A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

The numbers from the Democratic primary in Michigan, with 81 percent of precincts reporting, show Hillary Clinton well above 50 percent -- 57 percent, to be exact. Even with 38 percent of the primary electorate giving Clinton a bode of no-confidence in this one-person race by voting "uncommitted" and the contest not awarding any delegates to the Democratic National Convention (at least not yet), this win presumably gives Clinton at least somewhat of a momentum boost heading into Nevada and, even more importantly, South Carolina.

But something in tonight's results from Michigan should strike some concern with the Clinton camp, too, particularly as pertains to South Carolina. Josh Marshall:

According to the Fox exit polls, in the Democratic primary tonight, Clinton took 25% of the African-American vote and "uncommitted" is getting 69% of the African-American vote. Now remember, Hillary is only major candidate on the ballot. The others, and even Hillary to a degree, boycotted the primary because Michigan got crosswise with the national Democratic party over the date of their primary. Rep. Conyers (D) is an Obama supporter and he pushed for the state's African-American community to vote "uncommitted." There's too much screwy about the Democratic primary in Michigan tonight to draw too much from this; but it is suggestive.

Chris Bowers frames these results as a win for Barack Obama, and I can't say that I think he's too far off. If African-Americans in Michigan are overwhelmingly willing to vote for a non-candidate over Clinton -- particularly at a significantly higher rate than White voters -- it's not beyond the realm of imagination that they will have trouble voting at a much higher rate for Obama than for Clinton. While a lot of folks within the Beltway establishment may have chalked up the kerfuffle over past week and a half between the two leading candidates over issues of race as a win for Clinton, at least in the short term it looks like the fracas is having a seriously deleterious effect of Clinton's support among African-Americans.

Tags: African-Americans, Hillary Clinton, Michigan, South Carolina, South Carolina Primary (all tags)

Comments

63 Comments

Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

The "uncommitted" option got a LOT of publicity, particularly in Detroit where John Conyers worked hard to get the word out.

Literally every single person I spoke to in Michigan, when I suggested that it wasn't much of an election since only Hillary was on the ballot, responded, "Oh, but you're supposed to vote uncommitted if you like Obama or Edwards."  People knew.

Every poll since Iowa has shown Obama doing very well with the AA vote and I doubt anyone is surprised.  But this just reinforces what a mistake it was for him to pull his name off the ballot in a state with a large AA population.

Plus, there are a lot of Muslims in Michigan, and maybe some of them would have gotten that email and voted for him. ;)

by Steve M 2008-01-15 06:17PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan
Everyone I knew was confused as hell about it.  
I expected uncommitted to be lower and Clinton to be higher than the actual results so, what do I know?
by skipos 2008-01-15 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Also, I was watching C-SPAN the other day, and the head of the Michican Democratic Party (can't remember his name) was taking phone calls. A few callers were angry that they could not choose between all the candidates,  and they seemed angry at Michigan officials for forcing the issue.  When the issue was brought up that people might switch over to vote in the Republican primary, he suggested they should still vote in the Democratic primary, and an uncommitted vote would send their message to Michigan officials.  He also felt that delegates would be awarded at some point - he suggested there would be a way for MI to award the uncommited delegates.  So how do you know how many of these uncommitted were for Edwards, Obama, or making a statement against the Michigan Democratic party?

by AnnC 2008-01-16 02:36AM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

As an AA, I understand what's going on. AA's are a little mad at Hillary. BO did what he set out to do-cause a divide between the Clintons and AAs. However, BO is underestimating Hill's charm. She will win them.  Not Bill, she will. Stay tuned!

by lonnette33 2008-01-15 06:17PM | 0 recs
This is the type of patronizing attitude

towards AA's that the Clinton's have shown throughout their career. That you, as an AA, would sit there nodding your head to the idea that they're going to come back to the "charming" Hillary, even though it appears that many of them were voting against her specifically because of her recent comments, speaks to the kind of twisted devotion to the Clinton's that is being rejected in SC and beyond.

by highgrade 2008-01-15 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: This is the type of patronizing attitude

Sounds like you're the one being patronizing.

by Steve M 2008-01-15 06:25PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Nice try. The Clintons did this to themselves. I know you like to demonize Obama in every instance, but your comments are way off.

by Lawdawg 2008-01-15 06:34PM | 0 recs
The Clintons are responsible for this mess.

