Some Post Debate Thoughts

It's going to sound lame, but I kind of think that both candidates basically did what they needed to tonight, particularly in the sense that neither had a major stumble that could have adversely affected their momentum going into February 5. Both candidates came in relatively conservatively (not in the political sense but rather in the tactical sense) -- and the fact that the two were seated next to one another rather than standing at dueling podiums (podia?) didn't do much to discourage these postures.

The previous post-debate thread is starting to get full, so feel free to use this one to continue to discuss your thoughts. But don't forget to vote in the poll to let us know if you thought either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton -- or both or neither -- won tonight.

Update [2008-1-31 22:30:31 by Todd Beeton]:On CNN just now, they reported how a focus group judged the candidates tonight, which pretty much summed up my feelings and the consensus of a few people I've talked to. Going into the debate, the focus group was 50-50, after the debate tehy favor Clinton 60-40. But on the issue of Iraq, they feel Obama got the better of Clinton on that issue. I spoke to Marc Ambinder who basically feels it was a draw but that the Iraq part of the debate actually really helped Obama largely because it was toward the end of the debate.

I think what Clinton did for herself was halt some of Obama's perceived momentum, restore confidence in her candidacy, even as on paper she's still favored on February 5th, there's been a creeping sense that Obama is catching her at just the right time and coming up fast. Ambinder noted that a Clinton advisor told him that her goal coming into tonight was to sort of repent, be humble and push the reset button back to before SC and she did that. I think that's a slight understatement.

My mom's observation: "How nice that they're being so pleasant. Really." The reason this is notable: she's a Republican who's never voted for a Democrat.

Update [2008-1-31 22:47:16 by Todd Beeton]:I think the big winner of the night was the prospect of a Clinton/Obama ticket.

Tags: Debate, Open Thread (all tags)

Comments

57 Comments

Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

CNN real-time:

All undecided going in.

60/40 for Clinton after the debate.

Obama won on Iraq.

by RJEvans 2008-01-31 05:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Real World:

HUGE Obama media slat going in.

Hillary hit a homerun.

Advantage: Clinton.

by KnowVox 2008-01-31 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

I thought Obama won decisively on Immigration.  Hillary agreeing with the scapegoating of the questioner was surprising.  

by Piuma 2008-01-31 05:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Being from NY and facing constant immigration issues, I thought Hillary won decisively on immigration.

by KnowVox 2008-01-31 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Disagree.  Clinton brought it down to people and jobs, stayed a little more concrete.

Not talking the policy differences, just saying I think her presentation was better.

by prodigal 2008-01-31 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Mark Penn is on MSNBC. He looks awful on TV

by Jr1886 2008-01-31 05:27PM | 0 recs
the round mound of spin
That triple chin--Mark Penn needs both NutriSystem
and Jill Michaels.  Yikes!
by mikelow1885 2008-01-31 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Fortunately, few people are swayed by how someone percieves how a campaign manager looks on TV.

by KnowVox 2008-01-31 05:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

I concur with the CNN poll, and as such, if Clinton was ahead going in, she remains ahead going out.  She will win decisively on Super Tuesday.

by lambros 2008-01-31 05:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Getting close on the Mydd poll. I have never seen HRC win any blog's poll.

by ND1979 2008-01-31 05:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

MYDD is Hillary central.

by Drummond 2008-01-31 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Daily Kos is Obama central!

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-01-31 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Agreed.

by Drummond 2008-01-31 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

As an Edwards supporter, I favor Clinton on health care and Obama on other issues. I've been critical of Obama in the past specifically for his use of Republican talking points at times.

Tonight I actually saw Clinton using Republican points like when she said (paraphrasing) "We need to have a strong Democrat to go against Republicans on national security." I think she kind of embraced that meme, which just isn't true and we shouldn't ackowledge it.

by Progressive America 2008-01-31 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Well, I can tell you that if the Democrat is perceived as weak on national security, we'll get slaughtered in November.  "strong on national security" is not the same as being a "Bush-Cheney jingoistic warmonger," but is defined in terms of projecting strength and competence in that arena.   I give more weight to Clinton's experience vice the Senate Armed Services committee than in I do to Obama's community organizing in Daly-machine Chicago.

The contrast between Clinton and the Republicans on national security issues is starkly clear.

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-31 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Actually Clinton was directly CONFRONTING the right wing meme. She said that we need a strong democrat on national security to show the country that Democrats can fight national security concerns better than republicans. She's advocating that we steal "their issue"

by world dictator 2008-01-31 10:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Ugh Mark Penn arguing why Edwards should go to them. How funny is that?

by Progressive America 2008-01-31 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

He and Axelrod would do their candidates justice by finding some "softer" faces to spin.

by ND1979 2008-01-31 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Hillary Clinton was at her best tonight. Her command of policy, especially on health care and the economy, really shone through. She makes her strongest impressions when she's able to talk at length about her policies.

