It's on!

That seems awful good for Edwards, being that close. We'd be in a whole different race if he'd won Iowa.

Wow! This looks good for Edwards also.

Give more support at:

John Edwards 08
http://edwards.com

No wonder that Clinton's teacher's union want to restrict at large caucuses in Las Vegas.

They know this is a tight race.

Has this firm done any polling before?

I realise Nevada polling has been too sparse for any meaningful trendlines to form, but I seem to recall Clinton has tended to get about 45% on average, with both Obama and Edward around 15-20%.

The growth in Obama's numbers doesn't surprise me as Clinton's national lead was never going to remain so large and union endorsements helped, but I'm not sure where the boost for Edwards could be coming from, as his national Iowa boost was only around 5%.

Mind you, I don't expect polling to be right on target for this race. It's just too much of an unknown.

I'm not buying it. We'll see on caucus day. I wouldn't take to heart these polls. Remember NH.

I'm proabably biased, but the Edwards' numbers make no sense to me. It will be interesting to see the specifics in this poll to see if it makes any sense.

So it's a three-way push.  Sounds about right to me.  Anyone that says they have a good read on this one is lying, in my opinion.  Should be exciting.  

I don't think the MSM realizes the support Edwards still has.  Though I have to admit I'm shocked at how close NV is I would have figured the Culinary Union would make the margin much wider for Obama.  It is interesting and a amall flicker of hope for this Edwards supporter.

TrumanDem

Truman's Conscience

Given the restrictions that Edwards faces on campaign spending, both state by state and overall spending, I am not sure that he has a problem yet with money.  Of course, he could violate the spending prohibitions and then pay a fine like many candidates have done in the past.  I think that the Edwards camp is being a lot more careful with budgeting than Clinton and Obama.  I don't know how much further he has to go before hitting his limit but I believe he has raised around $50 million counting the public financing he has borrowed against.  The overall spending limit is $56 million although I understand there are expenses that don't count against it.  My hope is that Edwards will stay in all the way and get at least 15% of the delegates overall.  For the fun of it I want to see a final tally of delegates where no candidate gets 50% before the convention.  

This has something to do with it?

Political Leaders, Campaign Officials, Celebrities in Nevada for Geared Up Edwards Campaign on Final Weekend Before Caucus
http://www.johnedwards.com/nevada/headli nes/20080111-final-weekend/

Also, the Steel Workers Union is in NV in force. They are working their butts off for Edwards in NV.

What if we had the same finish that we had in Iowa?  How would the Clinton campaign spin that?

It is possible that several issues may play out in NV.

Most of them involve the current back and forth between the Clinton and Obama camps. There could easily be a response both here and elsewhere
that Edwards would be the least divisive candidate.
recent Clinton
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan 11/campaigning-here-clinton-goes-over-c ulinarys-head

recent Obama
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan 14/obama-gloves-off

Remember the western states are traditionally conservitive, although that is rapidly changing due to the influx of new residents.

The economy is probably the biggest issue there now.
A little info on that.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/housin g/

Note..NV has not really been polled since early Dec.

http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php

This same polling firm had this race in November as:

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 20%
Edwards: 12%

So that's a change of Edwards +15, Obama +12 and Clinton -15.  That's a hell of big change.  Who knows if it's right, but the Clinton campaign certainly doesn't want the narrative out there that they've dropped 15 points in the past two months.

Tomorrow's debate will be key. If Edwards spikes and takes second-place, it'll be a huge story that'll provide key momentum going into South Carolina.

Like in New Hampshire, Hillary will have a significant unwavering group of support in Nevada. I think like in New Hampshire she can help close Nevada with a strong debate performance and strong last minute campaign rallies.

It should be added that all the unions that have backed Edwards, including the Carpenters, the Nevada CWA and the Steelworkers are still working the state. If Obama and Clinton go Gephardt/Dean on each other it might give Edwards an opening. One can hope at least.

I wonder if UNITE-HERE is having any regrets about their endorsement, with Edwards polling high as he did.

I don't like caucuses to begin with. It lacks privacy. And it lacks flexibility in time. And then you have to sit there and take orders and be hereded, like in an airport.

I am all for Unions and Union solidarity, but I think it would be difficult for a member to go against their Union when the leaders are standing there trying to get them to their side of the room.

In New York we vote by machines and the voting is from early in the morning to late at night. It is completely private. I even hate that my donations to candidates are listed on the internet. People in New York like their privacy.

If all 3 end up within 6 points top to bottom it is another draw for delegated

President

Nevada State Education Association

3511 East Harmon Avenue

Las Vegas, NV 89121

Dear President Warne:

As teachers in Nevada, and members of the Nevada State Education Association, we are deeply dismayed that our union is trying to stop our students' parents from caucusing on Saturday. We urge them in the strongest terms to drop this lawsuit immediately.

