Final MI Tracking Poll Confirms Romney Momentum Going Into Today's Vote
by Todd Beeton, Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 02:44:41 AM EST
Following up on my post from yesterday, the final Mitchell Interactive tracking poll out of Michigan (589 LVs, 1/12-14, MOE +/- 4%) shows Mitt Romney continuing to extend his lead over John McCain in today's primary election to 6 points, a 12-point swing since McCain's win in New Hampshire.
| Candidate | 1/12-14 | 1/10, 1/12-13 | 1/9-10, 1/12 | 1/9-10 |
| Romney | 35 | 29 | 21 | 17 |
| McCain | 29 | 27 | 22 | 23 |
| Huckabee | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Much as we saw with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, extrapolating the tracking poll's rolling average, Mitt Romney appears to have had particularly strong Monday numbers. From Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive:
"As the undecided voters make up their minds, more are turning to Mitt Romney than to John McCain. We have also seen the participation among Republicans increase to 80% at the end of phoning tonight. That means that 80% of the voters taking part in the GOP primary identify themselves as Republicans."
While 80% seems high to me, Steve Mitchell does have a reputation for correctly predicting Michigan primary results, from Mitchell's own press release:
Steve Mitchell has been the most accurate pollster in Michigan in the last four presidential campaigns. Polling for the Detroit News in the 2000 MI GOP Primary, his final polling correctly had John McCain winning over George W. Bush. Polling again for the Detroit News in the 2004 MI Dem Primary, his final polling correctly showed the top four candidates in the order they finished and had John Kerry at 52%, his final margin.
I'm prepared to predict Romney will win Michigan by single digits, but hey, that doesn't mean all you Democrats For Romney should sit today out.
Get out there (polls open at 7am and close at 8pm) and deliver one for Willard today.
Update [2008-1-15 13:17:26 by Todd Beeton]:Zogby has Romney up 2 since yesterday's tracking poll with McCain staying put but still with a slight lead. John Zogby elaborates (h/t TPM):
Our final track, to be exact, in Michigan is McCain 27.1% to Romneys 25.6% and Huckabee at 14.9%. Our call center made 553 calls just on Monday to get as close a read on this as late as we could. Monday alone stood at Romney 26.7% to McCains 26.3%.
Can't find what Zogby predicts will be the percentage of GOP primary voters that are Republicans, which is looking to be the decisive factor in today's primary.
Tags: 2008 Presidential election, John McCain, Michigan primary, Mitt Romney, Republican nomination (all tags)









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