According to the Concord's early returns, she is doing well enough to avoid a knock out.  She was ahead by 12% in Florida today...this might be enough for her to carry MI and FL going into 2/5.

If she pulls this off, I want a front seat to watch the explosion of Chris Matthews' head.  

Actually, Jerome, I am curious. Who were the bloggers saying that Obama had secured the nomination after winning Iowa?

I want to sit next to you to watch Matthews.

OFF with Matthews' head!!!

if we calculate using male/female split from CNN exit polls, we get this:

Spreadsheet.

So why were all the polls but Suffolk wrong? Not enough Dem voters? It certainly looks like an absolute FLOOD of Ds from what we can see.

Second question, if Clinton does become the nominee, can she bring out indies or are we looking at another 51-49 type battle?

I'd love to have a 3 way race through April.  It would be wonderful to actually have my Caucus vote (in Kansas) Count.

AND everyone I work with supports Edwards.  For the health care & anti-corporate language.

FOX: Exit polls said McCain 35, Romney 30 and Obama 39, Clinton 34

should have been running around talking about how strong Clinton was in NH--"it's her firewall, stronghold, etc"--but instead they seemed to have bought the hype about a blowout.

It seems from the exit polls that McCain stole some indies from Obama.

That said, it's early: Obama could still win by 7-8.

and I'm kind of thrilled because frankly both Obama and Hillary have terrible positions, corporate lobbyist positions on economic issues.  Seriously, just look at the recent trade votes of Obama.  Getting a trade/economic policy that is in the national interest is near impossible due to the big money influence/demands so I feel the only way to get anywhere is to have a real battle where one of them has to pay token attention to the middle class.

I'm also kind of thrilled because I feel Corporate Hillary is getting some serious sexism thrown her way and that's uncool.  I also note some idiot forwarded me the brazen racist attack against Obama via emails.

If Clinton wins this, we are looking at another election where the Democrat loses the independent vote and probably the general election.  

Obama is said to already have made travel plans to get an expected endorsement from the powerful Culinary Workers union in Nevada on Friday

Can we have a source that Obama's already made travel plans?

Sorry. Trust, but verify.

obama is going to win by double digits according to the polls.

anything less than 15 percent is a victory.

I think it's more Kos + various posters on blogs, but yeah --

I'm shocked by this.  I think that, frankly - the letter to TPM nails it.   I don't mean to take anything at all away from Clinton - but I think we're seeing some backlash from people that were more than just a bit pissed about the media and their treatment of Hillary Clinton.  I can't disagree with that sentiment... if I could cast both symbolic "piss off the media" and "for Democratic Presidential nominee" votes, I'd probably split 'em between Clinton and Obama.

We still aren't going to see a race decided by superdelegates and multiple convention roll calls... I WILL stand by that prediction all the way through the last primary/I'm proven wrong.

Clinton's cleaning up in Nashua, too...if this keeps up she's definitely going to take this thing...Obama needs the upper valley to come in strong for him as well as salem, derry, exeter, and durham.

something the networks know regarding where the results have come from or exit polling, no?

A few spurts in both directions here or there - but I'm not seeing a trend that's moving this margin back towards Obama.

So Clinton gets the "win" -- regardless of how it turns out.

Rate the win...

If the current numbers hold, and she wins -- hell, wins at all, forget 3-4 points -- she's back in the driver's seat.... and I gotta start really working on my Edwards leaning friends :-)

If Obama scrapes back with an insignificant win - the momentum is gone from Obama and back in Hillary's camp

If Obama can somehow, by some geographic miracle, make it a 2-3-4 pt win, I think he can salvage a "tie" if his team plays it right... AND they still get the NV culinary endorsement.

I don't see any way Obama can expect anything more than that....

Hillary is still not down 15 percent yet

that is a win.
If what i heard is correct that hillary won dems in a democratic party is really big

Marc Ambinder says that the "Obama leadership cloistered to figure out why" Clinton seems poised to win. Any suggestions?

God, I hope nobody suggests race as the reason why there was a big difference between the polls and the final results, if these numbers hold up. I thought we firmly killed that meme with Iowa.

At this rate, the only question is going to be who calls it first for Clinton

Of course, if Obama wins this thing, you're going to have quite a bit of egg on your face, akin to those who called NH for Obama before the polls closed. ;)

3%/2,800 votes

It's not over yet.

Miracle worker!

That's my suggestion.

CNN's  exit poll is up and the youth vote stats are REALLY interesting (if still preliminary).

Overall, youth turnout looks to be up.  Turnout is up across the state - among all demographics - and young voters are currently projected to be 18% of the electorate - up from 14% in 2004.  This means the hard turnout numbers (how many 18-29 year old actually cast a ballot) is also likely way up.

18 - 24 year olds: 11% of the electorate - Obama winning with 61%
25 - 29 year olds: 7% of the electorate - Clinton winning narrowly 37% - 34%

In Iowa, Obama carried both the 17-24 and 25-29 demographics with 57% of the vote.  Clinton cutting into his lead among the older Millennials could be bad news for Obama.

It looks like Clinton's 5 day youth blitz might be paying dividends.  If so, I'll be eating crow tonight.

i'll provide insight for why Clinton won IF she does. I don't think she will. But early thoughts for why its close thus far...shaheen machine/media backlash

Suggestions?  We all want to vote in the primary.  And the people of New Hampshire wanted to give us that chance.

Who knows?  Maybe Obama's support just isn't that deep.

Just goes to show that everyone loves an underdog.

2 reasons

The Clinton ground game GOTV worked really well.  Obama won the GOTV in Iowa.

McCain pulled in a lot of independents that otherwise might have gone to Obama.

From Kos..
Unfortunately, based on the precinct reporting data found here, most of the areas that I would expect to be strongholds for Obama -- like Porsmouth, Keene, Dover, Manchester and Concord -- have already voted. There are a few left, like Hanover and Durham, but I don't think it will be enought to make a difference. I think Hillary is going to pull thi sone off.

And I didn't need any fancy-pants analysis to do it. :)

Easy as pie.

turn out is higher?

This is VERY interesting.

Oh man, Clinton's winning Salem, too...