Preparing For Tonight

No wonder McCain tried to scuttle the VP debate last week. Preparations for it have taken Palin off the campaign trail -- which is, let's face it, her only asset at this point, and occupied way more McCain staffers than he can afford to head down to the Arizona compound to de-program her so that the regular Joe six-pack shines through. But they clearly had no choice. Tonight is a critical opportunity for the McCain campaign to stop the bleeding and Mike Lux thinks that will be precisely the result. How's that, exactly?

I actually think this debate is set up extremely well for her:

  • Incredibly low expectations
  • Short answers on broad predictable topics
  • Lots of prep time with smart GOP operatives giving her zingy one-liners that will play well on news clips in the days following the debates
  • Biden feeling a need to walk on tiptoes because he doesn't want to seem condescending
  • Pre-written Republican talking points attacking Biden's condescension and Palin's strong, expectation-beating performance

Mike is under no illusions that a strong -- or even passable -- performance by Palin tonight would change the dynamics of the race, rather it could simply "stabilize her approval rating", which has been slipping quite dramatically lately, a slide that has carried over to the ticket as a whole.

Jed Lewison has concerns too about the ridiculously low expectations Palin has to live up to tonight. Looking back on her past debate performances, Lewison warns not to take Palin lightly.

Sarah Palin might not give a good interview, and John McCain's advisers might not trust her to give a press conference, but in a highly structured debate like the one we are going to see on Thursday night, she has the ability to be dominant.

Because the format allows for very little give-and-take between Palin and Joe Biden, her "values"-oriented debating style stands a good chance of succeeding. The central feature of her debate style is that rather than getting bogged down in facts and specifics, she instead says what she is for and what she is against using terms like "healthier,""stronger,""more prosperous," and "fairer."

Don't believe him? Watch this:

Despite the fact that Palin's greatest asset going into tonight is the remarkably low expectations for her performance, is it me or does she seem to be trying to raise them herself in pre-debate interviews?

Palin came out swinging during an appearance on Sean Hannity's radio show on Wednesday:
She gave a preview of how her preparations for Thursday's debate in St. Louis are going and said she has been researching Barack Obama and Joe Biden's voting records, "Everything is going well and I'm out here in Arizona getting some fresh air even as we are studying up and reading a lot of voting records and realizing how extremely liberal the other ticket is so this is a good time to be here and I so look forward to tomorrow night getting to speak to Americans about the very, very clear choice they are going to have on November 4th."
Palin also claimed she was eager for the debate since the media had been 'censoring' her: "Getting to speak directly to Americans without that filter of mainstream media trying to I think maybe censor some of my comments as we lay out those contrasts between these two different tickets."

Perhaps Palin could have used some expectations setting prep as well. Sen. Claire McCaskill didn't seem to have the same problem.

Of Biden, McCaskill said, he “has a tendency to talk forever and sometimes say things that are kind of stupid.”

Tags: Sarah Palin, VP debate (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Re: Preparing For Tonight

Don't forget "the moderator is biased too" so if she does bad it isn't her fault you see it is the liberal media once again @@ I don't think my eyes have rolled this much since I was 13.

by jrsygrl 2008-10-02 09:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

I think a very effective technique for Biden is when Palin criticizes Obama quietly point out that she's never met him, and then talk about his experiences working together for the past four years.  And when she praises McCain, emphasize that he's known him for 30 years whereas she's barely met him.  Without belaboring the point it would be clear that Biden really knows the Presidential candidates while Palin is just repeating talking points.

by LanceS 2008-10-02 09:02AM | 0 recs
Palin has praised Obama a bit as governor

I hope Biden mentions that ... I looked at the transcript of the debate Ifill moderated between Cheney and Edwards. It was very technical and detailed on issues like foreign policy and the economy. If we get questions like that I think Palin will have trouble. She may just start repeating the same talking points over and over.

I think it'll be a mistake for Palin to attack Obama-Biden all night, especially if her angle is going to be how liberal they are. More and more people like those policies today than anytime in the past couple decades. This reveals McCain-Palin just aren't able to sell themselves in a convincing way. They have no new ideas or even proposals beyond tax cuts, drilling, and more war. Good luck tonight, Gov. Palin.

I don't think this debate will change anything either way. I am excited to watch it though.

by Lolis 2008-10-02 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

Ooh, that's pretty good. I particularly like the, "what gives you the right to come here and just assault me when I've never said one bad word about you and you've never even met me?" angle of it.

by vcalzone 2008-10-02 10:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

If he keeps talking about policy and just lets her keep hitting him while keeping up a minimum of defense (since she won't really be able to call him on it, of course), he'll look serious and she'll look like a jerk.

by vcalzone 2008-10-02 10:14AM | 0 recs
I expect her to do quite well actually

I'm sure the pundits, at least the right ones, will give her the win.

They need an easy "so shiny" moment, talking about credit swaps is not sexy enough for the punditry.

It's not going to matter. This is about Obama V. McCain.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-02 09:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

I don't see her or Biden getting the opportunity to go back and forth in this manner.

These ochestrated VP and presidential debates are a lot more like interviews than actual debates.

by nintendofanboy 2008-10-02 09:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

I bet she does a lot better with being able to jot down a couple of thoughts and then go on a 90 second spree. This is actually much easier than a person to person interview.