"The Clinton presidential campaign's apparent blind ambition for power runs the risk of destroying Clinton's reservoir of earned political integrity and affection among black people," - Clarence B. Jones, former personal counsel, advisor, draft speech writer and close friend of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

by Lawdawg 2008-01-15 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

This really pissed me off, because this whole race baiting was so unnecessary.  IMO, Obama HAD the majority of the Black vote the moment he won Iowa.  His momentum was not so much about NH, but about SC and across the country.  To then twist the comments, and I'm focusing on the MLK and fairytales comments, to make it racist was just so nasty.  It really left a bad feeling with me.  

On the other hand part of what's going on in Michigan is the Muslim vote.  I think you will find that most of voted uncommitted in favor of Obama, because they don't necessarily think Hillary, being the Senator from NY, will do much to change the the Middle East's #1 bone of contention, Palestine.

by Kingstongirl 2008-01-15 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

I actually don't know how colossal the Muslim vote is in Michigan compared to elsewhere.  An awful lot of the Arabs in Michigan are Christian.

by Steve M 2008-01-15 07:02PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Let me be clear, I don't think it has anything to do with his name be it middle or otherwise.  I think it's more against Hillary, who they don't think will do much to change the issue.  I say this anecdotally, I was having a very passionate conversation with a friend who lives in DC but keeps her voter registration in MI.  She is Muslim and very politically active within the Muslim community.   She was stridently against Hillary and she discussed her strong opposition to Hillary based on what she felt was her tacit support of Israeli settlements in Gaza and flak vests for said settlers.  It was not a discussion in context of Christian vs. Muslim, because she is not particularly religious. It was more about in terms of human rights and a strong belief that Hillary would not move that issue forward.  Because of that position she was going to vote uncommitted and felt that there would be strong wave in that direction.

by Kingstongirl 2008-01-15 07:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Muslim vote

The county with highest percent Muslim voted 46% uncommitted. 50% Hillary.

by del 2008-01-16 07:40AM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number of Clinton's Win in Michigan

The headlines I've seen on the Michigan Democratic primary have been

"Clinton Wins Meaningless Michigan Primary"

"Clinton Wins Michigan Beauty Pageant"

"Clinton Edges 'Uncommitted' in Michigan"

by Vox Populi 2008-01-15 06:17PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number of Clinton's Win in Michigan

MSM being negative towards Hillary and marginalizing her victory.  Say it ain't so.

The polls from Michigan have been giving her 20-25% advantage for the last month.  So if she wins by 18-19%, doesn't seem too far off.

by comebackkid 2008-01-15 06:23PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number of Clinton's Win in Michigan

Um, she had no serious competitors on the ballot, she won zero delegates, she spent no money and didn't campaign there.

How is it a meaningful victory?  The MSM is actually reporting the truth.

by Vox Populi 2008-01-15 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number of Clinton's Win in Michigan

I didn't say it was not meaningless, but just another excuse for MSM to come up with negative headlines with Clinton's name in it.

Either way, Michigan shouldn't have much affect for either side.

by comebackkid 2008-01-15 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Uncommitted votes are votes for either Edwards or Obama.  Clinton won big here.

If you remember, Clinton was always in the high 40's (and passed 50!) throughout most of the 2007, until the polling stopped when the DNC ruled against the state.  Her strong numbers were one of the reasons why Obama pulled his behind the scene's deal with Biden, Richardson, Edwards, etc to force Clinton to pull out.

by BigBoyBlue 2008-01-15 06:25PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

This is an unfair assessment of the vote; primarily because we don't know if it is because of that, there is NO evidence to suggest that. Rep. Conyers campaigned heavily for Obama and ran ads to urge voting for uncommitted.

So that assessment is unfair.

However, this shows that the black vote is a lock for Obama.

That still didn't help him win the primary. But, in SC, it will.

by American1989 2008-01-15 06:26PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Are you making this stuff up?  John did indeed urge people to vote uncommitted.

Gregg Krupa / The Detroit News

Two supporters of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama announced today that they will produce and air campaign advertisements urging voters to cast "uncommitted" ballots in Michigan's Democratic Presidential primary on Tuesday.
U.S. Rep. John Conyers, D-Detroit, and Detroit City Councilwoman Monica Conyers said they are acting because of the failure of state and national leaders of the Democratic Party to salvage a consequential primary for voters in Michigan.

"Democratic voters have been disenfranchised, indeed had their vote rendered meaningless, by not being able to vote for viable Democratic candidates because of Democratic party rules that evade reality," said Monica Conyers. "We urge Democratic party voters to cast a ballot for uncommitted if the candidate of their choice, such as Senator Barack Obama, is not on the ballot."

