Florida now Matters to Obama
by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 11:54:31 AM EST
Out of Florida, The Buzz picked up on a quote by an Obama strategist that tipped off the plan for Obama to compete in the upcoming primary of Florida:
I guess the best way to view this is not through the lens of delegates, but akin to the way that nomination fights were held before the transition in the 1970's when candidates for the nomination would compete in every state. Previously, they would pick and choose states in which they would be on the ballot, and only when competing candidates were both on the ballot, was it viewed as a significant matter. In the end, it's the delegates that matter, which is where MI comes in with a much bigger role, but it's role is limited for now, with Clinton getting the win in lieu of the others passing.
The dynamics have changed since I first wrote about Michigan mattering. It doesn't matter to Obama now, since he already lost and won't run be running the table; and it doesn't matter much to Clinton now, since shes not in desperate need of a win and making the delegate argument. It's now, winless but needing a win, Edwards that lost the most from pulling out of Michigan-- a state that would have been most favorable to him than any of the other early states.
But back to Florida, on the Republican side, it's going to be a huge battle, probably only second to the Texas primary, coming after February 5th, on March 4th. And now that the Obama strategy is also looking at the impact of Florida, it will play just as large a role for the Democrats, second only to California on Feb 5th.
Looking past Feb 5th for the Democrats, toward the rest of the month:
February 9 Louisiana primary Washington caucus Nebraska caucus February 10 Maine caucus February 12 District of Columbia primary Maryland primary Virginia primary February 19 Hawaii caucus Wisconsin primaryAnd that's it, until March 4th, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont hold their primaries. On March 11th, Mississippi holds it's primary, And then another 6 weeks passes till the next state, Pennsylvania, holds its primary.
It certainly does look, at this point, like there is going to be a second stage of the campaign, after Feb 5th, when 22 states hold their Democratic Party contest. I'm looking forward to the mid-Atlantic focus on Feb 12th, we'll see quite a bit of a battle in Virginia.
Tags: 2008 election (all tags)
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