City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In, Obama's Are Not

Originally from 9:21, reposted to emphasize the update - I won't bump it again. And yes, this could leave me with major egg on my face tomorrow, but: I still predict an Obama win, albeit a narrow one.

Looking at specific city returns on MSNBC, the more progressive precincts have not yet reported. 70% of Manchester precincts are in - Clinton was leading the Manchester area in the final UNH poll 34-19-19. No precincts from Hanover, Lebanon, or Claremont have reported, but UNH gave Obama 42% of the vote in the Connecticut Valley. No precincts from Berlin have reported, but Obama was leading with 40% there.

The overall UNH poll had Obama up, 39-30, and so far we're seeing its regional predictions come true. Pay attention to which precincts have reported. Clinton's strongholds are in, Obama's and Edwards' are not. Let that speak for itself.

Update 9:43pm: I want to stress, the returns so far are consistent with the UNH/CNN/WMUR poll, which does have Obama winning. Yes, the cities I listed - which still aren't in - are small, but they are representative of the state's rural areas. I.E., Berlin may only be a few thousand votes, but it is representative of the North Country. Add those regions together, and they can check at least a victory in Manchester. All I've got right now is MSNBC, but I'm told NPR has said something similar. County chairmen have told me the Dems up north are more liberal, down south (Manchester) more moderate. I continue to think Obama will win, just by a narrower margin than expected.

Update 10:31: NBC is calling it for Clinton, which is weird since Olbermann has been spending the last ten minutes talking about Hanover, which still isn't in, being a mystery. I think the call is premature.

Update 11:44: My prediction was wrong, but my thinking was clear. Obama did at least narrow the gap: Durham and Hanover pulled it to 39-37, two points instead of three. This must be why he didn't speak too much directly about her - plenty of wiggle room for spin if the final tally is only a one point difference. I'll have final thoughts and interviews with student leaders tomorrow, then saunter back to my weekend role.

Tags: New Hampshire, New Hampshire primary (all tags)

Comments

34 Comments

Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

Apologies to any comments that were deleted, I'm not sure how to bump a post or even if I can, so I just deleted the previous entry and reposted. Won't happen again. Jerome, if I need to be taken out behind the woodshed, I understand.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 04:51PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

Oops, comments from pre-bump deleted.

Wow, this is going to be close. You are right that a lot of the college and affluent towns have not reported yet, but not all of Nashua and Manchester (Clinton territory) have reported yet either.

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 04:52PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

A fair point.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 04:54PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

Thanks. BTW, I think your analysis is very good -- I do think that Obama will pull this out very narrowly. I'm also a former Biden supporter that is leaning towards Obama ;-)

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 04:57PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

My question: do you think that even if Clinton loses (by say 1-3%), she "wins" big in the expectation game here? Or does the fact that Obama won the first two states mean that Obama still has the big mo'?

Of course, if Clinton actually wins, then it's a whole new race. I'm leaning towards Texan's side here for now -- Obama pulls it out barely.

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 04:55PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

The question is, what expectations will they focus on? Those of the past five days, or those of last week? That's a prediction I'm not prepared to make, it could go either way.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 04:57PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

Of course it does, win lose or draw this is a victory, sadly, for Hillary given the last few days of nonsense on the subject.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-08 05:09PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

Probably true, but Obama has built up a fairly large lead in SC in the past few days. Will this evaporate just because of NH's close results? I just don't know.

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 05:12PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

At this point nobody does.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-08 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In

I think Clinton wins the expectations game.  Tonight is a huge victory for the Clinton ground game regardless of whether she "wins" the state or not.  Almost everyone (myself included) was waiting to see the Clinton implosion tonight.  That's clearly not going to happen.

by NJIndependent 2008-01-08 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

I think if Clinton is within 5% it is a comeback and will give her enough to make it through Florida (and Michigan).  If she wins, SC might be on the table again.

by rcipw 2008-01-08 04:56PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

I'm an Edwards guy, but I have to say Hillary is my second choice. This is shocking, I really thought Obama would win, and win big. This is very surprising. I never thought I'd say "Go Hilary", but I have tonight. Regardless, this will be an interesting primary, hopefully to the Democratic Party's benefit. Even a 1-2% Obama win will be spun as a loss by the MSM.

Btw, the beepers on MSNBC are driving me insane! It is NOT 1996. Hello, use cell phones. (Comcast shut off my CNN access randomly...though I love Olbermann!).

by Airb330 2008-01-08 04:57PM | 0 recs
hubby just said the same thing

about the beepers.  put them away, turn them on virbate, just get them off my television.

by annatopia 2008-01-08 05:17PM | 0 recs
Clinton's Strongholds Are In, Obama's Are Not

I hope you're right, TT - but I have a horrible sinking feeling.  If Clinton wins tonight, inevitability is back on the table and the race is pretty much over.  I really thought this movement was sustainable, but I guess I was wrong.

Best case scenario, Obama ekes out a narrow win and momentum is blunted.  I'd see Hillary as a 60/40 favorite then.  Never thought I'd be hoping and praying for Obama just to have a puncher's chance after tonight.

by NC State Dem 2008-01-08 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton's Strongholds Are In, Obama's Are Not

Absolutely. That's my biggest fear. Hope SC and Nevada assess carefully.

by MNPundit 2008-01-08 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton's Strongholds Are In, Obama's Are Not

I disagree that if Clinton wins that the race is over. I still think Obama wins SC, and FL and NV will be close. Either way, it's a very close race -- it might be fair to say that there's NO frontrunner between Clinton and Obama after tonight.

