333 - 205

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 08:23:26 AM EDT

With the polls out thus far this week, Obama has pulled ahead in the MyDD EV counter (compiled by latest poll average of RCP, 538 & Pollster) in Ohio and Florida, giving him a 333 - 205 EV lead over McCain.

Keep in mind that the difference between a 269 - 269 tie and a 333 - 205 lead is very slim; with just 4 states where Obama has a slim advantage, all four flipping would revert that lead to a tie:

Ohio, by .6 percent
Florida, by 1.1 percent
New Hampshire, by .7 percent
Virginia, by 1.3 percent


But also note that Obama has 2 other states where he's very close:

North Carolina, behind 1.6 percent
Nevada, behind 1.7 percent


And in 2 more states, Obama is within striking range:

Indiana, behind 2.3 percent
Missouri, behind 3.7 percent

The past three weeks have clobbered McCain's chances in his targeted blue states, of PA, WI, MI, MN, and the red states of IA and NM are also far away in Obama's column. Only in Colorado, has McCain inched a bit closer the past week, and is now trailing Obama by 3.6 percent.

It comes down to McCain having to win every state that's within 2% at the moment, including New Hampshire, for a tie; or win them all w/o NH, and take a state like Colorado, for the win. That shouldn't come off as a huge lead for Obama, because its not, and neither is it insurmountable. These are all red states in 2004, and there's a possibility of conservative fatigue playing out with the polls, if the lack of Republicans being polled doesn't translate into a similar lack of Republicans voting. The polls can be wrong, but that's what we've got, and it shows Obama with the much stronger edge right now.

Update [2008-10-1 13:6:46 by Jerome Armstrong]: As for the national numbers, Peter Feld, This Ain't Over:

Some may reasonably think McCain has already permanently branded himself as a desperate, washed-up gambler holding his campaign together with flypaper and selfishly disrupting delicate negotiations at the exact moment when Americans are begging for a rational grown-up who'll take charge. If that's so, look for Obama's numbers to tip above 50 and stay there — which will mean that McCain has run out of road. Until that happens, I'd keep the irrational exuberance in check. For the time being, I would mentally spot McCain 46% in any poll. Assume that the remaining undecideds could break two to one in his favor (yes, racism's a factor), do the math, and see if that still leaves Obama ahead. Right now, it looks like that's the case.
Right now, Obama is at 49.1 on RCP, and 49.4 on Pollster. Spot McCain 46 and go with Feld's projections on the undecideds. That works out to Obama having a projected 50.8 - 49.2 two-person projected lead over McCain. That sounds conservatively correct.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)

Comments

43 Comments

Shadow_head_small
I'll take our position to theirs, any day.

That isn't a statement of complacency, but if we were all GOP supporters the gnashing of teeth would be deafening.

by chrisblask 2008-10-01 08:28AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Why we lose

The Republicans never let on they are behind.

Even when in a dire situation such as McCain has found himself in, they manage to exude some semblance of confidence (although I agree it is waning).

We deride it as delusion, but I believe even misplaced confidence and strength can account of a sliver of the poll percentage.

A few weeks ago, John McCain had his dead cat bounce, and the panicky navel-gazing hand-wringing defeatism spread through this site like wildfire.

by iohs2008 2008-10-01 08:50AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Why we lose

There is no dire situation, they're not behind.

As I see on Fox, at worst there are some battleground states:

by January 20 2008-10-01 11:57AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
I love the lady in the background yanking her

husband's hand down when he raised it for McCain, then they both raise them (she raises both) for Obama.

by chrisblask 2008-10-01 01:21PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: I love the lady in the background yanking her

I saw that. It speaks volumes....

by xodus1914 2008-10-01 01:33PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: I love the lady in the background yanking her

Exactly!

That was the divided vote the reporter saw.