Now tell us again how there is NO evidence .

by Denny Crane 2008-01-15 06:55PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Give us a break with the "they are mad at her" stuff. She made one dumb comment, that wasn't that bad to begin with, it was taken way out of context by the belt way blowhards and that allowed the "uncommitted" African-Americans an excuse to switch to BO. The candidate they were always going to support.

I don't have any problems with that supporting one favorite son, he is a great campaigner he and gives the African-American community its best chance to win a presidential nomination ever. But don't use one dumb comment as an excuse to dump on the Clinton's. People who have been working for minority causes for 3 decades. It is very transparent, IMO.

by ND1979 2008-01-15 06:29PM | 0 recs
Turnout was 7%?

I read on Open Left that turnout was 7%. Wasn't there some sort of threshold of 15% that Democrats had to reach in order for the DNC to even consider seating Michigan's delegates? Correct me if I'm wrong here...

by elrod 2008-01-15 06:30PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

How does it make one feel to know that "uncommitted" beat out Hillary 46% to 43% in the most liberal country in the state, Washtenaw county, site of Ann Arbor and the U of Michigan. This is especially true since the media were repeating the notion that the election would not count on the Democratic side.

by shergald 2008-01-15 06:37PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Where did you get that info?  That is very interesting.

by skipos 2008-01-15 06:41PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

County by county results from MSNBC. Washtenaw county was the only one in which uncommitted beat Hillary.

by shergald 2008-01-16 03:23AM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Just like in IA, Johnson and Story Counties, home of U of Iowa and Iowa State.  College professors and their students love BO.

This does not surprise me.

by CVDem 2008-01-15 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

If Hillary gets edged 46-43 in one of the most liberal counties in the state of Michigan, it's a long dreary road ahead for her opponents.

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-15 07:23PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

The vote was uncommitted versus Hillary. Even then I suspect that only the most fervent proBO or proEdwards supporters voted. The soft supporters likely passed since the importance of this primary has been played down, even as possibly only symbolic as it may not count.

by shergald 2008-01-16 03:26AM | 0 recs
Obama breaks 40%

Obama breaks 40% as Hillary falls to 55%. It is truly amazing that Clinton couldn't beat Uncommitted by more than 15%.

by Obama08 2008-01-15 06:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama breaks 40%

Sure, if you pretend Edwards got 0 votes, Obama did totally awesome.

It's really amusing to watch all this spin of the results.

by Steve M 2008-01-15 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama breaks 40%

You know, if I were Hillary I would be thrilled to take 55% against Obama and Edwards (who both make up that 40%) after losing Iowa and squeaking by in New Hampshire.

by beerwulf 2008-01-15 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama breaks 40%

You don't live in Michigan, do you?  There was a lot of confusion about this primary, people writing in candidates only to have them discarded, many non-Clinton supporters not seeing the point of voting etc.

It isn't a loss, but to be the only frontrunner on the ballot and win 55% is very, very far from a victory.

by skipos 2008-01-15 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama breaks 40%

A win is a win is a win.  MSNBC and Noron just reported that in their exit polls 73% of the uncommitted vote would have gone to Obama, which (roughly) comes out to 30% for Obama.  So if you're just comparing Hillary to Obama, that's 55% versus 30% which is a 25-point margin of victory.

And when you have three main candidates that are as high-quality as these are, Clinton winning 55% to 30% is pretty impressive.

by beerwulf 2008-01-15 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama breaks 40%

I don't expect anyone outside of Michigan to understand the massive confusion that faced Edwards and Obama supporters, NOT Hillary supporters.  Our governor was going on national news telling everyone to vote for Hillary, and doing a piss poor job of explaining other options.  But if you want to declare "mission accomplished" be my guest.

by skipos 2008-01-16 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama breaks 40%

Are you suggesting that no one voted for Edwards?

by Denny Crane 2008-01-15 06:57PM | 0 recs
More correctly.
Uncommitted got 40% of 7% turn out. Clinton can claim moral victory in that she got more votes than McCain did, without even having campaigned herself.
To me the best thing about the Michigan primary is that Rudy (the most evil of all the candidates) only got 3% of the Republican vote. Thompson likewise only got 4%, but I am betting that both Rudy and Thompson will stick around till at least Florida.
Realistically, on the Republican side it has become a race between McCain and Romney, with an outside shot for the Christian zealot candidate, Huck, to take the nomination if the Fundies can come out in mass for him (possible, but doubtful).
No one can really spin an outcome for the Democratic candidates based on the Michigan results, but the Democrats can feel comfortable that they will do well against a Republican in Michigan, even if they don't campaign, but I hope the Democrats don't make that mistake again (they have 11 months to undo the damage they incurred upon themselves in Michigan).
The Democrats have to campaign in Florida.
And I hope every state learned not to violate the rules governing primaries.
by fetboy 2008-01-15 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama breaks 40%

or ...