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton's Strongholds Are In, Obama's Are Not

It is the narrow eke that I still anticipate - we're another 20 minutes past my update, and the North Country STILL isn't in. The Connecticut Valley STILL isn't in. Durham STILL isn't in.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 05:08PM | 0 recs
how many votes are we talking here?

being possibly up for grabs?  i know zip about the population distribution in new hampshire.

are we talking hundreds? thousands? ten of thousands? cause i'm not seeing how he could eerk out a win unless we're talking a 5K swing his way, and soon.

by annatopia 2008-01-08 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: how many votes are we talking here?

Tens of thousands - 8k alone in Hanover, deep Obama country. Lebanon and Claremont aren't in, that's thousands more and representative of the CT Valley. In fact, as I type Olbermann is talking about Hanover being a mystery. Berlin is a couple thousand, reflective of thousand more in the North Country.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

Jerome, Todd, Jonathan, did one of you bump this? I haven't touched anything but it moved up.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 05:07PM | 0 recs
Reposting here from another thread

More appropriate here -- looking for a silver lining:

By a desperate for an upside, crow-eating, Obama supporter:

1. Adversity is better faced the second week of January than first encountered in OCtober.

2. Assuming the campaign can use it properly, let's hope they can force the youth vote into a sort of Boxer-in-Animal-Farm "I will work harder".   A big win could have built complacency among political neophytes.

3. Far from challenging her, Edwards finished a pretty distant 3rd.   I don't think ALL Edwards support flows to Obama -- but based alliances, message, and such -- I think it's fair to say Obama gets the lion's share.   Much as I hate to say it, and as much as I like Edwards -- I think Obama needs to eliminate Edwards... but walk carefully and do it in a way that doesn't piss off the Edwards supporters.

4. The Clinton team did -- let's be honest folks, did run through a lot of narratives trying to define Obama... we saw 1)campaign chair hypocrisy, 2)experience/lack of, 3)take another look at his record, 4)action not rhetoric.   What quivers are left?   Perhaps Obama didn't swat 'em all away (again - not saying Obama lost the race... Hillary WON the race).  

by zonk 2008-01-08 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Reposting here from another thread

I couldn't agree more with point 3.

by crackityjones 2008-01-08 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Reposting here from another thread

But how does that nut get cracked?

Hell... if anything -- I've heard lots of now former Edwards supporters that moved to Clinton because of the initial response to the tears episode.

Not to mention - sure, I've seen it - lots of Obama supporters have been dicks.  I think we saw a new "Edwards for VP", "Edwards for AG", etc diary on Kos every hour on the hour over the weekend.

I really, really hate to say it... and I really, really don't want to push it -- but it's awfully ironic that a campaign banking on hope and positive vibes actually has to hope that a dislike for a 3rd candidate bears fruit soon.

Don't get me wrong... I actually think Edwards has plenty to say - and I'm not calling for him to drop out, but as an Obama supporter, I'd really love to have him leave the race.   Endorsing would be icing on the cake - but like I said.... the irony for a campaign of hope and post-partisan politics -- we really need the anti-Hillary support to coalesce.

by zonk 2008-01-08 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Reposting here from another thread

If you want to take my guy out I think you will have to smoke him in Nevada.

To tell you the truth, I'm hoping for a future in which every candidate gets to be inevitable for 15 minutes.

by Steve M 2008-01-08 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Reposting here from another thread

I don't know the answer to that myself..

I'm pretty demoralized and I'm not even sure what I'm going to do...

by crackityjones 2008-01-08 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

TT, did you move to Obama? I thought you were a Biden man? Just curious as a Delaware native (thought registered now in Philly).

by Airb330 2008-01-08 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

Yes, I did when he and my second choice Dodd both dropped out. In fact, if you see footage of the Dartmouth event on tv at all, I'm the guy with the beard and tan jacket behind him on stage. But that said, his inexperience still bothers me, and the city-return point I'm making tonight is one of pure punditry, not bias, as it's narrow support.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 05:10PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

Yeah, it's the inexperience for me as well. Plus I hate the way it's "he soooooo inspirational". SOrry, not for this 22 y/o. Not any moreso than any Democrat.

CAN I SAY.....F*** COMCAST. I live in CC Philly and I have lost ALL news networks. WTF? No CNN (lost it Sunday), no MSNBC now either, I haven't tried Fox lol. This is ridiculous. Cable in the city is worse than Dish Network pointed straight into a tree. Sigh...

by Airb330 2008-01-08 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

MSNBC is streaming online.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

Thanks. Yeah...Comcast can't even put me through to a CSR. It just says due to a large number of calls, try again later". Then hangs up. I swear, they are worse than Verizon. That says A LOT.

by Airb330 2008-01-08 05:19PM | 0 recs
Wow

The results in Beford are just in, and Clinton won there. This is an affluent town near Manchester (where I lived near for 5 years) that <u>should</u> be Obama country. Clinton might pull this out after all. I was fully expecting a solid Obama win in a town like Bedford.

by Hoyapaul 2008-01-08 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clint

Its dissapointing to see Capalbo dropping back!!

by crackityjones 2008-01-08 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

Great work, thanks for the on the ground reporting!

by Todd Beeton 2008-01-08 07:55PM | 0 recs
Re: City Breakdown: Clinton's Strongholds Are In,

Thanks, Todd, I appreciate that. And your stuff on the 100 Club captured it perfectly so I didn't even try. :)

by Nathan Empsall 2008-01-08 08:32PM | 0 recs

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