Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton The Nomination?

On Wednesday, the Republican-controlled Michigan state senate passed a bill that would move their primary forward to January 15. Interestingly, despite the fact that the move seems to have been instigated by Michigan Democratic senator Carl Levin, and Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm has said she would sign the bill if it reaches her desk, the measure was unanimously opposed by senate Democrats and in fact, Congressional Quarterly reports

The fact that the Michigan bill also must pass the Democratic-controlled state House, however, lends some serious doubt about its prospects for enactment. The effort is largely a venture of the state's Republicans: The state Democratic Party has scheduled a separate caucus for Feb. 9 to comply with Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules. State Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer opposes the proposed shift to Jan. 15 and called the state Senate's action "unfortunate."

Why would Michigan Republicans be gunning for a Jan. 15 primary as opposed to a February caucus? Well, maybe it's all the Karl Rove reverse psychology this week but this post from NYT Caucus blog jumped out at me:

On the Democratic side, those behind Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is running ahead in the polls in Michigan, want a primary. They think a wide-open process would encourage first-time voters, including the women and minorities who support Mrs. Clinton, to come out and vote for her. Plus, Mrs. Clinton will have plenty of money to run as many ads on television as she wants.

Those backing former Senator John Edwards prefer a caucus. Why? Mr. Edwards's campaign manager is David Bonior, the former Michigan Congressmen, who has strong ties to organized labor. The unions can be highly influential in a caucus, which depends largely on ground organization. They would have much more control over a caucus, which is too complicated and time-consuming for the average person to attend.

It certainly plays nicely into the "Edwards is Karl Rove's worst nightmare" meme.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Michigan primary (all tags)

Comments

39 Comments

Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

Wouldn't that be a smart move for them, considering Hillary's negatives?!

http://OsiSpeaks.com or http://OsiSpeaks.org

by KYJurisDoctor 2007-08-23 01:33PM | 0 recs
The old ways of Washington

Sounds like Edwards is in favor of the old corrupt ways of Washington where special interest insiders control elections instead of opening up the process to the people to decide.

by hwc 2007-08-23 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

You are now just making shit up.

by bruh21 2007-08-23 01:55PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

No. Not making things up. Edwards wants a caucus because as few as 2000 people show up and the process is completely controlled by the special interests in the form of the UAW. The old insider ways of Washington.

Clinton wants a primary where all of the hard working people of Michigan have the opportunity to stand up against the special interest insiders and make their voices heard by casting ballots.

Are you against free and open elections in Michigan? To give power to the people instead of special interests and their lobbyists? John Edwards is against giving power to the people in Michigan. Clinton is for giving power to the people.

by hwc 2007-08-23 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

Good God.  You produce some of the lamest spin I've ever seen on this site.

by Steve M 2007-08-23 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

Those dastardly labor unions! If only the Clinton campaign had someone in their employ who had experience busting them.

by Junior Bug 2007-08-23 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

Special interest insiders like the labor unions can have a seat at the table, but they shouldn't have the whole table.

Did I get that right?

by hwc 2007-08-23 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

You got to be fucking kidding me? Are you sure you want to be a Democrat?

by bruh21 2007-08-23 03:16PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

Are you feeling cognitive dissonance right now?

by Junior Bug 2007-08-23 03:50PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

No. I'm throwing Edwards' and Obama's hypocrisy back at them. How can Edwards be for beating the special interests and then favor a closed caucus system that is controlled by the union special interests. He should be in favor of all the little people in Michigan taking back their government from the special interests and having the right to vote in a primary.

Wait, you don't think that the UAW controlled caucuses would help Edwards? He's not doing this out of self-interest, is he?

by hwc 2007-08-23 03:56PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

Wait, you don't think that the UAW controlled caucuses would help Edwards? He's not doing this out of self-interest, is he?

Doing what?

by Junior Bug 2007-08-23 04:56PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

The Edwards camp is pushing for caucuses. The Clinton camp is pushing for free, open primary election so the people can express their will.

That's what the skirmish in Michigan is all about.

by hwc 2007-08-23 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

I'm not looking at it as camps acting as appendages of the candidates.  Are you saying Granholm, Levin and Michigan Republicans are in Clinton's camp?

by Junior Bug 2007-08-23 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

Oh, and I think Michigan Democrats are acting on behalf of Michigan unions.

by Junior Bug 2007-08-23 07:02PM | 0 recs
The Rumble in the Jungle

In the red corner: Hillary Clinton, managed by union-busting PR consultant Mark Penn, and funded by big donations from corporate America.  

In the blue corner: John Edwards, managed by labor's man in the House for so long, David Bonior, and cheered on by working people across the country.  

You know who I'm rooting for.  

by Neil the Ethical Werewolf 2007-08-23 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: The old ways of Washington

I think you have a point in that a caucus-goer is inherently much more susceptible to manipulation and coercion than a primary. In a caucus, you always try to get the most intense and intimidating precinct captain you can find to round up undecided votes, make sure people don't leave your side, etc. For these reasons, I favor a secret ballot primary.

