This seems to be kinda a stretch. My guess is that it is just cheaper to do a national ad buy than to buy state-by-state. I doubt this will get much traction.

I assume everyone is looking for an excuse to compete in Florida, now that 3 of the 4 early states are over with.  This might just supply the pretext.

I have no idea if Obama's ad buy is a technical violation of the pledge (it depends on the DNC's definition of campaigning, and the meaning of "is"), but doesn't it seem a bit silly that an agreement not to campaign in two specific states would turn into a ban on all forms of national advertising?

Let's just scrap the stupid pledge and start campaigning in Florida already.  That state needs to hear from Democrats because we're going to want it in the GE.

It was always going to matter. I'll be interested to see how Obama handles this. If he thinks his chances are zip he'll try to pass it off as Clinton spin but it's opened the door for her to campaign which in all honesty I believe they intended to all along.  

If Obama is going to cheat on the pledge then the Clinton camp must get a committment that the delegates count.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton says the campaign asked the cable channels whether they could prevent the ad from airing in Florida, but were told that was impossible.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 108/Welcome_Florida.html

I think you will see all (both?) candidates campaigning there by the time of the FL primary.

One big question is if the pledge is still operative after all the "early" contests (IA, NH, NV, and SC) are over with.  Once they are done with SC next week then there are at least a few days for GOTV.

I speculated earlier this month that a momentum-deprived Obama would campaign in Florida, either by breaking the pledge outright or by stretching its limits, such as a national TV buy (which I think is a blatant violation) or doing large-scale GOTV rally/fundraisers that could attract big crowds and earned media while still technically being ok because of the pledge's fundraising exemption.

Honestly, what option does Obama have?  What is his February 5 strategy except to still rely on momentum?

in the 22 February 5 states. Running ads on CNN seems like a reasonable way to reach politically-aware people in those states.

That ads will also run on CNN in Florida is probably not the main thinking behind the ad buy.

When are you going to do something about the increasingly racist venom that is destroying your once wonderful site?  

http://gobacktotexas.mydd.com/story/2008 /1/21/125812/345

http://gobacktotexas.mydd.com/story/2008 /1/21/15941/0872

http://gobacktotexas.mydd.com/story/2008 /1/21/151747/305

By the way, I troll-rated a couple people who were referring to me and others as sexist merely because we did not support Hillary Clinton and I lost my trusted user status.  

Any media consultant would know if an ad would air in the florida media market.  because this is not a mistake, i believe it is obama's attempt to create yet another meaningless distraction during this campaign.  besides, his surrogates essentially campaigned for him in michigan with their uncommitted drive.

Wow, they are really stretching the truth.

They're running national ads because it's cheaper to run national ads than targeted ad buys in 22 different states.

He's not buying ads in Florida, Jerome. Don't buy the spin.

Know what we should be talking about? The strategy of running a national ad buy rather than targeted ad buys in "swing" states. Smart. But let's play "gotcha" instead.

This is yet another rookie gaffe by Team Obama.  His actions never line up with his words.  This is a simple fact.

Nice to see that the Clintonites are still so scared of Obama that they are spinning a national cable TV station airtime buy as a Florida cable TV station airtime buy.

Desperation.  Stretch.  Attack.  Smear.  Rinse. Repeart.

ROVE.

Wow, I haven't been to MyDD in a while and didn't realize it had become anti-Obama HQ.

I suppose this sort of divisiveness is an unfortunate side effect of people-powered democracy.

Wow, jerome saying axelrod is ripping off obama again. jerome saying obama's camp screwed up again... what a shock!!

Try to go five minutes to without hammering Obama,jerome..you might respect yourself in the morning.

Survey USA Florida Democratic Primary

Clinton 56
Obama 23
Edwards 12

I don't know how this plays, so don't scream at me, but the Politico story has updated to say the following:

"UPDATE: Though the Clinton campaign convened a conference call with several early-state supporters, Obama's claims the stamp of approval approval from the only early-state chair still in play, South Carolina's Carol Fowler.

"Both national cable networks told us it would be impossible for us to run advertising nationally that excluded only Florida. For that reason we consulted with the South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Carol Fowler who told us unequivocally she did not consider this to be in violation of pledge made to the early states," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

Think about it for two minutes. Who benefits from a campaign in FL particularly if she loses as seems likely in SC. Hillary bless you Clinton. I'd say Obama's campaign made easy to do organizational slip up and it's allowed Clinton to put FL on map in a "legal" way. He's scum that Penn. Glad he's on her side.

Grow up Obamanauts. This is politics. You make a slip like bringing up racial issues, saying Reagan walked on water, etc etc and you get beaten up. This is a doozy. Because it not only validates FL but indirectly MI. She's sharp that Clinton girl.  

Evidently Obama's campaign knew that the ads would run in Florida. So I don't think you can call this an oversight by his campaign.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton says the campaign asked the cable channels whether they could prevent the ad from airing in Florida, but were told that was impossible. politico

IMO, it was a dumb move by his campaign. I would think that the last thing that they would want is to open up Florida for Clinton.

