Obama Hurting McCain?

by Todd Beeton, Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:38:22 AM EST

One of the more interesting facets of the race for New Hampshire is the impact of Independents, who are able to vote in either the Republican or the Democratic primary on Tuesday. A favorite of Independent voters, John McCain rode their support to a surprisingly strong victory in 2000, as an Al Gore win was a foregone conclusion by the time New Hampshire voted. John McCain has no such luck in 2008. Not only is the Democratic primary still very competitive but Independents' favorite Democrat, Barack Obama, is surging after his win in Iowa.

Look at the internals of the Republican& Democratic ARG polls, you can see that they hold similar appeal among Independent voters, Obama with 49% of Undeclared voters in the Democratic primary and McCain with 44% Undeclared support in the Republican primary. It was widely expected that if Obama did not come out of Iowa strongly, McCain would benefit greatly, but as it is, Obama's surge is showing signs of eating into McCain's lead.

Take the Suffolk University/7 News tracking poll. Looking at the results ranging from the 2-day polling periods of 12/31-1/1 to 1/4-5, you can see that while Obama has risen 13 points, McCain has dropped 5 for a net loss of 12% to Romney (sorry for the quickie formatting I'm about to board a plane...)

Clinton 35 (36, 37, 39, 37)
Obama 33 (29, 25, 23, 20)

McCain 27 (26, 25, 29, 32)
Romney 30 (30, 29, 25, 23)

You can see a similar correlation in the Zogby tracking poll although it's less pronounced, as Zogby polls over 4-day periods. On the Democratic side, between the poll taken 12/31-1/3 and the most recent one taken 1/2-1/5, you can see Obama gaining a net 5% over Clinton and McCain losing net 5% to Romney.

Clinton 31 (32, 32)
Obama 30 (28, 26)

McCain 31 (32, 34)
Romney 32 (30, 30)

The Republican bloggers last night were convinced McCain is on his way to victory but if Obama continues to rise, that win could be seriously endangered, which would be an excellent fringe benefit of Obama's Iowa win. Last night's debate may very well have halted the exodus of Independents to Barack Obama, whether because Clinton succeeded in questioning Obama's ability to bring change or whether McCain succeeded in further raising doubts about Romney's consistency, but by the time that shift is reflected in the tracking polls, New Hampshire will have already voted.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, New Hampshire primary (all tags)

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27 Comments

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please, make it so

I have been wary of Obama lately, but if he wounds McCain and allows Romney to win NH, all Democrats owe him a debt of gratitude.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-06 11:42AM | 0 recs
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Re: please, make it so

Not only that, but in the event that McCain is the nominee Obama would present a unique challenge to him, among Democratic candidates, for independents nationwide.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-06 11:51AM | 0 recs
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I think the opposite is true

McCain, with the help of Lieberman, will steal the post-partisan mantle from Obama. So you'll have two candidates claiming to represent the reasonable compromise, but McCain is a lot more experienced and the media love him even more than they love Obama.

We will get killed in that scenario.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-06 12:31PM | 0 recs
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Re: I think the opposite is true

I don't see it that way.  McCain and Lieberman's version of 'post-partisanship' makes my skin crawl.  Hopefully McCain will not survive to the nomination but I've learned the hard way not to count him out.  If what you suggest is true is NH a fair test?

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-06 12:35PM | 0 recs
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Re: I think the opposite is true

Except you'd be wrong. :-)

Besides that, Obama just has to paint McCain as the status quo with old ideas that led us into this mess and then plaster ads showing McCain and Bush all lovey dovey from 2004.  Check and Mate.

by yitbos96bb 2008-01-06 12:45PM | 0 recs
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Re: I think the opposite is true

Replace Mitt with Hillary and you know what Hillary will face... except her ads will be much nastier.

by yitbos96bb 2008-01-06 12:45PM | 0 recs
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actually Bradley kept it close in NH

It hurt him that so many independents voted for McCain instead of him. He didn't lose to Gore by much in NH. It was not a foregone conclusion before that primary.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-06 11:44AM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Is Obama hurting McCain?

We can only hope so.

by shergald 2008-01-06 11:47AM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Romney winning New Hampshire would be a blessing for all Democrats, regardless of who you support.

by Namtrix 2008-01-06 11:54AM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

I must admit, I'll never understand "independent" voters. Why are they waffling between two candidate who, on the most important issue of the day, couldn't be further apart? Obama was against the war from the start, and McCain is Bush's biggest cheerleader. Obama will withdraw, while McCain wants to stay for 100 years.

Hard to believe these two vastly different candidates are vying for the same slice of the electoral pie.

by Kal 2008-01-06 12:02PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Curios, isn't it?  Maybe in the presidential electorate there is a slice of electoral pie which votes on character far more than policy?

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-06 12:14PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?
I like critters, I hates varmints. Trolls are just boring.
by inexile 2008-01-06 01:06PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?
I think you're confused. The question was "do voters sometimes vote on character and not policy?", not "does the electorate sometimes vote for characters instead of on policy?"
Besides, your troll comments may have smeared the GOP without trying (character trumps policy? you're suggesting that the Republicans are lacking on policy matters).
by spirowasright 2008-01-06 02:31PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Yeah, independents aren't a monolithic voting bloc, as we're sometimes led to believe by pundits and strategists. There's a third of independents who almost always vote Dem, a third who vote Republican, and a third who switch between the two.

