Does anyone know how much the union endorsements really mean in terms of votes? Didn't Edwards get a lot of them in Iowa? Last poll I saw in NV had Obama down 20pts. That's a lot to overcome but not insurmountable. I think SC will vote for Obama but it might be closer after Hillarys surprise win in NH.

I think when the expectations are raised so high that you can't see over the bar, that's a problem.  And if too many people are raising the expectations for him, he can't make his movement bigger and have that be a deciding factor for voters.  

And, that's why a part of me feels that the Obama camp might have felt a bit relieved to lose in NH--it took a little pressure off.  It's not like he lost by a huge margin or anything like that, but it was still close.  

IMO, I think Obama's campaign has had the necessity of controlling expectations thrust upon them enough after NH to do it effectively in Nevada. Plouffe's memo/statement yesterday speaks to this, focusing most of his discussion on the Feb. 5th contests, which will likely be the true deciding moment of the primaries, regardless of what those inside the Beltway may posit.

I know a little bit about the politics in the state. Clinton mainly because of the Yucca mountain thing is something of a heroine in NV which plays right to her message of actions not talk. It's a sqirrelly system not unlike IA which could play to Obama's advantage if he can get a massive youth turnout but somehow the place doesn't feel like IA. Clinton has loads of union endorsements in IA and a machine she's been building for years. There is not going to be IA type intensity where folks are being called ten times a night for weeks. It's basically a week of some campaign visits, some ads and some rallies. That's it. The electorate is around 40,000 let's suppose it gets doubled which I doubt, and do we really think it's going to have much of an impact other than as bragging rights. I rather think the same applies to Clinton actually who has enough mo from NH to carry her to FL after winning MI. Forget the seating arguments both these contests are going to get media coverage particularly Florida. When Clinton emerges from her cocoon tomorrow morning in NV look for a completely retooled and fresh looking campaign style. Softer, answering questions which she can do standing on her head, ads about Yucca, and reaching out to hispanics.      

that getting both the wfc unions' support raises expectations for obama, but i'd rather have them.  you have to believe in your plan...

the fastest growing in the nation. Almost 90% of the population is below retirement age. Obama has a very good shot.

...in order to win the nomination you have to participate in the primaries and caucuses.  You people are overanalyzing this whole thing.

The idea of not competing and then somehow miraculously winning by lowering expectations is just ridiculous.

If Clinton and Obama want to be serious candidates, they need to compete in every legitimate primary and caucus.  I thought they were in this to win, not just in this to win only what states they think they have already won.

How can he possibly lose Nevada now?

I agree that the raised expectations in Nevada could really hurt Obama.  That being said, I'd rather have the endorsements and a shot to win.  A victory here would go a long way to puting his campaign back on track going into SC.  I admit, however, that at this point a loss would hurt Obama more than it would Clinton.  

This is why the Establishment media pretends to expect O'Bama to win Nevada.

In reality, he'll be lucky to beat Edwards. To actually place within five points of Clinton would represent the biggest comeback of the century. Or at least, since the last huge, huge comeback.

be coming from the same ass that the Iowa and NH expectations were pulled from?

If so, I don't really see how being more than, less than or or equal to a randomly generated number would be all that significant.

Mark Shields, commentator on the News Hour, says the Culinary Workers has the best political organization in the state.  

I would guess that polling in NV will not be a good predictor.  Obviously there is the whole NH hanging over us, but as Todd has pointed out (and others in the media), there is a pretty good picture of what 'went wrong' or what was missed in the NH.

However, as we all have also heard, polling in Iowa is difficult because of the caucus structure.  Yes, there was an accurate Iowa poll, but that has just emerged last cycle and this cycle.

I still think, in general, caucuses are harder to poll because of the structure, time, and strategy needed.  I think that is made even more tricky in a state like NV where the likely participant models are just pure guess work.  This all means that a strong organization is key and the Union endorsements will no doubt help, in addition to Obama's whole Iowa team (IA State Director and IA Field Director) going into Nevada for him.

It will be hard to predict...

Although the union is coy about how many of its members are registered to vote, the endorsement is expected to give Obama at least 10,000 supporters in the caucus, in a contest whose turnout estimates have ranged from 28,000 to 100,000.

In a caucus, supporters of a candidate literally stand together on one side of the room, demonstrating to everyone who is supporting whom. Many Strip shift workers, Culinary workers, will be voting at so-called "at-large" caucus sites on the Strip. This means Culinary members, for whom unity is a creed, will be able to enforce discipline. Clinton can no longer expect to win many delegates at those at-large sites.

The infusion of locked-down voters is only the most obvious benefit, however.

The caucus process requires participants to show up at 11:30 on the appointed morning and at the correct precinct location, which means organizations must identify supporters and ensure they show up. The Culinary is known as the most politically active and organized union in the state and one of the most active in the country. Political observers in Nevada have long assumed the union would provide the kind of organization that could deliver victory.

The Obama campaign, which has been working to win Latino voters with a sophisticated effort to woo them in their workplaces, can now do so with Culinary support and encouragement. A significant though ultimately unknown portion of Culinary membership is Latino, and the endorsement could have a prairie fire effect, spreading from workplaces to Latino homes and communities.

Finally, Culinary leadership, including Secretary-Treasurer D. Taylor and political director Pilar Weiss, are two of the most politically savvy - and feared - players in Nevada Democratic politics. State legislators and others are wary of crossing them.

In 2006, for example, the Culinary placed Lynette Boggs, then a Clark County commissioner the union opposed, under surveillance to prove she was not living in her district. Her opponent, with the help of Culinary volunteers walking the district, beat Boggs in a landslide.

Taylor is revered by his membership for negotiating impressive wage and benefit gains in 2002 and again last year. His mild manner disappears when he takes the stage in front of the members, when he becomes a passionate, red-faced advocate for labor and progressive values.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/storie s/sun/2008/jan/10/566641855.html

Don't forget that Edwards and Clinton have union support too. I am betting that if you add up all the members who endorsed Clinton and Edwards they equal in membership. I know that the Carpenters and Steelworkers equal around 20,000 members. I am not sure how much presence the other unions who endorsed Edwards like the Miners have in Nevada. Also, I am not sure the exact numbers for Clinton with the unions that endorsed her. So Obama, Clinton and Edwards are tied with union support.

As you note, the Obama amd Clinton camps are gearing up for a showdown in the Nevada caucuses on January 19th with hundreds of supporters coming to Nevada to spread the word for the candidates.

Those who worked in Iowa before coming here just have to remember that in Nevada it is opposing Yucca mountain and not supporting ethanol.

homer   www.altara.blogspot.com

I see nothing but McCain and Clinton signs in Beaufort. And of course some handwritten Ron Paul signs.

As for Nevada, where does the hispanic vote go? BTW: is Whouley in Nv? The way the media is talking about him, you would think he could get HRC back to square one even factoring in the Culinary and Kerry endorsment.

Lastly, I wonder with Obama getting into an endorsment tour, if that turns folks off? Will all of the non-endorsment groups resent him? I doubt that but it didn't help Gore(he was down big early) or Dean.