I think a fair number of people will -- especially if pushed -- say they are open-minded and willing to reconsider their vote, especially when that is cast as as a good thing.

But has any poll ever shown Obama or McCain at 60%.  That's what 20% changing their minds looks lie.  No, correct that, if 20% switched the electin would be 70-30 for someone.  That will not happen, because everyone knows people are not that persuadable.  

I think it's a given, and I think the Obama folks understand this as well.

its good to have a reality check, but then you do have to admit that
3 polls came out today giving Obama the lead in Florida at this point its not a dead heat anymore.

sure anything can happen but polling is a snap shot, and right now the numbers show Obama with a clear lead and heading for a landslide.

yes, we don't wanna get lazy and lose the lead.

but I am tired of the hey don't get excited yet.

22 state and national polls are out so far today

Obama leads in 19 of them, 1 of them is Okalahoma.

I think we can have our day and enjoy our lead.

It may come down to who swing voters can trust in a crisis.  And white women.

The current financial crisis could wind up helping McCain, even though he's "out of touch"
on economic issues.

The outcome of the rescue bill is very important.
Its failure could win the election for McCain, since Obama is investing a lot of capital on its passage.

The last month of the race, let's face it, has been a pendulum, and there's nothing which says McCain can't win voters back.  Having said that, if the Dems keep on him I don't think he will.  But this is one race which will only be over when it's over.  If Obama were up by 20% I wouldn't say he had a lock.

No one should discount the vested interest the media has, btw, in prolonging the public's perception that this is a very close race.  So long as Palin doesn't say anything too stupid tomorrow have little doubt talking heads will spin it as some sort of victory for her.  Then McCain and Obama will go head to head in a town hall, and the media should spin this as a comeback for him.  If Obama does at all well during the last debate, though, think McCain will be done (he'll be out of game changers).  

And the story, all along, could have been that voters were ready to vote for Obama (ie. change) so long as he didn't do anything too stupid, but that doesn't build ratings, so this will be reported as a horse race instead ("And Obama inches forward, could be anybody's race, but there he goes to the finish line", etc.).

I needed it.

I mean, who's doing the "pushing voters hard" thing? Some Teamsters? I have union roots going back to the 1930's, and god I miss the AFL-CIO machinery (those folks could GOTV!). But I am always skeptical about these secret internal polls that show something so different from all the public polls.

1. Show me the data. Something I learned in engineering school. Put your numbers on the table. Explain your methodology. Then maybe I'll believe them.

2. These other guys make their living polling. A big part of their future income is based on how accurate they are this cycle.

3. Law of large numbers. I've got a whole bunch of polls showing ABC over here. I got one over there say XYZ. Who's the outlier? Why should I believe the ONE? (See #1 above)

That aside, I don't think any of us are feeling complacent. Nobody feels like this is in the bag. Way too far to go. But it's a long hard climb out of this hole for McCain. And his negatives (Palin, he sucks on the economy, more and more his age) aren't going away.

Perceptions and opinions are beginning to harden. Obama may have some unknowness to him; there may be uncertainty among low information voters. But the discomfort level is getting higher everyday for McCain/Palin; and that's hard to overcome.

Other intrinsic factors, beyond polls, are at play, and manifesting themselves as the convention bounces fade into history. Economy sucks, Democratic voter ID and registrations are far higher than GOP numbers, incumbent party fatigue, etc. These are barriers to McCain making a comeback.

Thanks for keeping everyone motivated and focused. But I am not convinced so many polls are so wrong.

Of course we need to be prudent, but let's be honest here:  McCain always faced an uphill climb.  It was just made worse with the economic issue, his erratic behavior, humorless and dour campaigning, net-negative Palin pick.  Have we forgotten that on issue after issue (ALL 10 most important issues to Americans) generic Democrats and the overall Democratic brand have major advantages?

 This happens to be a toxic year for the Republican brand, it usually never happens that the party that occupies the White House for 8 years wins another term - NEVER following an unpopular president.  Democrats have registered in record numbers and hold numeric advantages in almost allof the battleground states, again, in a year that has a decided "generic" anti-Republican mood underlying it all.  

Never celebrate too early, but IMHO hell would have to freeze over to change the momentum again so dramatically as to give McCain a magic lift to an EV victory.