Clinton 55
Obama 35
Edwards 10

McCain 33
Romney 30
Giuliani 17
Huckabee 15
Paul 5

McCain looks older than Bob Dole and dirt. Romney by 7.

Though, I'm not sure that's what I want anymore. Mitt's been looking tougher every week.

I'll go with Clinton - 57% Obama - 35% Edwards: 6% other - 2%  (there's always 1-2% other!!)

Clinton 57
Obama 33
Edwards 9

Romney 35
McCain 30
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 11
Paul 6

Clinton 54%

Obama   31%

Edwards 15%

Romney 34 %

Mccain 32%

Guiliani 15%

Huckabee 13%

Ron Paul  6%

Republicans:

Romney 35
McCain  33
Huckabee 15
Giuliani 12
Paul  5

DEM

C: 47
O: 38
E: 15

GOP:

M: 33
R: 32
H: 22
P: 7
G: 6

Clinton 70%
Obama 20%
Edwards 10%

Clinton gets all the Floridian delegates and wins the nomination.

Oh...so there are no Floridian Democratic delegates?  So why are we making any predictions?

I am predicting Giuliani does better the expected due to early and or absentee voting. Plus I bet some are feeling sorry for him. He will still loose but not by as much as some are predicting.

Romney 39, McCain 35, Giuliani 13

Romney 35%
McCain 32%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 4%

Clinton 48%
Obama 42%
Edwards 10%
Gravel 0%

Romney   38%
Mcain    35%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 12%
Paul      3%

Hillary 48%
Obama   42%
Edwards 10%

Let's see how the Clinton spin this after leading by as many as 30% in pre-primary polls.

If Hillary doesn't win Florida by double digits she has problems.

I'll take McCain by a small margin over Romney simply because the typical Florida voter probably likes McCain's youthful good looks.

Clinton 53%
Obama 32%
Edwards 11%

Clinton gets a massive turnout from women and Hispanics and it will be record-breaker, even though the delegates won't officially count until later.  

Democrats...It doesn't matter.  Hillary will win the beauty contest.

Republicans...Romney wins due in part to McCain and Guiliani splitting moderates and military voters.

I think anything less than a 60 point win for Clinton is a real loss.  

Note:  This is lighthearted folks, so don't kill me.  :)

Romney 39%, McCain 33%, Giuliani 16%

...will likely be almost completely ignored by the media, despite some who predicted they would play an important role for Clinton...

Clinton 58
Obama 32
Edwards 10

Romney 34
McCain 30
Giuliani 16
Huckabee 12
Paul 6

On the Democratic side:

Clinton 52
Obama 40
Edwards 8

For the Republicans:

McCain 37
Romney 32
Huckabee 15
Giuliani 12
Paul 4

I can't help but notice how no one dares to try and guess how strong the Gravel vote is. Well rest assured people he got at least one today! :D

Plus I was interviewed by the local press. But sadly, not about my Gravel vote it was about the amendment and not the presidential contest.

Turnout seemed about normal, which is light. But there were several first time voters (a couple of young people and a middle aged woman who had no idea how to vote). Beautiful weather for voting today.

Who gives a shit?  No delegates at stake, no one campaigned there.  It's a name recognition contest.  If she doesn't win by at least 20 points, she should be ashamed of herself.  Let's move past this and focus on the Fifth.

I predict:
McCain 37
Romney 34

I don't predict non contests like the democrats beauty pagent. It won't mean anything except to the Clinton supporter's on this site.

Hillary 58%
Obama 30%
Edwards 12%

Romney 36%
McCain 30%
Giuliani 20%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 5%

Hillary   0
Obama     0
Edwards   0

Romney   32
McCain   31
Huckabee 17
Guiliani 16

Clinton 52
Obama 36
Edwards 12

Romney 35
McCain 30
Giuliani 15
Huckabee 15
Paul 5

Clinton 52
Obama 35
Edwards 13

Romney 35
McCain 32
Guiliani 17
Huckabee 12
Paul 4

I was watching CNN last night going on about how "The Kennedys" were backing Obama.  The subject then turned to the Democratic contest for Florida.   One of the analysts said both candidates were attempting to spin the election outcome there.  John King said something to the effect that Clinton could benefit if we decide to report it, then smirked, and made a comment that it was up to us as "journalists" to decide if the results would be important. The rest of the pundits laughed and agreed.

