Out of Iowa

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 06:52:32 AM EST

I wound up getting out of Iowa ahead of the crowd. There are something like 1500 cars being returned to the Des Moines airport today, but Omaha was smooth sailing, and I caught some sleep on the way back home.

That was a historic election in Iowa. Though I was rooting for Edwards to win in Iowa to make it really interesting, I never got away from the expectation that Obama would win, and the high turnout wound up being reflective of Obama as the winner.

But really, I cannot see how you could call any of the Democratic campaigns losers this year. Richardson, Dodd, Biden, they all ran very strong campaigns in Iowa that were never able to gain traction because of the even stronger campaigns of Obama, Edwards, Clinton. For a turnout of nearly 240,000, each of them garnered support in numbers that would have won the '04 caucus with percentages upwards of 60 and above. That's just amazing.

By far, without any comparison, the campaigns of Obama, Edwards and Clinton brought home the best results ever in the Iowa caucuses. It was a night for Obama to say he won, but I don't think either Clinton or Edwards lost.

It's on to New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida before the national primary day that will decide the nominee.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

46 Comments

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Re: Out of Iowa

Jerome, glad you're back! Next, NH.

by lonnette33 2008-01-04 06:54AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Can I call Dennis Kucinich a loser?

by Anthony de Jesus 2008-01-04 06:57AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

What do you think about the fact that the only ideological group Edwards won was Conservative Democrats?

by Piuma 2008-01-04 07:04AM | 0 recs
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I think a lot of liberals

see what they want to see in Obama. I am not convinced that he would govern as they expect him to, though.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-04 07:12AM | 0 recs
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Re: I think a lot of liberals

Are you gonna be able to put up a diary of what happened in your precinct? I'd be interested to read it.

by Obama08 2008-01-04 07:53AM | 0 recs
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Re: I think a lot of liberals

So all of us are deluded and only your side is seeing the truth?  

by Piuma 2008-01-04 07:57AM | 0 recs
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Re: I think a lot of liberals

from balz at wash post on the trail:

Look first at Iowa and where Obama did best. According to the National Election Poll entranced poll, Obama enjoyed a margin of better than 2-1 over Clinton among independents. He won overwhelmingly among young voters between the ages of 17 and 29 and among voters between the ages of 30 and 44. He was the clear choice of liberals. He beat Clinton decisively among voters with incomes above $75,000. And those with college degrees.

Maybe we will redefine liberalism...we are creating a new base in the dem party...young, educated, liberal, middle/upper middle class.

by aiko 2008-01-04 08:38AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

I think that conservative Democrats tend to be economic populists.  Edwards might win more votes if he expanded his populist appeal to areas other than an anti-corporate message.

by Anthony de Jesus 2008-01-04 07:36AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

I think it is an incredible signifier for Edwards' chances in a general election.  He ran the most progressive campaign and yet he won the conservative vote by an overwhelming margin.  That's a tough trick to pull off.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 08:36AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Others might call that spin.  What the figures show is the liberal segment did not buy his message.  This old school "populism" Edwards has been espousing went over best with conservative democrats who make over $100,000 a year.  That's the entrance polls say.

by Piuma 2008-01-04 08:48AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Where's the spin?  Obviously the liberal segment liked Obama the best.  The general election is not decided solely among liberals, unfortunately.

You seem interested solely in establishing Obama's credentials as the true progressive candidate, while I'm more interested in what this election tells us about the candidates' chances in November.  At the end of the day, the goal is to win the Presidency, not to prove Markos and Jerome wrong.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 09:05AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Elections are won by energizing the voters and turning them out to vote.  Who do you think is the most responsible for last nights record shattering turn-out?  

by Piuma 2008-01-04 09:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

All three candidates energized a large number of new voters.  That said, if you think winning the general election is solely about energizing the liberal base, I don't think I'll be coming to you for any strategic advice.  Would that it were so.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 09:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Excuse me but he energized the very liberal, liberal, and moderate Dem base in conjunction with bringing over Independents onto the Dem side.  And if you won't admit that it was Obama who had the most impact in bringing a record shattering amount of new caucus voters to the vote last night then you are just not being straight. Sorry, but you're not.  

by Piuma 2008-01-04 09:28AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Of course Obama had the most impact, that's why he won.  You seem to think that's more important in a general election than Edwards' being much much much better at attracting crossover votes; I just don't agree.  Do you know how many Democrats have won smashing victories in the primary only to go on to lose the general?

There are any number of states that we lose simply because conservative Democrats defect to the other side, year after year.  Being able to run an unapologetically liberal campaign and yet hold the votes of these conservative Dems would be a map changer, and it would be better for the liberal ideology as a whole.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 09:34AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

You keep claiming Edwards ran an unapologetically liberal campaign and yet it didn't resonate with those voters.  There's no indication conservative Democrats will flee the party if Obama is nominated. None.  But there is evidence Obama can bring in Independents and appeal to a large base.  Look at these figures between Obama and Edwards last night.  The first figures are Obama's totals.

