The Caucus Factor

by Todd Beeton, Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 07:50:15 AM EST

Today is the first time Nevada is caucusing and I've read very little about a central difference between voting and caucusing that is likely to impact turnout today: voting is anonymous, caucusing is not. Last night we spoke to a Clinton supporter who is clearly politically active and does intend to caucus for her today, but has reservations (and thinks others do too) about the fact that he'll have to stand up publicly for Hillary vs. voting in private. A local journalist also mentioned to me that he wonders if the culinary workers supporting Hillary will feel intimidated by the fact that their support of her, in opposition to their union's endorsement, will be out in the open. Just one of the many unknowns going into today's caucus.

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Nevada Caucus (all tags)

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John Edwards MSM New Video

http://www.truveo.com/2008-election-vide os/john-edwards

by dearreader 2008-01-19 07:52AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

The caucus is the most democratic piece of crap I have ever seen in a so called advanced democratic country.

I don't understand why in the world I would have to indicate who I am voting for in public , that should be done in the privacy of a voting booth.

Then to have to sit for 2 hrs for the sh** is beyond me.

If I was in a caucus state I would never vote.

by lori 2008-01-19 07:59AM | 0 recs

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the lack of secrecy is an issue

for some, but I think instances of intimidation at precinct caucuses are rare (at least in Iowa).

The inconvenience of a caucus is a problem too, and obviously keeps turnout down. That's one of the reasons I was amazed that the turnout in Iowa this year was nearly double the previous record. That's a lot of new people who were willing to deal with the hassle.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-19 08:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: the lack of secrecy is an issue

Amazing how much of the new turnout was in precincts along the interstate highways from Illinois.

by hwc 2008-01-19 08:49AM | 0 recs

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the caucuses didn't take so long

back when turnout was a lot lower. My brother caucused in my precinct in 1976, and the caucus was about 26 people in someone's living room. That's less than 10 percent of the number of people who attended our precinct caucus this year.

Higher turnout makes the caucuses more representative of the will of Democrats, but the problem is that it takes a lot longer to get everyone in groups and count them.

We didn't even have time for a full debate on the platform resolutions, which is one of the best parts of the caucus process for the highly politically engaged people. Our precinct simply approved all the resolutions people submitted as a package.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-19 08:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

NBC has ALREADY predicted NV for Romney.

by kristoph 2008-01-19 08:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

AP calls Nevada for Romney. Romney now has 3 Golds and tow Silvers. Not bad.

by Vox Populi 2008-01-19 08:05AM | 0 recs

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Ron Paul in second?

Entrance poll seems to indicate Paul well ahead of McCain in third

by IVR Polls 2008-01-19 08:07AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

Are the GOPs voting before the Dems?

by Piuma 2008-01-19 08:12AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

Yes, the crazies were at 9am and the Democrats are at 11am. No surprise Romney won. NV has a lot of Mormons and he's the only major republican to campaign in the state. Better him than McCain.

by werd2406 2008-01-19 08:14AM | 0 recs

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so does that mean a lot of people

will caucus with both parties?

What is to prevent a Republican from caucusing for Romney at 9 am and switching party affiliation to caucus for Obama at 11:30?

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-19 08:44AM | 0 recs

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The Double Caucus Option

A very good point. For a few days now, I have heard that double caucusing was a real possibility.

Yet...here we are in the 11th hour (12th hour?), and I have yet to hear any "official comment" on the propriety and/or widespread possibility of this happening.

Ah...the wild west? What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?

by Demo37 2008-01-19 08:54AM | 0 recs

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You should've read my diary yesterday

No Secret Ballot Caucuses R B S

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/18/1336 6/5790#readmore

by fairleft 2008-01-19 08:15AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

by fairleft 2008-01-19 08:15AM | 0 recs

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GOP Entrance Poll

Here are the CNN entrance poll for the Republican race, which has been called for Romney.