This touches on the point that Wasabi just made.  If the media winds blow a certain way, the Clinton effort to pump up Florida may well backfire.  If the story gets played as a sort of desperate attempt to declare victory on a largely unchallenged playing field, this could well morph into another Clinton-campaign-in-trouble story line, no matter what the numbers.  In turn, the Clintons will succeed to the extent that bloggers, posters, and pundits take FLA seriously and make it seem important.

A SUSA Florida poll covering the two days after SC shows Hillary up by 24. I think Hillary played Florida smart, being the crusader for the voter there almost. Check out the internals they're pretty interesting. Acording to the poll Hillary wins men by a margin of only 1 point less than she wins women.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d485467e-dde3-4a5d-9999-4bbe9d ac800a

FLa

Clinton 55%
Obama   36%
Edwards 14%

McCain 33.1%
Romney 33%
Huck   12.9%
Rudy   12%
Paul    6%
Other   2%

Dead Fred banked some votes

Here are my predictions.

Romney wins by a hair.  There were over a million absentee and early voters in Florida, and my guess is that they peaked during the time Romney was ahead in the polls.  McCain second, and Ron Paul beats 9iu11iani again.  This is the de facto end of Huckabee.

In the Democratic race, Hillary wins.  In fact, after getting Maxine Waters, if she can sew up the Latino vote by either keeping Richardson from endorsing anyone or getting his endorsement, she will run the table in the west, including California, and will get way out in front of Obama.

Edwards will get single digits and he will maybe not drop out, but will stop campaigning after 2/5.

On the Republican side, I predict Romney will get 100% of the delegates and McCain will get 0% of the delegates.

On the Democratic side I predict a tie.  Neither Obama nor Clinton nor Edwards will get any delegates.

Roughly

Clinton 55%
Obama   35%
Edwards 10%

And on the Republican side, McCain edges out Romney.  Giuliani gets just over 20 percent, proclaims it a vindication, and withdraws from the race.

Isn't that the way all - or at least most of these supposedly "closed primaries" work?

I.e., here in Illinois - I guess we have a 'closed primary' --- but that basically means to vote in the Democratic primary you must ask for a Democratic ballot!

Hey, maybe I'm an idiot --- and there are bunches of states out there that make you show your super secret official Democratic party card -- but that's what always puzzled me about the whole "YOU'LL SEE - CLOSED PRIMARIES COMING UP!!!" post.

Am I wrong?   Accepting that caucus states are another matter -- aren't most 'closed primaries' actually just a matter of 'must ask for a Democratic ballot' primaries?

GOP:

Popular vote:
Romney 34.2
McCain 34.2
Huckabee 16.3
Giuliani 9.7
Paul 5.2
Thompson (early votes) 0.4

Delegates:
Romney 100% (awarded by Supreme Court during middle of recount)

Dem:

Popular vote:
Clinton 58.3
Obama 28.5
Edwards 11.4
Gravel 1.4  <= Lots of senile, crotchety old people there - his base
Field (early vote) 0.4

Delegates:
None awarded.

Dems

Clinton will be helped by her call for delegate recognition, retired New Yorkers, and the embrace of Obama by the Kennedy family (JFK is still hated in some Cuban quarters for his 'betrayal' during the Bay of Pigs fiasco).

Clinton - 61
Obama - 25
Edwards - 12

Reps

My head says McCain edges Romney, but it's very, very close.  Let's say:

McCain - 33
Romney - 31
Huckabee - 15
Guiliani - 12
Paul - 4

McCain     34
Romney     32
Huckabee   16
Giuliani   14

Clinton    49
Obama      35
Edwards    14

Clinton 55%
Obama 38%
Edwards 7%

Romney 37
McCain 35
Huckabee 15
Giuliani 9
Paul 4

FL is major test of if the Clinton coalition is going to stand up in a large turnout in a demographically balanced state. If it does after all the press piling on this week over SC, Bill, Kennedy etc she's got clear sledding I'd say. If she breaks 50% it's looking good, the variance from that in either direction will bring either optimism or pessimism. Forget all the chatter and spin about beauty contests, seating, how the media treat it, that's all hoohey. It's a hell of an opinion poll.  

