Giuliani's (Un-) Electability
by Todd Beeton, Sun Sep 30, 2007 at 12:39:41 PM EDT
The stronger Hillary Clinton appears, the more effective Rudy Giuliani believes this case for his candidacy becomes:
"I'm the only Republican candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton."
And certainly Giuliani's unlikely strength among constituencies not typically inclined to support a northeast pro-choice, pro-gun Republican would seem to bear out the effectiveness of this strategy. As GOP strategist Mike Murphy says:
"Nobody asks if you're pro-choice or pro-life if you're in a Hillary fight."
Take the results of the latest Gallup Poll, via TPM:
* Rudy leads among conservative Republicans with 30%. Thompson is in second with 23%, John McCain in third with 15%, and Mitt Romney is in forth with 10%.* Rudy leads among Republican voters who attend church weekly with 27%. Thompson is in second with 24%; McCain has 17%; and Romney has 9%. Rudy also leads among Republicans who attend church monthly. Not surprisingly, the catholic Rudy is very dominant among Catholic voters, but he's also leading among Protestants, too.
* Rudy is tied with Thompson among southern Republicans at 28%. McCain has 12% and Romney has 6%.
But not everyone thinks he's out of the woods with these voters. Former GOP mayor of Los Angeles Richard Riordan said this during what was purportedly an endorsement of Giuliani:
He said Giuliani was "too liberal" to appeal to the party's conservative base."On the primary, you get this solid, super-right-wing group of people who are going to have litmus tests on everything from gun control to abortion to other things," Riordan observed. "He's going to be hurt there."
Perhaps most disconcerting for Giuliani, though, is the potential unintended consequence of the nomination of the so-called most electable candidate: a primary challenge from the right. From Salon via TPM:
A powerful group of conservative Christian leaders decided Saturday at a private meeting in Salt Lake City to consider supporting a third-party candidate for president if a pro-choice nominee like Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination. [...]"The conclusion was that if there is a pro-abortion nominee they will consider working with a third party," said the person, who spoke to Salon on the condition of anonymity. The private meeting was not a part of the official CNP schedule, which is itself a closely held secret. "Dobson came in just for this meeting," the person said.
Which would, of course, in the end make him not electable at all. Funny how things work out.
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani (all tags)
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