He has specially refined Fox Election Viewing Selection Vision (TM)

by January 20 2008-10-01 03:57PM | 0 recs
The mollusk bathing
Re: 333 - 205

I realize two weeks is a lifetime in politics, meaning that we still have about two lifetimes before the election.  But at this point, it's just difficult to picture John McCain getting elected.  You can almost sense that even supporters of McCain would be startled to find that he won.  Stranger things have happened.  Like, for instance, that time we gave all of our money to Wall Street billionaires despite widespread public disgust with the plan.  But nevertheless, John McCain just doesn't look like a winning candidate at this point.  I've thought this since about last Saturday or so.  The recent polls are nice, but even if they were tied in a few more states, I don't think the overall feeling would be terribly different.

The things I see as a potential downfall for Obama at this point are - enormous amounts of digust with the bailout plan;  Palin over-achieving in the debates; something totally unexpected, like war with Iran or Pakistan; an Obama gaffe of monumental proportions.

And really, I think it would take some combination of the scenarios I just listed.  It's not outside the realm of possibility, but McCain has a very steep hill to climb and not much gunpowder left.

by the mollusk 2008-10-01 08:30AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
The Great Equalizer is the MSM

Forever confusing ballance with fairness, I believe the MSM will increasingly try to level the playing field.

I think we caught our first glimpse in the first debate, where the talking heads were like: slight McCain, and the people who watched were like: uh, not so much.

I think we are at greatest risk from increasing out of proportions any Obama gaffe will be blown or a McCain Mavrick (sic.) move will be lauded.

by iohs2008 2008-10-01 08:57AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: The Great Equalizer is the MSM

Watching the debate I thought the performances where close to equal, McCain had some difficulties, and that is what go picked up upon, the narrative could just as easy have been "Why did Obama stutter so much?" Or "Why did Obama interrupt McCain so often?". Fortunately it wasn't. The poll bounce, IMo, was an expectations bounce. Obama did well enough that enough undecided people could now see him as president, and that is an excellent thing.

by notedgeways 2008-10-01 09:50AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
I saw Obama's Nevada speech

and I thought it was excellent. He addressed this idea of cutting programs because of the bailout in a specific way. Obama is not going to let the right wing destroy our progressive agenda. He knows what kind of crap they are going to pull and he'll be ready for it when he is prez.

I bet he won over a lot of Nevadans with his speech.

by Lolis 2008-10-01 08:31AM | 0 recs
The mollusk bathing
Re: I saw Obama's Nevada speech

just out of curiosity, can you remember which programs he proposed cutting?

by the mollusk 2008-10-01 08:37AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
One was that disastrous

reading program that required schools to buy Jeb Bush's super duper over-priced learn to read package.

by GFORD 2008-10-01 09:10AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

I refuse to relax or cheer until Nov 5th.

by jsfox 2008-10-01 08:40AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

SINE DIE!!!!!

by xodus1914 2008-10-01 12:56PM | 0 recs
My-meetup1
Re: 333 - 205

"It's the economy stupid!" McInsain's only chance is to come up with some kind of Dramatic move! I can't think of any, can you? His frustration is starting to really show. He is angry and it's showing.

by eddieb 2008-10-01 08:41AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Well, there was Palin

She was the first attempt, and it worked for about 2 weeks.

Don't put it past His Mavrickitudedness to try to flash something shiny in front of the MSM's eyes come mid October.

by iohs2008 2008-10-01 08:53AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
We are 10 points behind....

We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....We are 10 points behind....

THAT'S the message I want Axelrod sending out to the troops.

KEEP THE KETTLE ON HIGH!

KEEP SENDING MONEY TILL IT HURTS!

If there is a hammer to be dropped, I want it dropped SO HARD Faux News has to pass out Zantac by the bucket load to it's staff on Nov 5th....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-01 08:44AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
No Quarter

No, not the flowbee site (is that thing still around).

No. I'm talking about the original meaning from the days of pirates.