There's no way Clinton is the VP nominee. You only want to be VP as a stepping stone to the presidency, or if the presidential nominee is a clueless fool who's allowed you to pick the VP, and who will also allow you to essentially be the president. Clinton would be much more effective as a senator.

by OrangeFur 2008-01-31 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Well, obviously. :)

Glad that you're on board.

by OrangeFur 2008-01-31 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Generally, I think Clinton had the stronger performance, as would be expected.  Obama is less effective in debate than  in public address, hesitant and choppy.  

Each had some good lines, but since those the media chooses to highlight get attention I don't think that my assessment (Clinton had the best lines) will necessarily become the Revealed Truth.  

I haven't seen numbers, but my impression is that Clinton spoke considerably more than Obama time-wise.

Obama didn't know what to do with the "media & morality" question and his response was fairly lame.

Clinton laughed, smiled, was cordial, pleasant and not the Iron Bitch Goddess of the Western World.  She didn't let Wolf screw with her.  Strong and competent.

Nod to Clinton.

by prodigal 2008-01-31 05:45PM | 0 recs
HIllary

probably staunched the bleeding.

I agree - no clear winner.  I think both candidates basically did what they wanted to do.  HRC is a better debater than Obama, but this was probably Obama's best debate from top to bottom.

The question is... has Hillary bled too much?  

She's put on the brakes, but we still have a de factor incumbent and undecided don't generally break for the incumbent.

by zonk 2008-01-31 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: HIllary

> undecided don't generally break for the incumbent.

I can't count how many times I saw that repeated on the blogs in '04. Then finally someone who knew whereof he spoke (Andrew Kohut? maybe?) explained that yes, undecideds break for the challenger in the weeks approaching an election, but in the last few days, those who simply can't decide will go with the known quantity, giving a last minute bump to the incumbent.

I don't know how consistent that pattern is, or how applicable it is in this case. But it sure fits the pattern we saw in the GE in '04, and maybe even '00.

by itsthemedia 2008-01-31 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: HIllary

Whoever said undecides don't break for the incumbent needs to look at NJ polling

by world dictator 2008-01-31 10:53PM | 0 recs
But

This election has more than a few days to go...

It won't be over on Super Tuesday.  Obama's already on the air in post-2/5 states.

I think Obama will "lose" on SuperTuesday, but I bet it's by less than 100 delegates.  Add that to his slim current lead in delegates, and we come out of Super Tuesday essentially tied.

I can't see Obama coming back, getting within striking distance, tying up HRC, then not being able to ultimately win it.

by zonk 2008-02-01 03:21AM | 0 recs
Re: But

Yes, I was referring to 2/5 only in that connection. He certainly has time to turn around her leads in the later states, assuming she does not blow him out on 2/5.

by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

i went to my first debate watch party, and it was quite cordial. there were some Obama supporters there, but in general, everyone was happy.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-01-31 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

This was Clinton's debate, all the way. A dazzling performance, very careful and methodical in her responses. Supremely detailed and controlled. She has been the absolute winner--not even close. The best line EVER--"It took a Clinton to clean up after the FIRST Bush, and it just might take another Clinton to clean up after the SECOND Bush." THE DEMOCRATIC LINE OF THE YEAR AND THE CAMPAIGN. Say hello, America, to the first woman president. She's going to clean up next Tuesday!

by lambros 2008-01-31 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Do you have anything else to add?  I think this is your third copy and paste job (four if you include the comment at dailykos).

"Best line ever"?  An empty and meaningless turn of phrase, regardless of whether or not one supports Hillary.  Both candidates are better than Bush, we already knew that.

by rfahey22 2008-01-31 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Well, you won't like the Luntz focus group response.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-31 08:33PM | 0 recs
Or trust it either

Frank Luntz has worked for Ross Perot and Republicans.  Even they don't trust him.  His focus groups say what he wants them to say.

by Trickster 2008-01-31 09:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Yeah, about a Clinton/Obama ticket, I speak to supporters of both candidate and their faces light up when such a ticket is mentioned. How that plays out remains to be seen.

by RJEvans 2008-01-31 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Obama?  Where would they put his office?

by Shaun Appleby 2008-01-31 08:34PM | 0 recs
Read lips...

Can anyone read lips? I wonder what the exchange was between Clinton and Obama at the end.

by RJEvans 2008-01-31 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

I agree with those who say that Obama would never pick Clinton as veep, nor do I know that that would make sense for her.