Hillary receives more votes then all other Democrats combined!!!

... or maybe ..

African American voter break for Edwards ginving him nearly 40% of the vote. Obama fades.

... or how about ...

40% vote for Biden as a show of support

... or maybe even ...

40% of votes have hanging chads

by kristoph 2008-01-15 07:03PM | 0 recs
well of course obama go huge AA numbers

thats the whole reason they played the race card to begi with!  Duh!

Now the press has ignored this of course.  The only place today that even had Rep. John Lewis quoted saying the Obamas campaign falsely schemed with a list of race baiting charges to the media.  They used the race card this week to gain votes ad the only place this was reported was here a mydd in my diary!  Though he said this last night on PBS News Hour, no media outlet reported his words.  it didnt fit their agenda and theyre all terrified of discussing race in any way except in a way that makes obama look innocent and the clintons guilty.

I saw how kumbaya Obama and Hillary were tonight, but the false foul act has already been done.
So now through his party splitting actions,obama has 70 % of the black vote.

Chicago Style indeed.

Happy MLK's birthday.
Obam slandered good dems, divided our Party and picked up  slw of angry commmited black voers.

New politics indeed!

by Seymour Glass 2008-01-15 06:46PM | 0 recs
The Clintons did this, not Obama

"The Clinton presidential campaign's apparent blind ambition for power runs the risk of destroying Clinton's reservoir of earned political integrity and affection among black people," - Clarence B. Jones, former personal counsel, advisor, draft speech writer and close friend of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

by Lawdawg 2008-01-15 07:04PM | 0 recs
bul sh%t

.

   "It is unfortunate that people have tried to distort what Mrs. Clinton had to say about Dr. King," "I think there has been a deliberate and systematic attempt by some people in the Obama campaign to really fan the flames about race and to really distort what Senator Clinton said.  I understood and I think most right thinking people understood what she said.

   "President and Senator Clinton have a record, a history, a very long history of bringing people together.  No right thinking American would ever think that Senator or President Clinton would ever do anything that would use the race card"

   "I must tell you...I'm trying to set the record straight...the Obama camp is doing something else, theyr'e sending out memos to the media trying to suggest that the Clintons are playing the race card."

   -Rep. John Lewis on News Hour 1/14

by Seymour Glass 2008-01-15 07:42PM | 0 recs
When Wayne & Washtenaw come in

The final numbers will be:

Clinton 54%, Uncommitted 41%.

Doesn't strike me as very impressive for HRC.

by commissar 2008-01-15 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: When Wayne & Washtenaw come in

... or you could say that Clinton received more votes then all other Democrats combined despite huge AA opposition.

It's all spin though. This was always a meaningless contest.

by kristoph 2008-01-15 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: When Wayne & Washtenaw come in

Well, if it's Clinton 54 and Obama & Edwards combined at 41, you can keep throwing Hillary into briar patches like that all the way to Denver, proclaiming it to be bad news for her all the way.

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-15 07:20PM | 0 recs
right

even though the only ads running were obama boosters saying vote uncommitted.

hillary ran no ads.

everyones said for days that if hillary did below 50 hat would be good for obama.

note , she didnt.

by Seymour Glass 2008-01-15 07:46PM | 0 recs
Actual delegate numbers?

Can anyone find any media source that has the actual Michigan delegate results out of tonights primary?

by msn1 2008-01-15 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Actual delegate numbers?

CNN says 0.

NYT says "to be determined."

by commissar 2008-01-15 06:58PM | 0 recs
MSNBC

also shows 0 delegates at stake in the Dem Mich. primary.

by commissar 2008-01-15 07:02PM | 0 recs
I don't want all 0s

There's got to be some media outlet out there willing to put together the real numbers!

by msn1 2008-01-15 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't want all 0s

Remember, DNC stripped Michigan of its delegates.

by Obama08 2008-01-15 07:20PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't want all 0s

yes I'm quite aware of that. But since they might end up being seated, and since the Michigan Democratic party still held a primary where delegates were still selected, the numbers should be somewhere.

by msn1 2008-01-15 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't want all 0s

I put the pledged delegate allocation together myself from the Michigan party website (Saginaw county outstanding, so the CD 4  and CD 5 numbers could shift slightly).