The first flag a pirate ship would fly is the white flag, indicating that the targetted vessel should surrender. If the target vessel did not respond, the pirates would fly the black skull and crossbones, which conveyed the message loud and clear to surrender or else. If the target vessel did not respond to the black skull and cross bones, then the pirates would fly a red flag, meaning that indeed, no quarter was to be given.

I want to be sitting at home watching the election results come in on Faux News laughing my arse off. I want to be tuning in for the suicide watch on the Rush Limbaugh show. I want to laugh in hysterics at Sean Hannity going absolutely apopleptic. I want them to feel like their hate-filled lives are over. I want the rule of law restored and justice for those who have sinned against our constitution and our name restored to the world.

by iohs2008 2008-10-01 09:06AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: No Quarter

I like the flag.

You seem to take your politics quite personally.    

by Mose 2008-10-01 09:26AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
I've been telling people

it's not enough just to win.  We know the Republicans will cheating, they always cheat.  The only way to prevent their cheating from working is to win by a huge margin.

Oh, and I also heard that the October surprise might be Palin's daughter's wedding.  I guess they figure it will harness all the media attention for about a week before the elections.  Anybody here have any interest in watching it?  Nah, me neither.

by GFORD 2008-10-01 09:14AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: I've been telling people

If the wedding is the best they can do, Obama will sail into the White House.

by sneakers563 2008-10-01 09:42AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: I've been telling people

Yeah, PEOPLE MAGAZINE is the best shot they have?

So, Bristol gets married and my 401K loses 1/3 it's value.

That seems about equal to me as stories...

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-01 10:40AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

If you Cant Make It, Now It Seems You Can Fake It!  I have been in the real estate business for over 30 years!  Many Many colleagues have told me about their "secrets" to close the deal in order to make the standard 6 percent commission!  Using fake documentation for someone that couldn't qualify under a "normal" loan WAS ENCOURAGED!  With Websites like www.FAKEPAYCHECKSTUBS.com out there, it seems like the "hungry" real estate professional used it's services to defraud the Lender and "help" the loan through the pipeline!  SIC  When is big print going to write about real estates dirty little secret?  

by creditloanguy 2008-10-01 08:55AM | 0 recs
My-meetup1
Re: 333 - 205

When that Lipsticked PIG can fly. That's when.

by eddieb 2008-10-01 08:57AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Absolutely true.

The marriage of real estate agents to independent mortgage lenders made all that possible.

by GFORD 2008-10-01 09:16AM | 0 recs
My-meetup1
MOM always says "NEVER GOOD ENOUGH!"

We should be ahead by 20%. Thats what the talking heads always say on the TeeeeVeeeee. Therefore my goal is to work my ass off util we reach and surpass that number! "TAKE NO PRISONERS!!!"

by eddieb 2008-10-01 08:55AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205
I would give McCain Ohio if we can have North Carolina and Nevada.  
Look Ohio is going to lose probably 2 EV before 2012 while Nevada and North Carolina will probably gain 2-3 between them.  If we want to have an easier time winning elections we need to do better in the South and in the West.
by gavoter 2008-10-01 08:57AM | 0 recs
My-meetup1
Re: 333 - 205

Don't give McInsain anything! Why not take the all!

by eddieb 2008-10-01 08:59AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

Well I would love to have it all, but if it came down to a choice and I could have one or the other, I would chose Nevada and North Carolina.  

I say that also in terms of where resources should be spent.

Kay Hagen is surging in NC right now and she might actually have coat tails to help pull Obama over the top.

by gavoter 2008-10-01 09:04AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Odd point of view

Down ticket race having coattails on its head to help the top of the ticket?

by GFORD 2008-10-01 09:18AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Odd point of view

It worked for Jeb in Florida 2000.

by Why Not 2008-10-01 01:22PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

I like how you think. We need to start planning for the 2012 map...
If we win Va and make a serious showing in NC. I think LBJ's 'generation' make be drawing to a close.

