas pedal in the home stretch.

Obama is already fighting this in Pennsylvania, and they are extremely concerned about it in other states as well.

The 72-hour program the RNC put together has not gone away. It's still there.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2008-10-23 06:44AM | 0 recs

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Bullshit. This is GOP sandbagging.

The Republicans want to dampen turnout any way they can. There are two ways to do this when you are behind.

A) Vote supression techniques. Check!

B) Pretending there's no ground game and that the campaign in certain swing states is in "disarray." Check!

The latter is to con your opponent's supporters and volunteers into thinking it's in the bag so they let up off the gas pedal in the home stretch.

Obama is already fighting this in Pennsylvania, and they are extremely concerned about it in other states as well.

The 72-hour program the RNC put together has not gone away. It's still there.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2008-10-23 06:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: "There Is No Ground Game"

There never was any "Ground Game", they were just planning on stealing the votes in crucial swing states using GOP-controlled counties to stuff the proverbial ballot box. If anyone in the MSM bothered to do a county-by-county analysis of exactly where the exit polling didn't match the actual results, they'd have realized that all of those counties were overhwelmingly controlled by GOP lackies.

They spoke often of their much vaunted "Ground Game" as a way of generating a plausible explanation in people's minds for Bush's miraculousl emergence as the winner - against all polls, both pre- and post-voting. It's the same thing as coming out and saying "Wow, big surprise, the (insert bullshit issue such as gay marraige here) voters really carried the day."

Another point to mention is that GOP-funded registration drives are also designed to do nothing more than pad the rolls of alleged GOP voters. That's why Nathan Sproul & Associates and now this guy who was just arrested in California either destroy the Democratic registrations, switch them to GOP, or trick the people into registering GOP anyway: because they're going to switch their votes using the electronic machines anyway, but having the appearance of a surge in GOP voters helps to cover their tracks.

by martindreadnought 2008-10-23 09:04AM | 0 recs