Larry Sabato lays out the how the House is looking in his column at Rasmussen Reports:

Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year, adding at least half a dozen seats to their total of 236 (with 218 being needed for control of the chamber). When we updated our projections in June 2008, we suggested that up to a dozen new Democratic seats were in the forecast. With the international financial meltdown proceeding apace, and voters increasingly angry and fearful about their families' economic future, Republicans are suffering disproportionately. [...]

Therefore, we believe that Democrats have a solid chance to add 15 to 20 more House seats to their total, putting the party's seat share at 251 to 256 of 435 members (up to 59% of the total House)--the party's highest share since the first two years of the Clinton Administration (1993-1995).

Charlie Cook concurs and has upgraded 25 Democratic races. His new projections for November:

Once again, this is a political environment in which top-tier GOP candidates can lose, and second and even third-tier Democrats can break into contention late in the game. We are releasing ratings changes in 25 districts across the country, and revising our outlook to a Democratic gain of 20 to 25 seats in the House.

Several factors are contributing to what is looking like a Democratic wave up and down the ballot this year, including, of course, the economic crisis. But there also seems to be a sense among voters this year that we need to finish what we started in 2006, both literally, with Democratic challengers who are on their second attempts to oust Republican incumbents, and figuratively with new challengers who have a shot to take down incumbents who hung on by the skin of their teeth last cycle.

Here are some encouraging poll numbers from some of the races I'm watching this year:

• CT-04: Democrat Jim Himes is looking to oust faux moderate Bush enabler Chris "last Republican in New England" Shays this year after Shays won by a slim 3 points against Diane Farrell last cycle. Shays was always going to have a rough time with the coming Obama surge in this D+4 district, but the economic crisis appears to really be hurting him as the 4th is also a wealthy district just outside New York City that's been hit inordinately hard by the stock market crash. The latest Survey USA poll (602 LVs, Oct. 13-14, MOE +/- 4.1%) confirms that Himes is looking extremely strong against Shays 3 weeks out.

  Himes 48
  Shays 45

  More from SSP on the internals:

  Shays's favorables: 43-32; Himes: 39-22. Shays has a small lead among independents, 46-42, but it's not going to be enough. That's because Obama leads McCain 59-37 in this district - in other words, Democrats are energized. (Remember, Kerry carried this district by just six points.)

  You can donate to Jim over at ActBlue.

• WA-08: Progressive Democrat and netroots allstar Darcy Burner is on her second attempt to send faux moderate Dave Reichert packing and her steadiness and persistence seems to be paying off. After months of what looked like a stubborn 5 or 6 point lead for Reichert, we're now beginning to see some signs of movement toward Darcy. First there was a poll commissioned by The DCCC with Darcy ahead by 5 and now we have an internal poll from Lake Research Partners showing Darcy even further ahead (Sept. numbers in parentheses):

  Burner 47 (45)
  Reichert 40 (48)

  You can donate to Darcy over at ActBlue.

• CA-03:Democrat Bill Durston ran against incumbent Republican Dan Lungren two years ago and lost by more than 20%. Well, we're not in 2006 anymore and while Durston is back, the district is changing. David Dayen at Calitics elaborates:

  I have been watching the race in CA-03 for well over a year now. I've told my contacts in DC about Bill Durston and tried to get local progressives interested. The math was undeniable - if there was any seat primed to break through, it was this one. The demographic shifts mirrored CA-11, and Dan Lungren was arguably a less powerful incumbent than Richard Pombo, with less resources to draw from. Durston's first race against Lungren, in 2006, yielded the exact same result as McNerney's effort in 2004 (around 60-40), and since then the registration gap has tightened significantly (it's under 3 points and by election day it'll be closer to even).

  And indeed, the latest poll conducted by the Durston campaign bears this out (although the huge level of undecideds is a concern):

  Lungren 33
  Durston 30
  Undecided 30

  I really want to see more polling on this race but consider this a sleeper of the cycle and definitely one to watch. Durston is now on the DCCC Emerging Races ActBlue page where you can contribute to his campaign.

• AZ-03: Democrat Bob Lord is running to replace Bush rubber stamp John Shaddeg as the Representative of John McCain's home district in Congress. I first met Bob a couple months ago at an event here in Southern California and was immediately impressed with his blog savvy and his passion to be in Congress. I knew this guy would be one to watch, especially running against a guy who is so clearly out of touch with his district and who even announced his retirement only to renege shortly thereafter. It was clear that this race was a real opportunity and I'm glad to see a new poll commissioned by the DCCC shows Lord up by 1 over Shaddeg.

  Lord 45
  Shaddeg 44

  You can donate to Bob over at ActBlue.

Update [2008-10-16 17:8:27 by Todd Beeton]:

• CA-46: Holy crap, just received this via e-mail from the Debbie Cook campaign:

  The Capitol Weekly in Sacramento is reporting that GOP internal polling shows my race against Dana Rohrabacher to be in a statistical dead heat.

  The article says: "According to GOP sources, internal polling shows the difference between Rohrabacher and Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, to be within the margin of error, although Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook."

  Debbie Cook is the Mayor of Huntington Beach and is a smart, passionate pragmatic progressive whose expertise on energy would be a real asset in Congress. Her challenge to lazy crazy Dana Rohrabacher this cycle is the toughest he's ever had and it looks like she's closing in. Again, one to watch. Give to Debbie at ActBlue.