FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44

Obama ahead in Florida, Missouri, Virginia, and more.  Virginia is not even close.

I love the Missouri numbers too.  I wonder how McCain's cash is holding up.  I know that the GOP still has gobs of cash on hand, but they also have a lot more Senate seats that they now have to defend.   Their latests numbers might have them pouring money into places like Georgia.

Obama's decision to go private financing is really going to pay off in the last few weeks of the campaign.  The fact that less than 5 weeks out McCain is now going to have to spend in former Red states makes it that much less likely that he could flip any Kerry states.

OK, we are only 2% ahead

SEND MONEY, WORK YOUR RELATIVES, BURN OFFERING CANDLES...PRAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why do I feel like it is going to be a brutal October for both candidates?

Very happy to see these numbers.  Will be even happier if we see similar numbers a week from now.  At the very least, trend is in the right direction.

Virginia is so amazing!! Florida is FOR REAL.  Yes!!!  America is finally waking up.  McCain blew it when he chose Palin.  He was probably done any way.

1. I've been sticking with 291 for Obama but I am taking another look.

2. What's the matter with Flordia (snark)? It's been shifting in Obama's favor ever since the Republican convention. What happened that week to move people?

3. If McCain remains behind later this month, he's going to need a hail-mary state. I would say PA, but it's damn expensive to fully contest. My guess is he'll pull out all the stops in Michigan and Wisconsin.

4. Someone on Daily Kos said he was a teacher in Western NC. He just held a mock election for Weekly Reader I think) there and his students, white and upper-middle class went for Obama, boys AND girls. Are they reflecting their parents or they just think Obama is cool?

5. Will Palin's likely debate win tomorrow night have an impact?

6. Considering how Indiana is teetering on the edge, if Obama wins OH and MI, he'll pull the Hoosier State with them.

7. McCain is reportedly running local ads in Kentucky. It is the Lexington market, so it is not intended for OH, IN or VA.

8. Every day I feel more confident about Virginia.

9. Every day I am less confident about Ohio.

10. Congressional Republicans are toast in November.

in these polls.  Most, if not all, of the polling firms have already, or will shortly, be switching from a registered voters model to a likely voters model.  Depending on how they weight various groups as 'likely', we may start to see real variation between polling companies.

As for the wiggle room -- GOTV efforts.  If the models are using past youth, AA or Hispanic voter turnout numbers, we can blow past those poll numbers and leave them in the dust.

Everyone get to your local campaign HQ and volunteer to go door to door to remind Democrats to vote.  Offer rides to the polls.  Be armed with how to get to the polling place in that area.

My goal:  I will not rest until every Democrat in my assigned area has cast a ballot in this election.

I just have a hard time seeing one (short of a Bin Laden reveal,) that would be a game changer and honestly I am not sure that would be game changer either... because nobody would believe McCain had anything to do with it and I don't think it would greatly increase Bush's popularity.  

From Real Clear Poliics

Strategic Vision will be releasing a poll in Wisconsin tomorrow showing Obama leading McCain by 9 points, 49 to 40, with 2% for other candidates and 9% undecided. The poll was conducted September 22-26.

ARG!!!  ARG!!! ARG!!!

LOL, looks good :)