Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot Lead

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 08:52:18 AM EST

The generic presidential ballot isn't the most important thing in the world -- we live in a presidential rather than parliamentary system, so we vote for candidates rather than just parties -- but it can be instructive in telling us what the political environment looks like. So without further ado, the latest CBS News/New York Times poll (.pdf):

If the November 2008 election for President were being held today, would you probably vote for the Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?
Republican Democratic
1/12/08 32 50
12/9/07 31 48
10/16/07 (CBS) 33 48
9/9/07 32 48
7/17/07 32 47
6/28/07 (CBS) 28 55
5/23/07 33 49
3/11/07 31 51

The most recent spread -- 50 percent to 32 percent in favor of the Democrats -- is remarkable, not only in its size but also in its durability. For nearly a year, the American public has favored a Democrat for the presidency over a Republican by a margin of between 15 and 27 points, with an average lead for the Democrats of 18 points and a median lead for the Democrats of 16.5 points. With numbers like these, it's no wonder that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead three of the four leading Republican presidential candidates by double digit margins in head-to-head polling nationally.

Now these numbers are decidedly not license to slack off. Far from it. Yet they do paint a good picture of what the opportunities are in 2008 to bring real change and a significant swing towards the Democratic Party. What's more, they also show that the American public still can't get excited by the GOP (and perhaps never will this cycle).

Tags: 2008 (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Sort by

permalink

but...

Unfortunately, we all know how well the Democrats are at losing presidential elections. I expect it will be nail-biter at the very end.

by d 2008-01-14 08:57AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: but...

I agree. If it's Hillary/McCain, it's going to go down to the wire with a Hillary victory....

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-01-14 09:02AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: but...

The poll should have distinguished between Republicans, Democrats, and Democrats In Name Only (DINOs). On the basis of this classification, the race is actually tied nationally, giving McCain an equal chance of taking the presidency.

The DINO here of course is Hillary.

by shergald 2008-01-14 09:31AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: but...

Who do you think you're convincing or what do you think you're contributing with comments like that? Give it a rest... not every thread needs to be a primary fight.

by frankies 2008-01-14 10:54AM | 0 recs

permalink

Best analogy:

Obama = the generic numbers

Hillary = real numbers

Nominating Hillary ensures a squeaker. Whereas, Obama may - may - make for a landslide.

by jgarcia 2008-01-14 09:02AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Best analogy:

classy as ever

by the mollusk 2008-01-14 09:36AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Best analogy:

yeah, he's forcing that smarmy prick Bill Clinton into attacking him. Oh, and he's also putting words into the mouth of that greedy corporate closeted Republican Bob Johnson?

Repeat after me: YOU ARE A HILLBOT.

by jgarcia 2008-01-14 09:57AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Best analogy:

YOU ARE A HILLBOT.

by frankies 2008-01-14 10:56AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic

The Hillary vs Obama debate is absurd here. Look at the latest round of CNN head-to-heads. If this is the generic ballot advantage, then why do ALL of the Dem candidates underperform their generic numbers?

by NJIndependent 2008-01-14 09:12AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic

Specific match-ups will almost alway underperform generics. See also, "Yeah, I'm voting Democratic but not for him/her!!!"

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-14 10:46AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot

U.S. to Republicans: "We're just not that into you."

by Oregonian 2008-01-14 09:57AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot

Way too early for these polls, especially when we have the former President running around calling Democratic opposition to the war of such people like Barbara Boxer and Ted Kennedy a "fairy tale". Does it really serve the purpose of the General Election to highlight that Democratic Senators funded the War, instead of highlighting how they often had to in order to get other relief spending passed. If you look at the 2006 vote, yes there was 65.7 billion set aside for the War and the troops, but there was also $28.9 billion for hurricane relief, including grants to states to build and repair housing, and $4 billion for levees and flood control projects in Louisiana. Toward what end does Mr. Clinton's portrayal of Obama's opposition as the War as fake because of his 2006 vote help our chances in the General Election. If he gave a damn about the party would it be too much for him to instead point out the "little-noticed provision added by Sens. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Tom Coburn, R-Okla., on the floor would block the government from entering into no-bid contracts in excess of $500,000. The provision came on the heels of numerous reports of bloated Katrina-related contracts.

"We in Congress just keep trusting FEMA to enter into competitive contracts even though there's no evidence that it has any intention of doing so," Obama said." (USA Today)

Or just stay quiet. Give it a few months and the win at all cost mentality of the former President will start showing up in the polls.

by Piuma 2008-01-14 10:49AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot

ALL of the presidential candidates have forsaken the party until further notice. They are fighting to win the nomination and until that is decided they will all be willing to throw the party under the bus. It takes a truly massive ego to run for President and any serious contendor for that office will never be as good for their party as they should be.

by JDF 2008-01-14 11:58AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot

Does this help us when "unknown Democrat" vs. "unknown Republican" becomes, say, Clinton vs. McCain?

by KTinOhio 2008-01-14 10:51AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot

rcp avg: McCain has a 5.4% EDGE OVER cLINTON AND A .04% edge over Obama.

This is going to be a tough fight and we will need a very united democratic party to win.

Forget these generic polls. McCain will be the nominee and it will be a tough, tough, election.

by BDM 2008-01-14 11:07AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot

I'm not willing to stipulate McCain's coronation just yet. If he loses in Michigan and South Carolina, the dynamic may change once again. Remember when Giuliani was invincible? How about Romney in Iowa and New Hamster? Or when Fred Thompson was going to be the Great White Hope? There's a lot of cards still to come from the "Chance" deck.

by InigoMontoya 2008-01-14 07:52PM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Dems Hold Massive Generic Presidential Ballot

We should not pay much attention to this, since with actual names attached, the Democrats barely win over McCain.

by Bob H 2008-01-14 11:26AM | 0 recs