Many of our students are Hispanic Americans and come from low-income families. Their parents are construction workers, McDonald's employees, and other shift workers on the strip, who work around the clock, and won't have time to travel to their caucus locations on Saturday. That's why the state Democratic committee set up nine at-large precinct locations on the strip - to provide nearby caucus locations for Nevadans who otherwise wouldn't be able to caucus.

These at-large locations were approved back in March of 2007, and no one raised any concerns about them for nearly a year. But now, our union is filing a lawsuit making the baseless charge that these at-large caucus locations are discriminatory, when the fact is they were set up to make sure as many Nevadans could caucus as possible.

This lawsuit is all about politics. It's widely known that many of our union's top officials support Senator Clinton and now that the Culinary Workers Union has endorsed Senator Obama, they're using our union to stop Nevadans from caucusing for Senator Obama.

We never thought our union and Senator Clinton would put politics ahead of what's right for our students, but that's exactly what they're doing. As teachers, and proud Democrats, we hope they will drop this undemocratic lawsuit and help all Nevadans caucus, no matter which candidate they support.

Sincerely,

Tamara Anderson, Elementary School Counselor

Monica Baldwin, 3rd grade teacher

Jodi Brant, Government teacher for 12th graders

Mari Calderon, Kindergarten teacher

Jessica Cohn, 3rd grade teacher

Ketica Guter, 3rd grade teacher

Sarah Irby, Kindergarten teacher

Padmini Jambulapati, 7th and 8th grade teacher

Tracy Kamhi, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade teacher

Jennifer Kehs, 4th grade teacher

Clara Munk, Primary Reading teacher

Matthew O'Keefe, 4th grade teacher

Frances Rabbitt, Special Education teacher

Chantae Readye, 5th grade teacher

Jessica Tolliver, 1st grade teacher

Obama is skanky? What cant we have a civil discussion, why does it have to dissolve into THIS?

People who post things like "skanky" about Democrats is not a Democrat, and never was. If they want to post here, thats OK and now we know why, to troll and bring up fights, always remeber, this is a public forum and it attracts a lot of RWNJ's dont be pulled into a slaging match.

That poster is not representative of the Democratic Party in any way, nor any progressive either.

EDWARDS CAMP: STILL IN THE HUNT
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/01/14/577230.aspx

Edwards camp: Still in the hunt
Posted: Monday, January 14, 2008 2:41 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2008, Edwards

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
PAWLEYS ISLAND, SC -- The Edwards campaign doesn't believe this race is over just yet.

Edwards' campaign manager, former Michigan Rep. David Bonior (D), senior advisers Joe Trippi and Jonathan Prince, and communication director Chris Kofinis emphasized that the race for the Democratic nomination still involves three candidates. They followed up with a poll from the Reno Gazette-Journal that shows Edwards polling competitively in Nevada, trailing Obama by five points and Clinton by just three. Bonior said that Edwards has 75 new staffers on the ground in Nevada brought in from the earlier caucus state of Iowa.

"What I know is that we're very well-organized," Edwards told reporters covering his town hall here in South Carolina. "We've got people there who know what they're doing. They moved there from Iowa, and I think most importantly my message of standing up for the middle class against entrenched moneyed interests and fighting for the middle class is one that'll work. It'll work in Nevada, and I think a lot of Nevada caucus-goers haven't quite heard it yet, and I think when they hear it -- and they will tomorrow night -- we stand a good chance."

Also on the call, Bonior announced Edwards' America Rising Coast-to-Coast tour with stops later this week in four major Feb. 5 primary states: California, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Missouri.

Meanwhile, the candidate himself is finishing up a tour of his home state of South Carolina. Edwards came directly to South Carolina after Tuesday's New Hampshire primary and will be in Nevada tomorrow, where he has a town hall at noon in Las Vegas and will participate in MSNBC's debate that evening.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/01/14/577230.aspx

My sense is it's a bad poll. Anything that strays too far from the long term status of the race is a bad Democratic poll in '08, IMO.

I'm a Nevadan for 20+ years and it's a fairly easy state to forecast. In '06 there were blatantly poor polls at times, the ones indicating Jack Carter was closer to John Ensign than Dina Titus to Jim Gibbons. Anyone who knew a damn thing about Nevada politics realized the gov race would be tight and the senate race was never in play, but many polls tried to pretend otherwise. I was ripped on a few sites for emphasizing the occasional polls showing Carter close were nonsense, but it turned out to be a 14 point race, the logical margin.

Obviously a caucus is a different animal. I'm not as certain as '06 but my instinct is Clinton leads narrowly and Edwards is well back in third.