Mitt Romney: 41.16%
Ron Paul: 23.04%
John McCain: 12%
Fred Thompson: 8.48%
Mike Huckabee: 6.88%
Rudy Giuliani: 5%
Duncan Hunter: 1.44%

by RJEvans 2008-01-19 08:17AM | 0 recs

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Viability

Does the GOP have similar viability rules to the Democrats? Could end up Romney 75%, Paul 25%

by IVR Polls 2008-01-19 08:20AM | 0 recs

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Re: Viability

The Democrats use the "Iowa rules." The Republicans are much more straight forward. It's essentially a straw poll.

by Vox Populi 2008-01-19 08:22AM | 0 recs

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Re: Viability

The Republican one is voting for DELEGATES themselves and its a secret ballot. I don't think they have viability rules.

by werd2406 2008-01-19 08:23AM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP Entrance Poll

To think the MSM thought Rudy was a contender. He's finished behind Ron Paul in all five contests so far.

by Vox Populi 2008-01-19 08:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP Entrance Poll

Rudy was the favorite....until he enacted his Feb 5th rule which by the looks of it so far, will be his downfall.

by werd2406 2008-01-19 08:24AM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP Entrance Poll

I never saw him as the favorite, ever. Frankly when he "got sick" back in December I was confident he was going to drop out. But, I guess this is just as effective. McCain's resurgence came at Rudy's expense.

by Vox Populi 2008-01-19 08:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP Entrance Poll

Wow Ron Paul in second place with 23%???

Just wow.

by need some wood 2008-01-19 08:23AM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP Entrance Poll

Nevada Republicans are more so libertarian than hard core wackos. Ron Paul and Romney spent the most time in NV (and seemed to be the ONLY ones) which is the results you're seeing.

by werd2406 2008-01-19 08:24AM | 0 recs

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Paul in second place

Not too surprising if the turnout was low, considering how devoted his supporter are, and the strength of libertarianism in the west.

I should have put him higher up in my Nevada prediction thread post.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-19 08:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: Paul in second place

Isn't Nevada a no-income-tax State?

by Piuma 2008-01-19 08:47AM | 0 recs

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Ron Paul...

I love it.

The story out of the Republican Nevada caucuses should be Ron Paul's shocking second place finish in Nevada...double MSM darling McCain!

Let's get all the MSM talking heads to discuss Ron Paul for a week!

by Demo37 2008-01-19 08:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

I think that is the reason why she lost in IA, because some people like her and want to vote for her, but are afraid to publicly support her, out of fear because she is so polarizing. That is why she won in NH.

Caucuses should be banned or highly discouraged, because it is worth nothing. Just b.s. at best.

by American1989 2008-01-19 08:33AM | 0 recs

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I don't think so

She may have had more supporters who were unable to attend because of family or work obligations, but I don't think that people attending the caucuses would have been afraid to stand up for Hillary. She was viable just about everywhere. Walk into any precinct caucus and there would be a welcoming group of Clinton supporters for you to sit with.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-19 08:40AM | 0 recs

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Re: I don't think so

Yeah, you could caucus for the woman: if you were willing to take the beating from your husband when you got home.

by hwc 2008-01-19 08:51AM | 0 recs

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Re: I don't think so

Or, if you are a man, willing to take the scorn and ridicule from your male friends, family members, and coworkers for having voted for woman.
In private a lot of men support Hillary Clinton, but it take a lot of courage for a regular Joe to publicly admit that he will support a woman for President.

by fetboy 2008-01-19 09:04AM | 0 recs

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Good point

I think your scenario may happen more often than is admitted - especially in rural or Southern states.

by highgrade 2008-01-19 09:14AM | 0 recs

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a lot of men were for Hillary

I knew of several couples where the man was for Hillary and the woman was for a different candidate.

Give it a rest, people.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-19 09:23AM | 0 recs

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The truth

90-95% of all Americans will go to great lengths to dispel any belief that they are racist or prejudice toward someone based on their heritage, but more the 50% of all American have no problem spouting homophobic rhetoric or making public sexist joke. And very few men will champion a woman's issue.
The vast majority of American men are truly color blind on political, social, and economic issues, but a lot of men feel threated by women who seek power (and women have shown little reservation against powerful men).

by fetboy 2008-01-19 10:05AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Caucus Factor

It's probably going to be very difficult for Edwards or Clinton to get 15% in those at-large caucus locations. Obama likely already has 10% of the delegates locked up.

by Progressive America 2008-01-19 09:29AM | 0 recs