As always, the election will be decided by the tiny fraction of uncommitted, uninformed voters who care more about character than any real stances on the issues. The kind of people who could vote for either McCain or Obama, even though the two of them really couldn't be more different.

by Kal 2008-01-06 12:34PM | 0 recs
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Not sure the numbers support it

Todd, while I'm sympathetic to your conclusion (I've said elsewhere that there'd be a 3-way tug of war for NH independents between McCain, Obama, and Ron Paul), the trends can so far be explained purely by intraparty tradeoffs.

In the Suffolk tracker, McCain + Romney = 55, 54, 54, 56, 57.  Romney could just as easily be stealing voters back from McCain.  Similarly, in the Zogby tracker their combined totals are 64, 62, 63.

In fact, McCain + Romney + Clinton's holding steady.  But since Obama's going up like a rocket, somebody in the (Obama, McCain, Romney, Clinton) group is gaining support either from undecideds or from candidates outside that foursome.

Dem undecideds, including former Dodd and Biden supporters, have dropped by 8 points in the Suffolk tracker since it began.  Meanwhile, Obama's gone up 11, while Clinton, Edwards, and Richardson have lost 2, 0, and 1%, respectively.

I think there's at least as good an argument that Obama's increased support is from raking up the Dem undecideds.

by RT 2008-01-06 12:08PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

I'm trying to figure out who does fear-mongering better...

The GOP, who tells me that I must, MUST vote for them or face the wrath of Al Qaeda that no Democrat could ever protect me from...

...or the HRC camp, who tells me I must MUST vote HRC or our poor candidate will face the wrath of the GOP that no other Democrat can withstand.

Maybe if y'all could come up with a more catchy name for it?  I mean Georgie, Rudy, and company have a nice succinct "9/11" -- but GOP slime machine or long ad descriptions just don't cut it.   Perhaps VRWC could be resurrected?

by zonk 2008-01-06 12:46PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Have you actually HEARD her events?  That is the OPPOSITE of what she is saying.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-01-06 12:49PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Then someone better tell Senator Clinton there's a rather nasty impersonator of her running around bragging about how she's the only that's been properly "vetted"...

by zonk 2008-01-06 12:53PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Thing is, though -

We've seen more than just a comment at a debate.  We've seen an awful lot of suspicious HRC surrogates more than happy to test out what would be the GOP's most repugnant lines of attacks.   We've seen 'overzealous staffers' that push shall we say... unfortunate misrepresentations.

Sure, sure -- HRC is always there to issue the apology, can or reprimand the staffer, ask the backer to back off.... just like good ol' Mike Huckabee was nice enough to denounce and promise not to air this nasty ad (which he then proceeds to show you.... and then proceeds to air anyway).

Look - it doesn't bother me - despite his woeful inexperience and political naivite, Barack is a big boy and quite capable of covering his own ass.  

I'd just ask that HRC supporters not treat me like an idiot incapable of deciphering what's being fed my way... I was smart enough not to buy what the GOP's been peddling, I'm smart enough to see it coming from a fellow Democrat.

by zonk 2008-01-06 01:05PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Last nights debate did NOTHING to take the indies away from Obama.  In fact, I'd say it helped him as did todays coverage saying Romney got destroyed in debate and Hillary came off poorly.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-01-06 12:48PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

Talk about killing two birds with one stone: Obama could simultaneously sew up the nomination while at the same time eliminating his strongest potential Republican opponent!

Wow! Go Obama!

by dmc2 2008-01-06 01:33PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

I'm not yet sold on Obama, but you can previsualize something pretty clearly about an Obama-McCain race.

Obama, regardless of what you think of him, exudes youthful vigor and optimism.

McCain is physically decrepit and looks like he should be hunting for a retirement home in Sun City West.  He also seems to be showing signs of presenility in his crankiness.

The contrast will weigh heavily in the electorate's subconscious.

by Bob H 2008-01-06 01:42PM | 0 recs
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Yeah...

there are some nervous nellies that are worried about a contest between the historic 47 year old Obama and pro war 72 year old McCain.  It would be 1996, Clinton/Dole again.  Plus, the religious wing of the Republican party would have little reason to support the secular McCain.

By the way, you are correct.  The median age of people in Sun City West, Arizona is 73.  

by mboehm 2008-01-06 02:04PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

I hate to speculate on McCain's health but judging by the way he looked at last night's debate, I have to wonder if he could even withstand the grueling nature of a nine month general election campaign.

by jkfp2004 2008-01-06 02:53PM | 0 recs
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that would be our only card

to play in that matchup. The only one. But maybe you are right. One of my neighbors was just saying that when we were talking after our precinct caucus. McCain looks really old, and it would be very apparent if he were running against Obama.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-06 08:21PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

I like the idea of change, but what does it actually mean for Obama?  What "change" is he wanting to bring about that other candidates do not?

by mecarr 2008-01-06 01:56PM | 0 recs
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Re: Obama Hurting McCain?

From what I've heard about how independents are breaking nationally (Democrats in everything but name), chances are that Obama would hurt McCain without really trying.

by spirowasright 2008-01-06 02:28PM | 0 recs

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