Democrats: 32-23%
Republicans: 44-32%
Independents: 41-23%

Urban: 40-18%
Suburban: 30-28%
Rural: 31-25%

And when you look at the ideology and party make ups of the vote, Conservative Dems, the group Edwards won, made up 6% of the democratic vote, which is 4.6% of the total vote.  Independents made up 20%.

by Piuma 2008-01-04 09:56AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

There's no indication conservative Democrats will flee the party if Obama is nominated. None.

Other than the fact that they've fled the party in virtually every other national election for the last 25 years, I guess not.

In West Virginia, Democrats have an 18-point registration advantage, but a full 30% of Democrats voted for Bush over Kerry.

In Arkansas, Democrats have a 10-point registration advantage, but 18% of Democrats voted for Bush over Kerry.

In North Carolina, the parties are roughly tied in registrations, but 16% of Democrats voted for Bush over Kerry.

The 2004 election was hardly an anomaly in this regard.  These people defect in national elections, time and time again.  I cannot imagine how you could think Obama will bring them home.  On the other hand, Edwards may very well do so with his 20-point advantage among voters who self-identify as conservative.

I am not a believer in modifying our party agenda to entice these voters, because they're not my favorite people.  But if we have a candidate who can run a clearly liberal campaign, and still keep these conservative voters within the Democratic fold, I can't imagine why anyone would deem that fact irrelevant.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 10:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

94% of Democrats preferred both Obama and Clinton to Edwards and you propose that is a reason to make him the nominee. And those people who didn't vote for Kerry in the last election, were also not voting for Edwards.   Edwards may have run a clearly liberal campaign and I know you believe what he says, but there are many others who just don't.

by Piuma 2008-01-04 10:53AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

94% of Democrats preferred both Obama and Clinton to Edwards...

On my planet, Edwards got 30% of the vote.  How did he only get 6% on your planet?

And those people who didn't vote for Kerry in the last election, were also not voting for Edwards.

This always seemed to be one of the silliest anti-Edwards talking points of all.  Somehow, voters in states where the Kerry/Edwards campaign didn't even compete were personally repudiating Edwards when they voted for Bush.  Come on.

Edwards may have run a clearly liberal campaign and I know you believe what he says, but there are many others who just don't.

It makes no difference whether I believe him.  This is politics and it's quite pointless to try and divine what's in a candidate's heart.  All I know is that you only get a mandate for liberal policies by running a liberal campaign.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 11:21AM | 0 recs
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the turnout was phenomenal

I've been checking in with friends all morning. In some places the turnout was double or triple the 2004 level.

I thought the DMR turnout model was outlandish with its prediction that 60 percent of caucus-goers would be first-timers, but I give them credit for being close to the mark.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-04 07:05AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

"It's on to New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida before the national primary day that will decide the nominee."

Not true. All of the campaigns have pledged not to campaign in Michigan and Florida and there are no delegates at stake.

by dmc2 2008-01-04 07:13AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Not exactly true. Kucinich and Gravel are campaigning here, for what that's worth.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic le?AID=/20080103/NEWS06/801030383/1009

by lpackard 2008-01-04 07:31AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Well, he went back on his pledge.

But Kucinich and Gravel are not exactly the most consequential candidates in the race at this point.

by dmc2 2008-01-04 07:38AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

I don't recall Kucinich signing the pledge.  He doesn't strike me as a pledge kind of guy.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 08:38AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Follow the link. He signed it.

by dmc2 2008-01-04 09:00AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

I don't see anywhere that it says he signed the pledge.  All it says is that he tried to pull out of the primary, which is true.

When I google "kucinich four state pledge" I don't find any reference to him signing the pledge at all.

by Steve M 2008-01-04 09:08AM | 0 recs
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Michigan and Florida?

Eugene Robinson also mentioned Florida. People need to realize these aren't real primaries. Candidates aren't campaigning there, the delegates have been striped by the DNC. I don't see why they are mentioned by someone who knows all this -- except to further a meme that Clinton didn't lose. (Last I heard she was the only major candidate on the Michigan ballot, although I heard differently on TV last night.) Regardless of who is on the ballot, I hope people don't give these primaries weight where Obama isn't likely to do as well (considering no campaigning and Clinton's huge name recognition). Let's focus on the real primaries...the ones that count, the ones where candidates are campaigning.

by spectator consumer 2008-01-04 07:15AM | 0 recs
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Re: Michigan and Florida?

FYI, Florida and Michigan do count.  The media will be there covering the Republican contests.  

by Andre Walker 2008-01-04 07:33AM | 0 recs
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Re: Michigan and Florida?

Not for the Democrats. And my concern is that Hillary is on the ballot on Michigan, and last I checked, she was only significant Dem candidate. Further, Florida and Michigan won't be campaigned in...meaning it will largely be name recognition, Clinton's real strength.

by spectator consumer 2008-01-04 08:28AM | 0 recs
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I wonder if Obama

will regret removing his name from the Michigan ballot as a pander to Iowans.  I don't think he need to to win there.

by BDB 2008-01-04 08:37AM | 0 recs
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Re: I wonder if Obama

I am expecting Hillary to lose to OTHER in both states.

by aiko 2008-01-04 08:40AM | 0 recs
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Re: Michigan and Florida?