I will say this, when Obama wins, I hope the Democratic Party doesn't ignore it's newer, widened, base of Blacks, Latinos and Generation 'Y'ers .

by xodus1914 2008-10-01 01:31PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

Yep.  Anything by Jerome to make this thing closer than it actually is.  Obama is going to win this thing by a 52-47 margin with about 330 electoral votes.

by Marylander 2008-10-01 09:12AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Think what fun we'll all have

after the election when we come on here to deride Jerome for being so sceptical.  I for one am looking forward to it. :)

by GFORD 2008-10-01 09:20AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Think what fun we'll all have

Me too.

Jerome has provided some of the worst analysis that I have seen. He forgets that early voting is going on in places like Virginia,Ohio, and North Carolina where Obama will have an advantage which are not showing up in the polls yet.

Jerome wants Obama to lose so bad so that he can say I told you so that instead of blasting racism and using his platform to condemn it, he constantly points to articles that show how bad racism will be for Obama and doom him. Jerome a progressive? Please.

Also, Undecideds break differently in different states as was seen in the primaries.  Jerome needs to just step away from this site until after the election.

by sweet potato pie 2008-10-01 09:28AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

McCain has already WON. All these are noise. A Hillary supporter, turned indpendent recently now has become a Republican after the Bailout vote in congress. I will NOT vote for Democrats even for downtickets.

by Avistan 2008-10-01 09:25AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

Silly Troll.  You were never going to support democrats anyway.  Have a nice day!

by NewOaklandDem 2008-10-01 09:42AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

I loved your drunken A-rab rant on YouTube.  You should really start putting out more videos.   Very funny.

by gavoter 2008-10-01 10:03AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

Hey, you always WERE a Republican, just another moran from the right.

Glad you found your home with the wingnuts, it's where you belong.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-01 10:41AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: 333 - 205

Who the hell is Peter Fuld?

That being said, no, this isn't over.  Obama's lead came very quickly and it can evaporate very quickly.  Keep working.

by leshrac55 2008-10-01 09:35AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
My Notes
  1. I've been sticking with 291 for Obama but I am taking another look.
  2. What's the matter with Flordia (snark)? It's been shifting in Obama's favor ever since the Republican convention. What happened that week to move people?
  3. If McCain remains behind later this month, he's going to need a hail-mary state. I would say PA, but it's damn expensive to fully contest. My guess is he'll pull out all the stops in Michigan and Wisconsin.
  4. Someone on Daily Kos said he was a teacher in Western NC. He just held a mock election for Weekly Reader I think) there and his students, white and upper-middle class went for Obama, boys AND girls. Are they reflecting their parents or they just think Obama is cool?
  5. Will Palin's likely debate win tomorrow night have an impact?
  6. Considering how Indiana is teetering on the edge, if Obama wins OH and MI, he'll pull the Hoosier State with them.
  7. McCain is reportedly running local ads in Kentucky. It is the Lexington market, so it is not intended for OH, IN or VA.
  8. Every day I feel more confident about Virginia.
  9. Every day I am less confident about Ohio.
  10. Congressional Republicans are toast in November.
by RandyMI 2008-10-01 10:21AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Tie goes to Obama-Biden

Remember, the NEWLY ELECTED House and Senate would pick the President and Vice President respectively in the event of an electoral college tie.

And, it seems likely that Obama would win the popular vote, in which case it would be an easily justified decision by the Democratic Congress to select Obama.

Now, technically speaking, the new House would have to vote by congressional delegation, so it may also depend on who won more Congressional districts.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2008-10-01 10:50AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Tie goes to Obama-Biden

They vote by delegation AND someone must get 26 delegations to be elected. It would be difficult for either McCain or Obama to accomplish this.

If it were a tie in the Electoral College I think the most likely conclusion is a Biden administration.

by JDF 2008-10-01 11:23AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------