Exit Poll Pointing To A Clinton Victory?
by Todd Beeton, Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:56:41 PM EST
Wow. Look at these exit poll numbers from CNN. Digging into them, it's hard to see how Obama wins.
Women turnout was huge, making up 57% of the vote, 47% of which went to Clinton vs. 34% for Obama. Clinton beat Obama by 13% among women; Obama beat Clinton by 12% among men, but men just didn't turn out.
Also, 39% of voters said the economy is the most important issue; among those voters, Clinton beat Obama 44% to 35%.
And here's a statistic that may indicate that Clinton's post-Iowa focus on her experience, urging voters to vote pragmatically married with an attempt to humanize her may have paid off. According to the exit poll, people overwhelmingly voted based on issues over personal qualities 58% to 39%. Clinton won issues voters by 5% but lost on personal qualities by just 7%.
This could be a real shocker.
Update [2008-1-8 21:32:20 by Todd Beeton]:Just heard on CNN that the Clinton campaign is nervous about higher turnout (2000 votes higher) than expected in Hanover where Dartmouth College is located.
Update [2008-1-8 21:56:41 by Todd Beeton]:Donna Brazille on CNN said Clinton could be the "comeback gal." Ralph Reed said if Hillary does win, he believes the tear at the diner will go down as the defining moment of the campaign will. I promise that is the last time I ever quote Ralph Reed. Ever.
Update [2008-1-8 22:40:40 by Todd Beeton]:The answer is: yes.