Todd, the title here is misleading.  They expect to do "no worse than second." It doesn't necessarily mean they expect to BE in second.

Well, they've started setting expectations before anyone shows up. I can see the 5th as a firewall because there are lots of closed primaries and the internals in a lot of polls don't favor Obama.

I think this reinforces my feeling that either Clinton or Obama will win.  Obviously, Team Clinton wants to frame as an upset.  I don't think they'd say anything re Edwards in 3rd place unless they were very certain of that.  This could be an indication that no Clinton/Edwards deal is forthcoming - they'd rather stay as close to Obama as possible.

Edwards is completely done if he finishes third.

Mike Barnicle is so in the tank. He is hitting talking points on Hardball?  Everytime Chris goes to him he pushes the Clinton thinks she is owed this nonsense.

If Clinton thought she was owed she would have pulled a Rudy and skipped the early states.

She is competing and competing to win and spending millions in the early states ... unlike a Rudy who think he can cruise later.  She doesn't feel owed.

Matthews and Barnicle are peices of dung.

I think Edwards finishing third also is wishful thinking for Clinton.

For the inevitable candidate, she sure collapsed quickly.

I think it's a close race and all the spinning is just that: spinning.  Still, it is surprising to see Clinton's camp lowering expectations so soon.

Penn relies on polls too much.

Ah, yes, indeed--Andrea Mitchell and her MSNBC team of Clinton haters, now echoed by the anti-Clinton bloggers.  

And misrepresenting the correct quote--leave that to the MSM, so desperate for their darling Obama.

Indeed, it means just the opposite--that the Clinton team, brilliantly, is lowering expectations--to emerge triumphant, and thus reveal that ARG, which has consistently predicted a Clinton win by a comfortable margin, was not far off the money on the actual win.

She is in an excellent position now in New Hampshire--and beyond, precisely where her team wants her to be.

A brilliant tactical move by the Clinton team!

I completely disagree.  The best situation for Obama is Obama/Clinton/Edwards and the best situation for Edwards would be Edwards/Clinton/Obama.  Edwards and Obama are competing to be the anti-Clinton and if they come one and two then they will have to continue to fight each other.

Assuming Clinton has close losses in IA & NH:

(1) The latest national polls have her national lead back up in the 20-point range.

(2) Only 150K Iowans, at most, will caucus, and there is not a great history of Iowa changing things dramatically.  Obama is from a neighboring state and Clinton started late in Iowa, so a close loss scarcely shows that the party is against her.

(3) In NH, unless something changes dramatically, she wins easily among Democrats and it's only independents who bring Obama into the picture.

Of course, all this is subtext and the headlines would scream something else, but there is time for subtext to come into play, and this is especially true now that the heat is starting to focus on Golden Boy for a change.

You're right about that. If it's Clinton vs. Obama he will lose especially in the states with large hispanic populations. Survey usa did a poll yesterday on CA on the primary yesterday that had Obama garnering only 19% of the hispanic vote to Clinton's 62%.

Aaaaah hopefully we'll know by next week.

It's entirely plausible. Clinton wins AR, NY, NJ, and CT. Obama wins IL and UT. Who wins the deep south where African-Americans make up 40-55% of the vote? either one can make a cross-cutting coalition. Who wins CA? She'll have four weeks to make the case that the Obama health care plan would leave people out in the cold.

I just can't escape this feeling that these last 2 hours before the first results are going to be the last hopeful feelings we all share before we watch the Hillary Machine roll to victory.

maybe on your part it seems.

Clinton leads by 20 points plus in feb 5 states.

Though many dont seem to understand this, our primaries are about winning DELEGATES, not about winning 'good press" from the same media that trashed Gore and put Bush in the White House.

Feb 5 states dont allow independents to steal into and distort our process and Hillary crushes when polls include just Dems.

Stick with your CW, Ill go with the words of the big dawg about IA and the british oddsmakers that still have hillary over obama by 5 to 1 - while saying Obama will win IA.  

Everyone knows Obama can win SC, its a majority black primary, hell Jesse Jackson won SC, so who wouldnt expect him to. He will get no actual mo from that. None.

If Hillary loses NV, I will admit theres trouble, there will be a bloody battle and Obama, being the media's darling, could pull it out. But, if she wins there, shes our nominee.

Obama has to sweep, anything less and he's done.

Sorry fella.  But just wait, you'll see.

The HRC Campaign is acting increasingly strange and desperate. I don't recall in 2004 seeing the other candidates saying they expected to come in 2nd? Anyone recall Edwards, Kerry or Dean lowering expectations before the voting? I do not.

