Obama Rocking The Early Voting

by Todd Beeton, Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:15:46 AM EDT

Last night I mentioned Survey USA's Georgia early voting numbers that show Barack Obama with a 6% lead among those who've already voted (while McCain is ahead by 8%.) Nate Silver brings us all 5 states where SUSA has some early vote numbers and the results are rather stunning.

NM: Obama +23 (statewide: Obama +7)
OH: Obama +18 (statewide: Obama +5)
GA: Obama +6 (statewide: McCain +8)
IA: Obama +34 (statewide: Obama +13)
NC: Obama +34 (statewide: McCain +3)

As Nate says:

...Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

Is this a typical pattern for a Democrat? Actually, it's not. According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry. In the past, early voters have also tended to be older than the voting population as a whole and more male than the population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama or most other Democrats.

But no other Democrat has had a turnout operation like Barack does and no other Democrat has excited the youth and African-Americans the way Barack does. For just one indication of the enthusiasm driving this early vote, check out this dispatch from early voting in Georgia yesterday:

Just cast an early vote in Cobb County. Only took one hour, forty-five minutes -- exactly three weeks before Election Day.

A long line folded itself three times in a relatively hot October sun, shortly before lunch-time. Perhaps a dozen people couldn't stick it out -- they left before getting to the front of the line.

Every one of those who gave up the effort was white. Once in, not a single African-American walked away while I was there. If voter fatigue becomes a factor over the next three weeks, and on Election Day itself, one has to wonder if Republicans are more likely to lose out than Democrats.

And while Nate is right, of course, to point out that "it's unlikely that John McCain is actually losing all that many persuadable voters to the early voter tallies," I still maintain that every vote that McCain doesn't bank before election day, is one vote that is less likely to actually vote on election day. If this thing looks on Nov. 3rd to be a blowout for Obama, who do you think is more likely to stay home on the 4th?

Tags: Barack Obama, early voting, John McCain (all tags)

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16 Comments

Coatofarms
This is where I live

And I am going to vote after this last debate. I want Obama, to really clarify himself on this debate. If he does, I vote early for him.

by Trey Rentz 2008-10-15 11:28AM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

This is just an expression of the so-called "enthusiasm gap," as well as partially an "embarrassment gap," i.e. the tendency of those voting for McCain (and Bush in 04) to not report who they voted for accurately. Don't pay any attention to these numbers. And PLEASE, people, when the race begins to tighten, as it will surely do, don't freak out. This is not going to be an 8 point blowout. It's going to be 3-4 points at most.

by ColoradoGuy 2008-10-15 11:32AM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

I agree with you, it likely will be decided by 3-4 points. That would have been the high end minus the devastating economic news but now it's probably the median expectation, if not slightly on the low end.

One great sign is the teflon. If you look at the polls asking which candidate attacked unfairly, McCain is always double Obama's percentage. That's essentially a likability ratio. It means McCain is boxed in and only a major outside event can provide any chance of rescue.

Unlike primaries where like minded people can shift late on a dime, comebacks are for morons in a general election. The margins shift back toward the logical foundational level, but getting over the top is another matter entirely.

We'll see tightening polls and late hype over a McCain comeback. I hope it doesn't translate to irrational fear on progressive sites, based on recent losses and a fraud/here we go again attitude.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-10-15 02:41PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

I thought early voting didn't begin until October 16th in North Carolina. Is the number based on exit polling data or intention?

by Spiffarino 2008-10-15 11:39AM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

Absentee ballots. In person early vote starts tomorrow.

by sweet potato pie 2008-10-15 11:43AM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

Ah...got it. Thanks for clearing that up!

by Spiffarino 2008-10-15 05:28PM | 0 recs
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NC Early Voting Starts Tomorrow

Are we talking about absentee voting here.

by parahammer 2008-10-15 11:58AM | 0 recs
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Re: Any actual #'s??

I wish these had some vote totals on there - or even estimates.  That would provide a bit on insight on the % as a part of the larger electorate.

by al91206 2008-10-15 12:07PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

I'm in Az where we have also begun voting. Any numbers for this state? Obama is running ads regularly, and in prime time!

by dogeatdogi 2008-10-15 12:17PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

Early Voting started today in Tennessee.  The turnout in Memphis is really heavy - 45 minute wait to vote when normally takes 5-10 minutes.  People in line are very excited and talking about voting for Obama.  Saw one woman frowning whole time, so am guessing she was for McCain.

by lilaruby 2008-10-15 12:41PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

Doesn't absentee voters tend to be older? Wouldn't that spell doom for McCain if Obama is so far ahead in NC among the absentee votes?

by ND1979 2008-10-15 01:23PM | 0 recs
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Democratic early voting in Georgia

Has already prompted the Georgia House Majority Leader (Republican, shock!) to call for the elimination of early voting in the future.

He had included the expansion of early voting in his vicious voter id bill, clearly believing that it'd help the Republican Party.  But now that it isn't, it's time to do away with it.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared- blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/ 10/12/a_republican_wonders_if_early.html

I really hope, come the next president, that the putatively Democratic federal government will get off its ass and prevent political parties from gaming the system in favor of their voters.  Everyone should have an equal opportunity to vote.

by Drew 2008-10-15 01:23PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

More to the point, every vote banked now is one less vote to turn out on Election Day.  That makes life a bit easier for the organizers, and allows them to focus more on chasing the hard-to-get voters.

by Shai Sachs 2008-10-15 01:49PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

Good news but I remain cautious.

by MNPundit 2008-10-15 02:40PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Rocking The Early Voting

It's not the typical pattern for Democrats but it's the typical pattern for Obama.  I remember in Texas where reports of his dominating the early voting there had him up almost 90% on Intrade the morning of the election; it was only after the regular voting began that Hillary Clinton pulled ahead.

California is a counter-example, but that's because the early voting there happened before the campaign had even begun.

by Jess81 2008-10-15 02:56PM | 0 recs
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Left this out:

My point is just don't get overexcited about it.

by Jess81 2008-10-15 02:56PM | 0 recs

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