That said, the ship has sailed as far as setting expectations for her go, it's not going to work to bash her as not knowing a newspaper exists and then turn around and be amazed she's being given low expectations.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-02 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

Even if McCain/Palin lose the election, the name Sarah Palin will live on.

Every Wednesday at Trivia Night.

http://www.wilytrax.com

by WilyTrax 2008-10-02 09:31AM | 0 recs
Re: She'll do fine

I don't know if I would go that far, but I think she is going to do well enough to go forward.

But, I think the media is also getting tired of Palin and her zingers.  She has already proven that she can get those out and she can answer a question without a follow up.

I don't think the media is going to let up too much on her until they get a press conference.  As much as the media types have a vested interest in keeping the election close, I think that the thought of President Palin terrifies many of them who realize she is not capable of handling the presidency.

So, I think she will 'win' the debate with a big but.   That big but is going to an albatross until she can handle herself in a press conference without McCain by her side.

by gavoter 2008-10-02 09:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

VP debates have had zero impact on the presidential race--see 1988.

But this is Palin, so who knows.  Biden needs to
be sharp, not wordy.

I don't think this debate will be a game-changer, but McCain could get a lift in the polls.

by esconded 2008-10-02 09:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

Who knows?

Who knows what'll happen?  Last time we thought Edwards would trounce Cheney and he didn't.  It was a flop for the Dems.

ANYTHING can happen in this campaign.  Probably won't, but could.

by 08AMA 2008-10-02 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

Is tonight's "debate" going to use podiums.

This sit-down crap works in her favor.

by Bush Bites 2008-10-02 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

podiums.

by democratunc 2008-10-02 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

My thought is that Biden could wait for her to give her attacks and talking points and then as the first part of a previous answer point out that what she said doesn't add up.  Then he can give his own answer to the question.  A few of these, and he can turn to her and say something on the order of:

"Governor, John McCain picked you with almost no notice and nowhere near enough time for any human being to fully prepare for one of these 'final exams from hell'.  He sure didn't do right by you, and I'm wondering how you can continue to defend him."

by beerwulf 2008-10-02 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Preparing For Tonight

Palin had a stock answer she used for every question asked during the gubenatorial debate: let's get everyone together, make Alaska more prosperous, and not continue with the failed policies of the past.

I don't think that's going to work tonight.  She's a polarizing figure, the economy is not prosperous, and the Republicans have held the White House for the past eight years.

I'm doubtful that Palin will say something so stupid that she'll disqualify herself (in the minds of most voters).

Biden's job tonight, though, is very simple.  First, he should say something like this: "The main duty of the Vice President is to be ready to assume the presidency during a time of national emergency.  When Ford replaced Nixon, Johnson followed Kennedy, and Truman took over from Roosevelt, the country was in the midst of confronting huge challenges.  While I hope such an occasion never arises, if the worst happens I'm confident I can steady the country during a time of emergency".

Then say nothing more.  The comparison invites itself.

As for responding to the substance of Palin's comments, he really just has to make two points.  First, the US is probably heading into a recession, so all of this talk about prosperity is pollyana.  Second, the Republicans brought us to where we are now.

Biden doesn't need a home run.  It's really the first argument which would win over voters, because no one doubts he could play this role during an emergency.  All attention at this point should be focused on the race between Obama and McCain (and if Biden is smart he'll realize that he doesn't want this debate to be a story past today).

by IncognitoErgoSum 2008-10-02 10:40AM | 0 recs
Joe will do fine

and so will Palin.

The problem is, "fine" for Joe displays a very in-depth understanding of issues. "Fine" for Palin will seem very unspecific in comparison.

She will attack him all night, push talking points, and do nothing to reverse the existing narrative. We already know she's a pitbull in lipstick. Unless she can pull "PHD in lipstick" out of her hat, she's done.

I have no doubt she'll get a soundbite out of the deal, but she will still be hiding from the media, and having France confuse her with Tina Fey.

by Neef 2008-10-02 10:52AM | 0 recs
EXACTLY RIGHT

 ...and they will both win. I can guarantee it.

by QTG 2008-10-02 11:48AM | 0 recs
liberal liberal liberal liberal

While our side has been typically focused on Palin's lack of.... anything useful in being prez. or veep, McCain's aides have been preparing her to do be a classic running mate i tonight's debate.

She is going to shamelessly and relentlessly attack the opponents. She will twist the truth. She will outright lie. She will dog whistle. She will attempt to instill fear. She will assail the character of Barack and of Joe, in an attempt to make voters rethink their support for the Democratic ticket.

In other words: "liberal liberal liberal liberal, out-of-touch, shifty, not trustworthy, wishy-washy, effete, liberal liberal liberal liberal...."

She'll get points for being well-spoken, although she will say absolutely nothing of substance. She will be credited for going toe-to-toe with Biden. And GOP talkers will tell every interviewer that Palin did her job tonight, that she gave an "accurate" depiction of the Obama and Biden records and their scary liberal tendencies.

by Dmitri in San Diego 2008-10-02 12:00PM | 0 recs
Palin's Charlotte Strategy

She's gonna spider up and try to sell McCain's famous pig with one word and pivot her answer around it.

'Radiant', 'Terrific', 'Humble'.  I don't know what she's gonna do with 'Some Pig', maybe just put some lipstick on it.

I swear to god, if she uses just one of those words, I'm gonna shit myself.

by mydailydrunk 2008-10-02 01:01PM | 0 recs

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