       Clinton  Uncommitted
CD  1     3          2
CD  2     3          2
CD  3     3          2
CD  4     3          2
CD  5     4          2
CD  6     3          2
CD  7     3          2
CD  8     4          2
CD  9     3          3
CD 10     3          2
CD 11     3          2
CD 12     3          3
CD 13     3          3
CD 14     3          4
CD 15     3          3
AL       16         12
PPLEO    10          7
PTOTAL   73         55

by Goobergunch 2008-01-15 09:56PM | 0 recs
Fantastic!

That's what I'm looking for. Great job. I'll have a post up on my blog later today.

by msn1 2008-01-16 02:00AM | 0 recs
This wasn't a Clinton victory, it was a DNC loss..

LEAP FROGGING GONE WILD --- Tonight's event in Michigan was not an election---it was an indictment of the current nominating process.   DNC chair Howard Dean and Michigan senator Carl Levin and New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner and the rest of the powers that be should be ashamed at what took place tonight...

     Shame on them all for strong-arming OBAMA and EDWARDS to have them take de facto "LOYALTY OATHS" to New Hampshire and Iowa and request their names be taken off the ballot in Michigan lest they suffer the WRATH of the FIEFDOM-PROTECTORS in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.  Shame on all of them for forcing the candidates to obide by a "no campaigning in the state" pledge.  How is it that CLINTON had her name on the ballot and KUCINICH and GRAVEL had their name on the ballot but EDWARDS and OBAMA did not?  It gives the appearance that CLINTON will not be bulldozed by the powerplay manueverings of New Hampshire and Iowa and that EDWARDS and OBAMA will.   I blame HOWARD DEAN for that faux pax and CARL LEVIN.  What kind of bullcrap is that?

     As I see it, the Democratic Party surrendered MICHIGAN tonight to the Republicans.   The Grand Old Party of Gerald Ford and Guy Vanderjagt got plenty of FREE MEDIA this week and it could prove pivotal in a tightly contested general election next November.   Now that would be the ultimate WAKEUP CALL and REALITY CHECK for the bickering Democratic powers that be if the Republicans won the general election by the narrowest of margins with MICHIGAN flipping to Republican RED from Democratic BLUE.  What is so sad is to see people living in "one state recession" misery disenfranchised --- to be rendered voiceless --- thereby amplifying the "POWER" and "MAGNITUDE" of Iowa and New Hampshire even more.  This madness has got to STOP.

     It is my understanding that the Democratic Party is seeking to PUNISH Florida for its LEAP-FROGGING behavior in a few weeks as well.

     The current nominating process is a sham and needs to be trashed after this cycle.  An under-reported FACT of NEW HAMPSHIRE protecting its "FIEFDOM" and first-in-the nation STATUS is that regional candidates from the Northeast are given an artificial boost --- from Tsongas to Dean to Kerry.  Candidates from non-northeast name recognition enter at a competitive disadvantage.  Factor in that northeast-based candidates are easily able to have volunteers make a short commute to New Hampshire to help their cause and it is plain to see that the deck is unfairly stacked.   If the preciousness of retail politicking is to be preserved (New Hampshire's well-known refrain gto protecting its status) it should be evenly spread --- have same-day voting at 2 or 3 other early primary states of equally small states on the same day...say New Hampshire and Nevada and South Carolina and Iowa all on the same day....Then, three weeks later, have three more contests such as Washington and Florida and Michigan...Spread it out so candidates from one region can't be given an artificial boost.

    Iowa and New Hampshire together represent 1 percent of the electorate and are 95% white.  The Age of 24/7 cable has primed the pump to transform these electoral events into 500 million dollars of tourism money into their state's economies.   It is a never-ending cycle.  As soon as this curtain closes on 2008 there will be a whole new cycle of politicians making plans to line up speaking engagements at Jefferson-Jackson dinners in 2008 and county fundraising dinners in Hawkeye and Granite State land and the milking of the CASH COW will begin again.  Stop the madness.

