Exit Poll Pointing To A Clinton Victory?

Wow. Look at these exit poll numbers from CNN. Digging into them, it's hard to see how Obama wins.

Women turnout was huge, making  up 57% of the vote, 47% of which went to Clinton vs. 34% for Obama. Clinton beat Obama by 13% among women; Obama beat Clinton by 12% among men, but men just didn't turn out.

Also, 39% of voters said the economy is the most important issue; among those voters, Clinton beat Obama 44% to 35%.

And here's a statistic that may indicate that Clinton's post-Iowa focus on her experience, urging voters to vote pragmatically married with an attempt to humanize her may have paid off. According to the exit poll, people overwhelmingly voted based on issues over personal qualities 58% to 39%. Clinton won issues voters by 5% but lost on personal qualities by just 7%.

This could be a real shocker.

Update [2008-1-8 21:32:20 by Todd Beeton]:Just heard on CNN that the Clinton campaign is nervous about higher turnout (2000 votes higher) than expected in Hanover where Dartmouth College is located.

Update [2008-1-8 21:56:41 by Todd Beeton]:Donna Brazille on CNN said Clinton could be the "comeback gal." Ralph Reed said if Hillary does win, he believes the tear at the diner will go down as the defining moment of the campaign will. I promise that is the last time I ever quote Ralph Reed. Ever.

Update [2008-1-8 22:40:40 by Todd Beeton]:The answer is: yes.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, exit polls, Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire (all tags)

Comments

10 Comments

Re: Exit Poll Pointing To A Clinton Victory?

Very interesting stuff. I can still see a tactical Obama victory, because the college towns and more affluent areas (Obama territory) have not reported to the extent that the blue-collar areas have (Clinton country). However, if Clinton loses by only 3% or so, she can (or at least try to) claim a victory.

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 04:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Exit Poll Pointing To A Clinton Victory?

Exit poll: Whites (95% of total):
Clinton 40%, Obama 36%

There aren't enough non-whites to make up the difference.

Then again, exit polls have been wrong before, so take with a grain of salt.

by slb36cornell 2008-01-08 04:34PM | 0 recs
either way whoever wins

can i please get an apology?

I tried to tell everyone on this site.

It could happen.

anything less than a double digit blowout is a win for hillary.

9:33  no blowout yet.

cable tv is depressed.

by yellowdem1129 2008-01-08 04:34PM | 0 recs
Re: either way whoever wins

you still deserve an apology because of how close it is. I'm sorry man! Damn and I didn;t even bash you.

by world dictator 2008-01-08 04:59PM | 0 recs
Re: either way whoever wins

Yes yellowdem1129.  I totally apologize.  I took alot of my frustrations with the BO supporters out on you. Please forgive me.

by lonnette33 2008-01-08 05:00PM | 0 recs
Re: either way whoever wins

You were certainly right and should get credit for that.  Without question, I misread the race in NH.  

by HSTruman 2008-01-08 05:00PM | 0 recs
Oh come on Todd...

...Ralph Reed was almost the Lt. Governor of Georgia.  Almost meaning that he lost in the Republican primary.

by Andre Walker 2008-01-08 04:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Exit Poll Pointing To A Clinton Victory?

To be honest, I think the whole Hillary "tear up" story had little to no influence on this race. The fact is that she did a lot better amongst female voters (whom she lost in Iowa) and working-class voters, where she was expected to do pretty well. She's still losing the affluent/college voters.

Much of this has to do with the fact that the demographics are returning to the pre-Iowa expectations. The "tear incident" had nothing to do with it.

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 05:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Exit Poll Pointing To A Clinton Victory?

Ralph Reed? I thought he had slunk away in disgrace to become an embittered hermit. Apparently not. One thing is certain, though: When he talks, it's not worth listening to. The hell what he thinks.

by Zeno 2008-01-08 05:06PM | 0 recs
Remember Ohio in 2004?

Initial exit polling had Kerry winning. However, when you looked at the demographics, you would have to believe that 55% of the voters were women. Which, we all sadly know, was not the case.

Did women really outvote men by that much in NH, or, for some reason, are women more likely to respond to an exit poll?

by Bob Miller 2008-01-08 05:28PM | 0 recs

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