Its very bizzare. You'd think the Clinton camp would want to pump up its supporters not make them feel like they are already losers before they even head out to the poll. This "loser mentality" could have particular impact in a caucus environment where the HRC supporters walk in with their heads down even before they've gathered. Its not the kind of thing that attracts others....

hey, Todd, why ignore Nevada? I know the big media does it all the time but why do you act like there's nada between NH and SC? Essentially, Nevada is the big Clinton firewall. They've had similar numbers in Nevada as nationally. If Clinton loses IA and NH and wins NV she could rebound. If she loses NV in such a scenario I believe her campaign is basically over.

She also said the Clinton campaign believes, even if they lose in NH and South Carolina, that they see February 5th as their firewall. That seems like wishful thinking.

not at all. That is what happened in 1992. Bill was dead in the water until Super Tuesday.

Walter Mondale is telling folks that the Clinton campaign will finish 3rd behind Edwards (2nd) and Obama (1st).

The Clinton campaign loses nothing with this B.S. claim. They're trying to lower expectations.

Tick...tick ...tick..
Yep I love the Edwards third scenario...

"We didn't see it coming.."
These folks see it coming

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/s torylink_1231_103.aspx

There are actually 6 contests in Jan.  I predict she does no worse than 2, probably wins 3-4.  

Even 2 would keep her viable for Feb 5.  Even if they are MI and FL (I think she owns NV).

Look where the delegates are.  

Obama doesn't have a prayer in TX, NY, NJ, OH, and PA.  Not a prayer.  PA, TX and OH may as well be Mississippi for Obama.  NY and NJ are home turf for Clinton.  These are just facts.

Clinton wins it.  The only questions is how much pain she has to endure to win it.

As a HRC supporter, I'm feeling really good tonight, especially with these latest lowering of expectations comments by the Clinton camp.

I remember election night 2004 when Pres. Bush and his camp lowered expectations and Howard Fineman and all of the rest of the MSNBC pundits declared that Kerry was the winner. Remember that? All the exit polls were saying that it was a close race but Kerry would win in the end. I'm sensing some deva ju here.

It's all about microtargeting, people!! Check out what Vilsack said to the Politico recently:

Former governor spills HRC's secret

Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who is backing Hillary Clinton, just told me Clinton's secret weapon in Iowa: the Asian and Pacific Islander community here.

--

Many of them are boat people," Vilsack said, referring to Vietnamese refugees who came to this country in the years after the fall of Saigon in 1975. "We, in Iowa, opened up our hearts and homes to them."

In those days, immigration wasn't quite as controversial as it is now.

Vilsack noted that the community used to vote Republican but that, starting in 1988, the Democrats "made a real effort to reach out to them."

--

Though the Asian and Pacific Islander community in Iowa probably numbers no more than 4,000 people, that easily could be the margin of victory here.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/010 8/7693.html

This all sounds so familiar. Remember when the Bush team won b/c of pockets of evangelicals spread out throughout certain states like Ohio supported them? If you recall, the polls didn't pick up on small subgroups of Amish etc. I think what Vilsack is talking about here is that the Clinton campaign specifically targeted this group of people. I'm going to guess that they are spread out in certain areas of Iowa that will help Clinton win the state.

Microtargeting, ain't it grand?

I'm almost certain that the top three finishers will be Edwards, Obama, and Clinton.

Though not necessarily in that order.

I'm tired of the media. CNN and Msnbc are both talking about how it will be Clinton or they will reject her and go to Obama. No mention of Edwards whatsoever. They are making their unfairness quite clear tonight.

oh dar - im in a rush - but u seem sooooo nice!  so..

1.  fl and mi had their delegates taken away cause they tried to move their primaries up early in the calender beyond a date that the dnc - as a voting committee - warned and had made rules saying any state that did this would be stripped of thier delegates.  This is all bs long term, because there is NO WAY that those states wont have delegates at the convention.  No way that will happen.  They will be sat.  Hillary will win both tho states huge and the ill be a big part of her big mo.

2.  The media will sure TRY!  The damn political media is doing to Hillary the exact same thing they did to gore in 2000.  remember Gore just BARELY beat Bradley in NH that year and just like that year - again it will be the non dem independents that will decide the victor in NH.  If th go with McCain - obama loses - if they go with Obama - he wins....but after that....??  All of the feb 5 states except for GA - DO NOT ALLOW indies in to mess with our choice.  Most dont know or understand this.  But again, the media are outright rooting for Obama - jus like they did for Bradley and it is a great advantage for him in NH.  btw, just like 2000, Im in NH right now.

3. yup. my original home state of delaware used to be that way too, but no longer.  Its the DUMBEST process.  I did them for Clinton back in the day, it was my first job for those lovely people. Its all about getting your volunteers out.  Its like a cheer off.  Who gives a fig?!  If Hill loses in IA - dont give a damn - it means nothing in the long term plan to get to 2500 delegates.

Remember. Obama has to win ALL of the first 4 to really stay alive.  All.

where are you in CA? Are you hooked in yet?  Its very possible CA will be the most important stare in the primaries period.