Despite the fact that Democrat Larry Grant was outspent by more than a 2-to-1 margin when expenditures by candidates and party committees are included in a district, Idaho 1, that leans significantly towards the Republicans (PVI R+19), Grant only narrowly lost to Republican Bill Sali, 50 percent to 45 percent. In a rematch race this cycle between the freshman Sali and Grant, the political prognosticators seem to be uninterested, with neither The Rothenberg Political Report nor The Cook Political Report (.pdf) rating the contest as either competitive or potentially competitive. But new polling out of the Grant campaign may have the campaign watchers thinking twice. Aaron Blake has the details for The Hill.

Rep. Bill Sali's (R) approval rating is below 30 percent, and his disapproval mark is 46 percent, according to a poll released Monday by one of his opponents, 2006 Democratic nominee Larry Grant.

The poll showed just 29 percent of respondents approved of Sali. Grant was close behind at 28 percent but had a much lower unfavorable rating of 13 percent.

There's no doubt that this is a difficult district for the Democrats to win. The fact that Grant was not able to win this seat even in the Democratic landslide of 2006 is a testament to this fact.

But, amazingly, for as good as 2006 was for Democrats, 2008 could actually be better. Both Democratic polling and non-partisan polling indicate that the electorate is still significantly more disposed to vote Democratic than Republican in Congressional races this cycle. What's more, Democratic party committees have nearly twice the cash-on-hand as do GOP committees, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has close to 10 times the cash-on-hand that the National Republican Congressional Committee now holds, indicating that the Democrats could have significantly more room to help a Larry Grant than Republicans could to help a Bill Sali.

So given this potential environment, the fact that Sali is so remarkably unpopular -- which is unsurprising due to his extremely far right stances which even put him outside of the mainstream of this conservative district -- Grant really may have a shot at winning.