Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

by Jonathan Singer, Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 07:53:53 PM EDT

CNN focus group of undecided voters did not like the Ayers attack. The "Joe the plumber" story also tanked, according to the focus group. On who won the debate:

John McCain: 10 voters
Barack Obama: 15 voters

Update [2008-10-15 22:53:19 by Todd Beeton]:No numbers yet but from the MSNBC focus group, the way McCain talked about Ayers "backfired" among independents and Republicans.

Also, Democrats and Independents really liked Obama's line that "I can stand 3 weeks of attacks but the American people can not stand 4 more years of George W. Bush economic policies."

Update [2008-10-15 22:57:46 by Jonathan Singer]: Obama won the Fox News -- Fox News -- focus group of undecided voters. Said Frank Luntz: "None had made a decision to support Sen. Obama before the debate, but more than half supported after the debate. It was a good night for Barack Obama."Marc Ambinder writes that the CBS live focus group "seems to think McCain did well", however.

Update [2008-10-15 23:0:29 by Jonathan Singer]: The overall numbers from CBS News look great for Obama. Here is their survey of uncommitted supporters as to who won the debate:

McCain: 22 percent
Obama: 53 percent

Don't listen to the pundits -- it's the people who matter. And so far, they think Obama swept the debates.

Update [2008-10-15 23:6:39 by Jonathan Singer]: CNN's numbers among those viewing the debate were even rougher for McCain, whose favorable rating actually went down while his unfavorable rating went up:

Best Job in Debate
McCain: 31 percent
Obama: 58 percent
Obama Favorables
Favorable: 63 percent before debate --> 66 percent after debate
Unfavorable: 35 percent before debate --> 33 percent after debate
McCain Favorables
Favorable: 51 percent before debate --> 49 percent after debate
Unfavorable: 45 percent before debate --> 49 percent after debate

Ouch.

Update [2008-10-15 23:34:37 by Todd Beeton]:And check out these numbers from CNN:

Who would better handle the economy?
McCain: 35 percent
Obama: 59 percent
Who would better handle the financial crisis?
McCain: 35 percent
Obama: 56 percent
Who would better handle health care?
McCain: 31 percent
Obama: 62 percent
Who would better handle taxes?
McCain: 41 percent
Obama: 56 percent

Anderson Cooper: "David Gergen, if you're John McCain, what's the message...how does the race change now for John McCain?"

David Gergen: "Beats the hell out of me."

Pretty much sums it up.

Update [2008-10-15 23:53:53 by Todd Beeton]:Check out these ridiculous favorability numbers from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner during a focus group that began tilted toward John McCain but didn't end up that way:

McCain Favorables
Favorable: 54 percent before debate --> 50 percent after debate
Unfavorable: 34 percent before debate --> 48 percent after debate
Obama Favorables
Favorable: 42 percent before debate --> 72 percent after debate
Unfavorable: 42 percent before debate --> 22 percent after debate

The focus group was "decisive" for Obama.

Tags: Debate, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

'Americans are angry.' McCain was projecting. He lost on body language, big time.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 06:51PM | 0 recs

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Scheiffer was the big winner tonight

I thought he did a very good job. Does McCain have any clue about health care?

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-15 06:55PM | 0 recs

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Re: Scheiffer was the big winner tonight

For the most part, I agree. I thought he asked tough, probing questions with serious follow-ups, but I felt like he allowed McGrumpy to walk all over Obama (interrupting every other answer and talking the last word more often then not).

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-10-15 06:58PM | 0 recs

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Re: Scheiffer was the big winner tonight

He let McCain get the last word far too often, but I think he and Jim Lehrer were the best this year.

One thing I like, just in terms of fairness, was how he handled Ayers/ACORN. If he had asked about it, it would have been a gift to McCain; if he hadn't, he would have forced McCain to bring it up on his own. Instead he talked about "negative attacks", giving McCain a chance to bring it up if he wanted to, but not doing his dirty work for him.

by Jess81 2008-10-15 07:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Hillary is pitch perfect on CNN. What a pro. Ooops, there was the laugh... 'It could have been you' Ouch. Sigh.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 06:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

It give me the warm fuzzies to hear Hillary talk like that about Obama.

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-10-15 07:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Me too. Gotta' admit I'm conflicted.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

"It could have been you. C'mon, don't you hate him? Don't you want to throw out something negative about him? OK, we understand you can't. SomeonewhosupportsJohnMcCainsayswhat. No? OK, thanks for joining us. *Sigh*"

by TCQuad 2008-10-15 07:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Wolf is a media parasite, and apparently not that bright either; the putty around the window that keeps the glass in place.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

I can't stand Beard Blitzer. He's an idiot.

by fogiv 2008-10-15 07:19PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

I didnt watch since well my candidate isnt up there but i think intrade markets is a better indicator of who won and who lost than my opinion. BO up 4.5 and McCain down 5.2. So BO is at like 82 or so and McCain is down to 16.