But, while Obama is not my favorite choice (Wesley Clark, Jim Webb, or maybe Ted Strickland), it might be a ruthlessly pragmatic choice and tonight's debate made be think it would be workable if it came to pass.   It's funny, but I was thinking along these lines when Wolf Blitzer popped the question.

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-31 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

How does a Clinton/Obama help in OH or FL or western state- don't we need to think of that rather than the feelings of the moment in a Democratic Primary?

by bruh21 2008-01-31 06:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Turnout.

One thing Clinton and Obama has been able to do is turnout voters who are new to the process. They will be able to rally the Party is a way not seen in decades.

by RJEvans 2008-01-31 06:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Would Obama's supporters feel betrayed by such a move? Afterall dont they see this as a holy war agains the evil Clinton?

by bruh21 2008-01-31 06:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Once Obama looses and then is welcome by Clinton that will go a long way to people forgiving and forgetting about the evil Clinton and they will focus on the evil Republicans.

by kristoph 2008-01-31 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Well, I don't doubt they will support the democratic choice. Althogh even I flirted with the idea of bloomberg a few months ago, now I am firmly of the ABM (anybody but mccain) or ABR romney)

by bruh21 2008-01-31 06:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

I believe that she would have to pick Obama so shore up his support. If I have to say it, his African-American support. She can't risk that they would stay home in the general.

Even though I support HRC, I don't know what she does for him given that he has already proven that he can attract women's votes.

Inigo, strategically is the only way to look at it

by ND1979 2008-01-31 06:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

They could set it up as such that Obama turns down the VP slot and ask his supporters to support Clinton to the fullest.

by RJEvans 2008-01-31 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

ND, believe me I look at things strategically.  Strategos is the role I would most prefer in a campaign, communications director running second.

I see the argument for Obama as veep.    I think some others might be a more comfortable fit and be politically potent as well.

Tonight was important to me in that, if a shotgun marriage becomes necessary, I can see it working.

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-31 06:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Btw, I think outside the superheated blogosphere, Clinton's support among the black community would be just fine, with or without Obama.   Some of the more heated supporters are far more divisive and divided than the overwhelming majority of voters.

However, Obama might boost the turnout.  And, yeah, I'd take that.

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-31 06:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Bruh: Kerry picking Edwards was the feeling of the moment. Clinton picking Obama (imagine the turnout in La. Va. Tn. Ga. Fl. among African Americans and women)would be pure strategy.

The Dem's would win a few 52-48 Bush states with that ticket, IMO.

by ND1979 2008-01-31 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Edwards was about a southern state and trying to go with the 20 state strategy as I recall the name. This is feeling of the moment because no one has explained how this helps in the states and geographies I mentioned. And your last little bit about the Bush states is, well, delusional. We have a chance in places like VA (although even my homestate remains extremely unlikely) and maybe CO or OH, but GA and WY ain't gonnay happen even if we dug up Reagan himself and stuck him on our ticket.

by bruh21 2008-01-31 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

More important than African Americans (who already turnout in impressive numbers in Southern states) are young people.

by souvarine 2008-01-31 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

My friend: Winning one of those states gains us the White House you realize? The Dem's don't need them all if you remember the 2000 and 2004 elections. We don't need Fl (although we will win it this year) and we will win Colorado and New Mexico and possibly Nevada. Explanation enough?

The turnout in the early states have been so far beyond 2004 and it is because of these two people. Combining them would strategic, not some feel-good measure.

Picking Ted Strickland, Wesley Clark or Bill Richardson would be delusional.

by ND1979 2008-01-31 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

well you are writing up a bunch of conclusions so I can only assume you don't understand how to provide an explaination for your postion. can you actually provide me some analysis. Ia m just curous, and ultimately its all just speculation, but really- you need to say more than its a great idea, how wrong i am, and then use my own prhase against me for not listening to you talk on about how we will win the bush states plural.

by bruh21 2008-01-31 06:37PM | 0 recs
Flashback to election 2000

The real time reaction to the first Bush Gore debate was pretty nearly unanimous. Gore mopped the floor with Bush. Bush supporters were musing out loud that they had just witnessed their guy losing the election.

By the next day, the media pack was in full cry, incense over Gore's rudeness, his loud sighs, rolling his eyes, blah, blah, blah. Bush, on the other hand, had exceeded expectations by not tripping over his own feet and cracking his skull on the podium. A clear win for Bush.

