I don't think there is any way Obama wins California, but I think there's a chance that he keeps things reasonably close in terms of delegates.  That would be a pretty significant accomplishment, given the leads in CA that Clinton has had in the past.

It's mostly the intense supporters of both candidates who send in early ballots. the early poll numbers don't matter as much as you think.

For goodness sake. Haven't we learned enough from polls. I for one hate polls.

How accurate have these averages been? I would think that some very inaccurate polls are used along with some credible ones. For right now, I'll take what the field poll says.

I would suggest waiting for an ARG poll and then predicting the opposite of whatever they say.

Hill's going to have to work for this nomination. But like Kanye West says, what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.

It looks like she's at 12-14% ahead and they still have Edwards around 10% which I don't see holding up. If you look at CA demographics and unless her coalition collapse I find it to believe she's going to lose CA. All this delegate talk has validity of course but if she carries FL and about 19 on Super Tuesday it's very hard to say this guy is the choice of the party.      

Checked the internals of both polls and they say Hillary has a substatial advantage on perception of electability; by better than 2 to 1 in the field poll and almost 2 to 1 in gallup poll the primary voters say Hillary has a better chance to win in November. Californians really believe she is more electable. I don't see Hillary losing this state.

My wife has a lot of family in California.  My mother-in-law hates Hillary (no idea why, pick one of the standard reasons why liberals might dislike her) but I think the whole rest of the family is for HRC.  Mind you, we're talking about a bunch of old Methodist ladies here so this is pretty much right in Hillary's breadbasket.

Apparently in MO and AZ Obama is running ads showing his local supporters talking. I wouldn't be surprised to see ads in CA soon with Congressman Xavier Becerra and Senator Ted Kennedy.

Clinton had to get some negative information on Obama out after Iowa, but she couldn't do it before New Hampshire or Nevada without hurting her chances there. She had little chance of winning South Carolina so it was logical to get Rezko, Iraq waffling, present votes and single payer flip-flops out in the past two weeks. Attacks always have a backlash, and Obama has tried to capitalize on the backlash by charging racism at every turn, but it should fade over the next week before February 5th while the doubts about Obama will remain. Polls will tighten as the backlash passes through, but with luck her gamble will pay off. The other dynamic to take into account is the natural tightening as election day approaches and people make up their minds, hopefully her numbers will rise enough to stay comfortably ahead.

As long as he comes out of California with a solid chunk of delegates, I'll be happy.

Obama and Kennedy are headed to California together today or tomorrow...its going to play well on California TV over the next few days. Kennedy gets to be the big dawg for a couple days--the attack dog--he gets to play the role of VP--and tell the voters exactly why they shouldn't vote for clinton and they should vote for change. And Obama gets to keep on being Obama.

California is going to go down to the wire. It prides itself on bing liberal and it moved up its primary to have a voice in the process. There are lots of young people, lots of well educated wealthy liberals and lots of activists. The Clintons cannot take California for granted.

Trying again... (Hopefully this will not double post).

"one-fifth of California Democrats expected to vote in the Democratic primary have already sent in their ballots"

I don't think we know that this year. Given all indpendents will be voting in the D primary and the general increase in turnout this year, I think California could double (or more) projections.

In general I think the polls are dubious, in part because of the turnout question. If the internals of the polls I've seen hold up, it strikes me that it will end up being a very close race. Obama could even win it if he wins 80 percent plus of the black vote and cuts into Clinton's lead among latinos.

Independents are not allowed to vote in the GOP primary, only in the Democratic primary.