City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In, Obama's Are Not
by Nathan Empsall, Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:06:28 PM EST
Looking at specific city returns on MSNBC, the more progressive precincts have not yet reported. 70% of Manchester precincts are in - Clinton was leading the Manchester area in the final UNH poll 34-19-19. No precincts from Hanover, Lebanon, or Claremont have reported, but UNH gave Obama 42% of the vote in the Connecticut Valley. No precincts from Berlin have reported, but Obama was leading with 40% there.
The overall UNH poll had Obama up, 39-30, and so far we're seeing its regional predictions come true. Pay attention to which precincts have reported. Clinton's strongholds are in, Obama's and Edwards' are not. Let that speak for itself.
Update 9:43pm: I want to stress, the returns so far are consistent with the UNH/CNN/WMUR poll, which does have Obama winning. Yes, the cities I listed - which still aren't in - are small, but they are representative of the state's rural areas. I.E., Berlin may only be a few thousand votes, but it is representative of the North Country. Add those regions together, and they can check at least a victory in Manchester. All I've got right now is MSNBC, but I'm told NPR has said something similar. County chairmen have told me the Dems up north are more liberal, down south (Manchester) more moderate. I continue to think Obama will win, just by a narrower margin than expected.
Update 10:31: NBC is calling it for Clinton, which is weird since Olbermann has been spending the last ten minutes talking about Hanover, which still isn't in, being a mystery. I think the call is premature.
Update 11:44: My prediction was wrong, but my thinking was clear. Obama did at least narrow the gap: Durham and Hanover pulled it to 39-37, two points instead of three. This must be why he didn't speak too much directly about her - plenty of wiggle room for spin if the final tally is only a one point difference. I'll have final thoughts and interviews with student leaders tomorrow, then saunter back to my weekend role.