I have great respect for (most of) the posters here, be the supporting Obama / Clinton/ Edwards / whoever. But the question is not how MyDDers see the debate, it's how Chris Matthews, et al are planning to spin it, and whether he gets away with it.

by itsthemedia 2008-01-31 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

C'mon, let's get a clip of "The Chair Pulls" going.  It'll go cultural in a flash, like "The Snub."

= 1000 words.

by oh puhleeze 2008-01-31 07:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

I think Hillary was the winner. Obama predictably won the Iraq war point. However, Hillary did a damn good job speaking very eloquently about the other topics. All Obama did was match her at best when he needed to beat her on a few issues.

While I thought were about the same overall in terms of scoring points, I think I will give Hillary the edge for two reasons

  1. Obama is the underdog and so a tie would not help him.
  2. Hillary's body language seemed superior to Obama's even if you factor in the little awkward staring she did when Obama would respond to a question. Thankfully she toned down the staring later in the debate.

If you are a Democratic candidate, I think both candidates can kill either Repiblican candidate in a debate though I would be curious to see how Hillary would find a way to put McCain on the defensive on Iraq. Would she go less aggressive on McCain's stupidity on that issue because of her past?

by Pravin 2008-01-31 09:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Just mention the 100 years in Iraq. Run it on TV over and over again and McCain is done. Well... sort of.

by RJEvans 2008-01-31 10:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama as VP could really help Hillary on Iraq.

Democrats don't need "help" on Iraq. The republicans are running pro Iraq and dems are running withdraw. It's pretty black and white. No one who wants troops out of Iraq is going to vote McCain because Clinton isn't anti war enough. I mean McCain just said she wants to "surrender"

by world dictator 2008-01-31 10:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

Bruh: Perhaps we got off on the wrong foot, my fault.  I honestly don't know what we are even debating at this point. My only point is that Obama would be a wise VP choice because he would gain votes for the ticket, as opposed to Lieberman and Edwards.  I do think it is naive to think that without Obama, Clinton would lose some African-American support in the general. maybe they would vote for McCain but they surly won't turn out (record breaking in South Carolina) like they have in the primary.

by ND1979 2008-02-01 04:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Some Post Debate Thoughts

They both looked good in this head-to-head debate. Civility reigned.

Hillary was on her game. Obama did well to force her to try to defend her Iraq war authorization, but failed to confront her about her failure to read the NIE report.

Obama had a great point in noting that the renowned businessman, Romney, had not obtained much return on his campaign investment. Hillary had a nifty line that a Clinton had cleaned up after a Bush presidency and that a Clinton would now do the same.

Both won. Hillary showed her excellent skills in outlining policy positions. Obama did OK and certainly did benefit a lot just from the additional exposure this debate.gave him.

homer www.altara.blogspot.com

by Homer 2008-02-01 05:52AM | 0 recs
Cinton locked it up

I thought Clinton aced most of the debate & simply outflanked Obama on nearly every issue. Her command & expertise was definitely on display.

Obama sometimes likes to joke & quip his way out of serious issues & make light out of things he should not, to cloak discomfort at handling certain issues. It's understandable to want to laugh at Romney, but the idea of a talented rookie captaining the economy totally cold is a prospect I find unappealing.

The one issue where I agree Obama has an advantage is the IWR. However, that does not extend to what do we do NOW. I'm never going to be happy with Clinton's IWR vote, but I can be at peace with her answer & accept it.

I have two seriously war mangled veteran uncles (Vietnam era), one a triple amputee, so I do take this issue of Iraq seriously, and I take it personally. I also have a very clear picture of the atmosphere in the country at the time.  

But when people conclude it is advantage Obama on Iraq, it is only the IWR vote that is in play there, to me. She seems better equipped for this moment, at this time, as far as getting us out of the mud.

And I certainly like the fact that Wes Clark & Joe Wilson have endorsed her.

She is comfortable in her own skin on health care, and also seems to comprehend this comprehensively, multi-dimensionaly, realistically. Obama's idealism, while touching, comes across as extremely naive at times. There is a place where theory & practice have to meet- and I think Clinton has a much deeper, stronger grasp of how to do what is possible to do, if that makes sense.

I like Obama, I like the excitement, I hope he develops his talents & learns to listen. His professorial bearing is best suited to lecturing, not listening, and not discussion & at this time, we desperately need hands on, detail oriented people who have a deep appreciation for the complex inner workings of our very broken government, how all the wheels & cogs should fit together.

Clinton gives us this in spades. I have a high degree of confidence in her. She can set the stage for a more progressive wave to succeed in the following dem administrations. Right now we need to slow down the Shock Doctrine we've been living under, and accepting as normal. We need to move very, very, very, very carefully with our next moves.

by bluemoon 2008-02-01 06:44AM | 0 recs

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