That is bad news for McCain with 19 days until the election. And that says the betting folk think this isnt going to be close.

david

by giusd 2008-10-15 07:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Obama 58%, McCain 31%, CNN poll. Yes!

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Joe the Plumber is online now with Katie Couric. He's a TOTAL McCain plant.

by jlars 2008-10-15 07:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

"Joe the Plumber" is "in the tank" for McCain, lol!

Seriously, if you see your taxes raised under an Obama administration, you have to be rolling in dough.

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-10-15 07:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

She actually asked him if he was above $250K a year and he said no, but "it's a slippery slope."

by jlars 2008-10-15 07:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

CNN (favorable/unfavorable before and after):
Obama: 63/35 -> 66/33
McCain: 51/45 -> 49/49

Ouch. Just... ouch.

by TCQuad 2008-10-15 07:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

The deal, my friends, is sealed.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:07PM | 0 recs

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My takeaway from the debate- ``eloquent''

Somehow the whole debate seemed to be:
Obama- some great answer
McCain- Obama is eloquent. That is not Presidential. I will
l show you what Presidential means. some really
incoherent answer (this makes me non-Bush because
he is coherent)

by ann0nymous 2008-10-15 07:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

I'm very surprised and pleased it was that lopsided. I expected it would be close to 50/50, particularly since Obama was majority on defense.

In the second half of the debate I was listening but doing Excel work simultaneously. Those McCain facial expressions everyone is talking about must have been significant. I missed them, for the most part.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-10-15 07:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Who spent more time attacking their opponent?

Obama 7%, McCain 80%

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Seeing Rick Davis on CNN makes me realise the obstacles McCain has been facing. What a dipstick.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:18PM | 0 recs

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Rick Davis v. Hilllary Clinton?

NOw that is a surrogate exchange that doesn't seem too right for McCain.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-15 07:18PM | 0 recs

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And it's 1, 2, 3, what are we fighting for?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kti5FE4fy Kc

Nothing left but the voting.

by McCainBush08 2008-10-15 07:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: And it's 1, 2, 3, what are we fighting for?

Mojoed for the Country Joe and the Fish soundtrack. Lest we forget.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:24PM | 0 recs

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Count the Blinks Challenge

I make 21, you? So much for the whole not blinking narrative.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:22PM | 0 recs

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CBS News Poll Important

The CBS news poll is important because it only polls uncomitted voters. The fact that the poll has Obama winning big means that for all practical purposes McCain is finished.

In this time of crisis, while people want change, they also want a leader who is cool. Obama is cool and McCain is angry. That's why the CBS news crew was so wrong when they initially thought that McCain won the debate.

by Zzyzzy 2008-10-15 07:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

We are not "[his] friends" any more....

by Palli 2008-10-15 07:24PM | 0 recs

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Asked Gergen how does McCain change this?

Answer:

Beats the hell out of me....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-15 07:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: Asked Gergen how does McCain change this?

Best moment of the campaign as far as TV coverage for me, hands down.

by Deeg 2008-10-15 07:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: Asked Gergen how does McCain change this?

Jinx. Damn blockquotes.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:31PM | 0 recs

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Quote of the Day

Beats the hell out of me.

CNN talking head David Gergen

Sigh. Honesty in journalism is on the rise.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-15 07:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Plumbers named Joe:

McCain: 35 percent
Obama: 56 percent

Plumbers Not named Joe:

McCain: 31 percent
Obama: 62 percent

by QTG 2008-10-15 07:41PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

"The focus group was "decisive" for Obama."

Ummmm.... Yeah.

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-15 08:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Post-Debate Polls and Focus Groups

Just saw an Ad claiming that Obama gave Tony Rezko 14 million in tax dollars... and then bashing liberals in congress.

It was a joint ad between RNC and McCain in Iowa. Called Obama Unethical.

by JDF 2008-10-15 08:21PM | 0 recs

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Real Loser: Hofstra

Whoever the sound engineer for the debate was is the real loser because activating and deactivting the moderator's and the two debater's microphones as each of them speaks sucks because their initial responses were cut off....

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-10-15 09:16PM | 0 recs

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rolling of the eyes

I certainly hope that the media spends as much time bashing McCain over this as they did to Gore in 2000.
There is only one elitist in this race and it is obviously McCain. He believes that Obama is not even worthy to be on stage with him. I truly hope that this was the final nail in the coffin tonight, and that we are on our way to a landslide.

by gavoter 2008-10-15 09:35PM | 0 recs