This is a really ridiculous manufactured controversy.  Common sense says that national ad buys are NOT campaigning in FL even if they are seen in FL.  It's clear that an integral part of Obama's strategy is national ad buys as part of his campaign for the 2/5 states and to raise his standing in national polls.  He needs momentum and he needs it fast.  He tried to see if those buys could be blacked out in FL, and when they could not, he still needs to go forward with his 2/5 strategy.  He is behind in the 2/5 states.  He can't wait to run national ads until after FL (in fact, I suspect that's what the uproar from the Clinton camp is really about - barring Obama from national ad buys until a week before 2/5 because of their potential impact on NON-FL states...).

If anything, Clinton should be allowed to buy national ad buys as well regardless of whther they are seen in FL or not.  Case closed.

I hear Sen. Clinton appeared on MEET THE PRESS last week, and that show airs in Florida too!

I would like to underscore some of my fear about what will happen in the general election because voters in Michigan and Florida feel disenfranchised with some numbers.

I think people are far too glib about handing out punishment to these states for breaking the rules.

My fear of what the repercussions could be was underscored on the day of the Michigan primary.  Bucking the national trend, hundreds of thousands more Republicans voted in their primary than Democrats voted in theirs.

The high voter turn out for the early primaries and caucuses has been touted as a good sign for the general election across the nation.  The Nevada party even used it to show how "Democrats won."  I haven't seen totals from the Nevada Republicans yet but it is assumed to be far fewer than the over 100,000 Dems who caucused.

I agree with the speculation that this high Dem turnout will be good for our party.  It shows huge grassroots excitement about and investment in our candidates.  The poor Republican turn out does not bode well for them.

My first question is: do you agree that the higher Democratic turnout in these states shows Dems are poised to do well there in the fall?

My answer is yes and I think that is commonly shared.

Now look at these numbers:

Iowa Dems: 239,000
Iowa Reps: 119,000

NH Dems: 283,000
NH Reps: 141,000

NV Dems: 120,000?
NV Reps: Low low low low

MI Dems: 592,798
MI Reps: 843,242

I did the Michigan numbers myself so please forgive some addition errors.

That point aside, the Dems have been swamping the Republicans in turnout and voter excitement, except in Michigan.  In fact, the Dems have a 250,000 VOTE DEFICIT in Michigan.

While there will obviously be a long general election campaign to grow excitement for the nominee, I think this shows the huge risk involved in turning the party's back on these states.

The voters want to feel excited and invested.  Because of this they will feel turned away when they are told again and again by the DNC, bloggers, and the campaigns (see Obama memo above).  I am convinced for this reason the DNC will seat the delegates, but I am worried it will be late enough that there will be lingering feelings of resentment and a huge amount of ammo for the Republicans to hammer away at the message that the Democrats disenfranchised these states.

Big Unanswered Questions: Anyone think this was an oversight by the Obama campaign? Can Obama just blame David Axelrod? How much of a commission will Axelrod gain from running ads in a state that doesn't matter?

No. Yes. Whatever he gets.

If it were Clinton or Edwards running ads in Florida you bet Obama would make a stink about it because it's clear to me he favors a scorched earth policy when dealing with competitors.  

However, in this case IOKIYO.

Nothing could be better for Senator Obama than Clinton wasting time and $$$ in Florida instead of spending it on February 5 states.

The delegates will not be awarded and the more time and $ she spends there compared to other candidates, the less the result means.  The results of the Republican primary are going to be the big news and the Dem result will likely receive similar coverage to MI.

This is question Obama fans need to ask themselves. I think not but they may feel differently. SC has been converted into a black favorite son election. Everyone expects him to win and if he doesn't get a landslide it will be regarded as tepid endorsement. The Clintons are incredibly skilful at playing expectation games as we saw in NV.    

What is Obama's path to the nomination now?  How much money does he have?

Clinton is so full of shit on this one.  How about an UPDATE Jerome on the fact this was a NATIONAL AD BUY ON A CABLE STATION?  CLINTON, SCHULZ AND THE REST OF THE GANG OF IDIOTS PROVE WHAT LIARS THEY TRULY ARE!

I think it's the Obama campaign that wants to go into Florida.  In a memo last week, his campaign suggested with no evidence that Clinton was going to break the ban and "secretly campaign" in Florida.   How one secretly campaigns, I have no idea.

What I do know is that Obama is very far behind in Florida and that would seem to indicate he would benefit most from campaigning there.   I suspect Obama did the national ad on purpose to get Clinton to go to Florida so he can go to Florida (and claim the national ad didn't count and Clinton broke the ban first).

you'd think he'd post the Obama camp's statements about this latest Clinton camp manufactured controversy, but that's not how works here at MYDLC...

Weren't you telling us it was going to be, like, the most important thing EVAH!?