Paul 4%.

Rudy's number may come out better than recent polls suggest because of early voting.

Democratic beauty contest: (echoing enarjay) HRC 0 delegates, Obama 0 delegates, and Edwards 0 delegates.

Clinton 55
Obama 36
Edwards 9

(My prediction: Florida delegation becomes the ultimate kingmaker in Denver.)

Romney 36
McCain 34
Giuliani 16
Huckabee 14

HRC- 62
O-   27
E-   11

Romney 33
McCain 31
Rudy-  17
Huck-  14
Paul-  5

Democratic delegates breakdown..

HRC- 0
O-   0
E-   0

Move on to the Feb 5 contests.

If the DNC doesn't rescind the Penalty placed on democratic voters here in Florida there is going to be a backlash.  I for one will change my party affiliation.  
What nerve the DNC has...they want our hard earned money but stab us in the back while helping us find the wallet we thought we lost...Do they think everyone down here is a Red Necked Republican or spaced out on Meth and toothless???

As for this Primary regulation about party affiliation voting that needs to be changed also...Whether Democrat, Independent or Republican we should be allowed to cross party lines...

Obviously, I'm sick of the "milk-toast" democrates who talk loud and haven't the muscle to stand up and be counted whenever the Republican machine rears its ugly head...

Another interesting sidelight on the FL numbers, if he gets his 80% black vote but shows much weaker performance than previously among whites and hispanics it would appear the Clintons race baiting paid off. Not that I think they did for one minute.

I will go out on a limb here.

I think Obama will do much better that we expect.

Bill has become somewhat unpopular and Hillary has shown she does not control Bill.

FL

Hillary 48% and 0 delegates
Obama 42% and still 0 delegates
Edwards 10% and he should really drop out before making himself irrelevant (I say this as a person who loves the guy and wants to see him have a future in the democratic party.)

I find it really disturbing that Democrats are saying F U to Florida. 1 million people are going to vote. How can you just say you don't matter? It's insanity. Knowing the media, they have bought into that insanity.

GOP:
Romney 42
McCain 40
Huck 12
Guiliani 4
Other 2

Dem: Florida doesn't count. Doesn't matter.

Independents are not allowed to vote in Florida's primary--at all. To allow them to do so is voting fraud.

In Florida, when you REGISTER, you must specify a party. If you are not REGISTERED with either the Republican or Democratic Party 30 days before the election, you do NOT get to vote at all.

That voting poll person just broke the law allowing an independent to vote.

There's a 29 day deadline prior to any election to register.

Somebody fucked up bigtime.

Romney 36
McCain 35
Huckabee 14
Giuliani 10
Paul 4

Clinton  57
Obama 34
Edwards 9

Dont know how many others are as incensed as I am about these chain emails being sent to religious groups and others that question Sen. Barack Obamas patriotism and religious beliefs. (See press link to last weeks open letter from Jewish groups being bombarded with these emails: http://www.adl.org/internet/Letter_obama .asp)

The use of the Internet to spread false information about a political candidate--- and thus to affect the outcome of an election--- is particularly abhorrent to me.

We cannot regress to old-style dirty tricks. In the public interest, we need to get behind these emails---and identify who originated them.

If you have received such an email, please forward it to me.

negemail53@gmail.com

that really matters to Floridians:

The tax initiative will fail.

McCain 39, Romney 32, Guiliani 15, Huckabee 9, rest scattered.

People really don't understand what the Florida race for the Gov nomination meant in '06.  

In the other race, Clinton 58, Obama 30, Edwards 10, rest scattered.

The delegates will definately get seated (Democrats aren't THAT suicidal) but there will be little national reaction to the vote.

If it wasn't for the early voting, I'd pick Romney, but he'd really have to clean up today to make up that deficit.

I'm thinking:

McCain - 35
Romney - 32
Giuliani - 16
Huckabee - 11
Paul - 4
Thompson - 2

and on the Democratic side, these delegates may get seated, but only if there is a clear winner by the convention.  No way these delegates get to weigh in on the nominee unless its a coronation in Colorado.

Clinton - 47
Obama - 38
Edwards - 15

If Hillary wins big, the media spin will be that it doesn't count because its only a beauty contest. But if Obama were to do much better than expected, all of a sudden it will assume great importance.