     

by Progressive Populist 2008-01-15 06:52PM | 0 recs
A bit of an exaggeration.
The Democrats have 11 months to undo the damage incurred upon themselves in Michigan, but if the Michigan primary results are any indicator, then Michigan will come into play only if Romney wins the nomination (Remember that Hillary got more votes than McCain did in a completely open primary). But even if Romney is the Republican nominee, I think Michigan will be an easy state to keep blue, provided the Democrats campaign there from now till November.
However the Democrats cannot make the same mistake with Florida.
Every Democratic candidate has to campaign in the up coming Florida primary or they can forget about securing that state for whoever wins the Democratic nomination.
But you're right, I think we should send Howard Dean and Carl Levin boxes of dog poop. Those two are great guys, but they really screwed up in Michigan, and it will cost the Democratic party valuable money.
by fetboy 2008-01-15 07:45PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

No one got anything. The turn-out was less then 10% of Democrats in the state.

by kristoph 2008-01-15 06:55PM | 0 recs
Exactly

I fully expect Barack Obama to carry African American voters, but who can tell anything from this primary.  We got virtually no turnout here where in the other states we've been getting record turnout.  And as we've seen in Iowa and NH - turnout is deciding this election.

by BDB 2008-01-15 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Hillary lost the youth vote also... she beat no one by 55%, way to go

by CardBoard 2008-01-15 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Bingo.

I think anyone with even a cursory knowledge of the census data would rather have 61% of the white vote than 68% of the black vote.

Here are the other important demographics:

Married Men (25% of the voters):
Clinton: 54%
Obama/Edwards: 41%

Single Men (18% of the voters):
Clinton: 44%
Obama/Edwards: 48%

Married Women (31% of the voters):
Clinton: 61%
Obama/Edwards: 35%

Single Women (26% of the voters):
Clinton: 60%
Obama/Edwards: 37%

The single women numbers (both as a percentage of turnout and margin for Clinton) are breathtaking. This echos what we saw in the New Hampshire primary voting.

Obama has a real demographic problem. His strongest group is single men, who are the least likely voters in the United States.

by hwc 2008-01-15 07:58PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

What I think you're missing is that if Hillary doesn't win among every single demographic group, it is proof that America hates her.

On a more serious note, are single men really the least likely voters among the general electorate, or are they just not that big in the Democratic Party?

by Steve M 2008-01-15 08:50PM | 0 recs
Both

Unmarried men are the least likely to vote, period.

In the 2004 Presidential elections, 50% of eligible unmarried men voted. 59% of unmarried women voted.

Married voting rates are much higher for both men and women.

This problem is particularly acute. White single men don't vote at very high rates, but single African American men really don't vote.

by hwc 2008-01-15 09:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Both

Oops. That should have read "problem is particulary acute for Obama".

by hwc 2008-01-15 09:32PM | 0 recs
A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

In 2004:

Married Men:
29% of voting age population
31% of voters

Married Women:
28% of voting age population
31% of voters

Single Men:
19% of voting age population
15% of voters

Single Women:
24% of voting age population
22% of voters

Single women are BY FAR the most likely to vote Democratic of all demographic groups. Married men are the most Republican.

by hwc 2008-01-15 09:45PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

From CNN's exit poll out of Michigan:

   Vote if All Candidates Were On Ballot

   Clinton 46
    Obama 35
    Edwards 12
    Kucinich 2

Maybe somebody's got it the other way around. People who were willing to go out and vote Uncommitted, were mostly Obama and Edwards supporters. Big surprise.

Actually in some caucus states, old-timers always vote "uncommitted" so later they can sell their favors in smoky rooms. Maybe they're being Bradley about that? What happened with Uncommitteds in previous MI primaries?

by 1950democrat 2008-01-15 09:14PM | 0 recs
Re: A Quick Number from Clinton's Win in Michigan

Chris Bowers frames these results as a win for Barack Obama, and I can't say that I think he's too far off.

Bowers was wrong, and so are you.  Anyone who extrapolates from last night's outcome does so at their peril.  

Obama won IA, lost NH, and wasn't on the ballot in MI.  You can't a) call that a win for Obama and b) extrapolate it to the rest of the country as Bowers did:

If he can trounce Clinton among African-Americans without even being on the ballot, it seems that Obama has solidified African-Americans behind him nationwide.

Rep. Conyers (D) is an Obama supporter and he pushed for the state's African-American community to vote "uncommitted."

Both Conyers and his wife pushed that option in radio and tv ads so last night's outcome isn't much of a surprise.  Josh Marshall is right about not reading too much into last night's results.

by KimPossible 2008-01-16 03:44AM | 0 recs

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