The delegates will be reinstated, that's why they're important.  I don't care what the DNC says, Michigan and Florida are swing states the nominee will need in November 2008 and their delegates are going to count.  

by BDB 2008-01-04 08:31AM | 0 recs
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Re: Michigan and Florida?

No way will they be reinstated this late in the game. The spending is through the rough as it is, Michigan and Florida would make it impossible for anyone by Obama or Clinton. If Dean wasn't DNC Chair Hillary might have been able to pull something like you suggest. Thankfully, some of us have been slowly working at ousting the DLC/Clinton wing of the party out of power for several years now.

On the subject of DLC douchebaggery, I can't wait until '08 when Holy Joe gets an office in the mens rest room. Of course, he'll just bolt to the GOP I suppose, but eff that loser anyway.

by spectator consumer 2008-01-04 10:59AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

     The Des Moines Register has actual (final) votes cast on the Democratic side. Total was 250,005. Clinton's total was more than Huckabee, Romney, and Giuliani combined. Total on the Republican side was 116,114, so 68.3% of the total voters chose a Democrat.

by Ron Thompson 2008-01-04 07:19AM | 0 recs
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Has anybody seen

anyone from the Obama campaign this morning on any shows?  I've seen Edwards and Clinton folks.  Are the Obama people just letting the msm do their work?

by CardBoard 2008-01-04 07:25AM | 0 recs
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Re: Has anybody seen

Obama held a 4:30AM four-minute press conference on arrival in NH.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-04 01:25PM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

I am most proud of the way that all of the campaigns conducted themselves, with generally high class and respect. Even with some of the nitpicking that was present it was a very noble Democratic slate of candidates this year. Compare that to the GOP and we come off looking even better.

I was an Obama supporter last night but it was wholly refreshing to see the class and dignity that all campaigns had in my precinct. No gloating, no bemoaning, no hard feelings. The precinct captains all shook hands and congratulated each other on a night that was historic in so many ways. The sense of the room was one of optimism and hope...in all corners. Cheering across the room anytime any numbers were announced. It was an amazing night to be a Democrat in Iowa.

by Greg The Wisconsin Democrat 2008-01-04 07:30AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

This is the kind of diary one expects around here.

Obama did not win..well not really.. according to him Hillary and Edwards also won! We have three winners!

This stuff is unbelievable. You only read it here. ANd the diarist predicted this pretty much to boot. I seem to recall a diary about Obama not having a movement and how Hillary would eat him for breakfast in Iowa. Must have been a different Jerome.

Eat a little humble pie man.

by crackityjones 2008-01-04 07:30AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

As Jim Rome would say: Scoreboard.

by Piuma 2008-01-04 07:49AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Get over yourself. I expected/blogged that Obama would win with this turnout.  It wasn't a surprise. You just take a moment to appreciate others beside your savior.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-01-04 09:14AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Perhaps you should take a moment to appreciate the turnout.  And drop the savior bullshit.  Obama didn't win because his supporters watched him walk on water.  He won because he motivated people to walk the streets, knock on doors, pick up the phone, and get out to vote.  Something his movement campaign has been preparing them to do, training them to do, organizing them to do.  And that is bare-bone political grassroots skills and experience which will benefit the Democratic Party for years and years to come.  One would think and little appreciation of that is in order this morning.

by Piuma 2008-01-04 09:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

Good call on your choice of airports.

by jcullen 2008-01-04 07:37AM | 0 recs
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not...

Michigan or Florida. They are being "punished".

by kevin22262 2008-01-04 07:47AM | 0 recs
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Re: Out of Iowa

For what it's worth, HRC and Obama are nearly even on Intrade now. McCain edges Giuliani.

by animated 2008-01-04 08:08AM | 0 recs
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Obama won with class

He didn't have to fear monger. He didn't leak untrue personal attacks on HRC or Edwards. He didn't change his message every week to fit some consultant's "model" of the election. He didn't belittle his opponents or lecture to the citizens. Expect some of the typical Clinton trash to emerge in the coming few weeks (especially after she gets trounced in NH).

by highgrade 2008-01-04 08:14AM | 0 recs
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Turnout

An amazing turnout, unbelievable.  I thought either Clinton or Obama or Edwards would turn out their voters and instead all three did.  Props to the Obama people for turning out the most.

It's amazing to me that so many people in Iowa were energized by the candidates.  I don't think the turnout would've been the same if all three hadn't run such strong campaigns there.  They campaigns fed into the energy of the electorate and instead of getting sick of it, they turned out and caucused.  Yay, democracy!

I still hate the caucus system and the role Iowa plays - which is not to say I think a primary result would've been different, Obama won first choicers and would've won a primary - but the participation was awesome.  

by BDB 2008-01-04 08:34AM | 0 recs

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