That being said, your logic is pretty off. Clinton, Edwards, Obama, and all the other candidates all have the same opportunity to turn out their respective voters. Also, I think Clinton isn't at as much of a disadvantage as you may think. If she invests time and resources into the Michigan caucus, she actually has a good chance of gaming the system in a way Edwards cannot. She can play her "inevitability" card with local party organizations and activists, and try to force them onto the winning bandwagon. If she has the party organization in her corner, she could likely be just as manipulative as Edwards if he gets the UAW endorsement.

Yeah, caucuses are undemocratic and frankly outrageous, but everyone's playing by the same (relative lack of) rules.

by Max Fletcher 2007-08-23 05:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

Oh for goodness sakes.  Your crazy theory gives Michigan Republicans credit for far more intelligence than any of them possess.

Seriously, the idea that everything is a secret Rovian plot has become an embarrassing cliche at this point.

by Steve M 2007-08-23 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

This is weird , a conspiracy theorist as a front pager.

Your post was frankly incoherent and you all of a sudden come to a ridiculous conclusion based on nothing.

This front page diaries are becoming funnier.

Someone insinuated on the front page that a presidential candidate dropped out of the presidential race because of the Daily show and the fear to face Jon Stewart.

Now why the hell will anyone be scared to go on the daily show , all he throws out is softballs and to can your presidential race based on that is ridiculous.

by lori 2007-08-23 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

holy crap, I agree with lori. Alert the press.

by alipi 2007-08-23 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

C'mon Alipi , we agree on a lot of things , you just don't like to admit it . Ha.

by lori 2007-08-23 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

It's a conspiracy to suggest politics is political? This was, like everything else politicians do, by design.  Maybe it was because Levin and the state Republicans want Hillary, or maybe they all just want their Valentine's Day calendar free, but there's deliberate calculation behind it.

by Junior Bug 2007-08-23 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

Gee, but you're forgetting that a lot of Republicans don't exist within the realm of logic and normal politics at play. Any time you discount them for what seems like an obviously, purely political move and think its innocent...chances are you're wrong.

by apolitik 2007-08-23 08:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

I think you are pretty right on in terms of the caucus and primary deliberations going on in MI right now; it certainly makes sense given the statements that Mark Brewer has been making.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-08-23 01:45PM | 0 recs
Clinton Beats Entire GOP Field In Head To Head

Given the fact that, in Michigan, Clinton beats Giulini by 9, Romney by 10, Thompson by 13, and McCain by 13, I doubt it!

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/michigan_clinton_leads_gop_h opefuls_by_9_13_points

by BigBoyBlue 2007-08-23 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Beats Entire GOP Field In Head To Head

They are looking for their best chances. Not their definite win. All of this conversation is about picking the betting odds of who they think they have the best chance to take out.

by bruh21 2007-08-23 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton


It's just stupid that Democrats are falling to the Republican machine.

Rove coming out against Clinton was just a ploy to have Democrats attack each other.

Clinton is already leading the nomination. If this is what the Republicans want, it's on the way. Anybody asked why the hell is it necessary for Rove and the right-wing nuts to go to the media and point out that Hillary cannot win a general election?

If you look at thee right, they may not be decided on who their nominee is but there is really not a lot of fighting among themselves.

But hell, look at the Democrats, the Clinton camp is always on the offensive against Obama's and Edwards' while the Obama fanatics discredits any poll showing Clinton in the lead.

by dailyroad 2007-08-23 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re:

I think the people in Michigan prefer a primary.   That should be the overriding factor, not what Bonior wants or what Penn wants.   In a primary many, many people can attend.  A caucus is very hard to attend.  Why make it hard for people to cast a vote?  It makes no sense.  Make it easy, the populace wins.   Clinton is right on this one, Edwards wrong.  Get a primary going.  May the best man/woman win with as many people voting.  

As for "motives":   This was first proposed by Carl Levin, a Democrat.  I think the "Rove" connection is a major stretch.  I agree with Lori that it is becoming comical to attribute everything to the beaten-up, defeated, retired Rove as if he is some sort of uber-God.   He has no bearing on any of this.  Republicans have their own reasons to move primaries.  I know for a fact that CLINTON had nothing to do with the Florida legislature moving its date up to Jan. 29.  It was merely the desire to make a difference, to be part of the process, which is what Michigan has in mind as well.  

No, they don't WANT for Clinton to celebrate a rousing victory in every state of the union to be thus so WEAK as to fall easy prey to the gargantuan superb Republican candidates.   The whole idea itself is illogical.  Clinton would come out of a rousing nomination victory that sees her virtually sweep the entire country very strong, very hard to beat for the GOP, very popular (because of the feat.)

    The only thing that makes sense for the GOP to hope for is for a fractured nomination process that is in doubt, with none of our candidates winning enough delegates to look strong, all top-tier candidates showing weaknesses in certain geographical areas and demographics, a contested election that is not decided until the convention.   That way they would battle a nominee who comes out of the process weakened.   A super-strong Clinton with virtually all delegates going to her but a few would be the GOP's nightmare to go up against, especially since none of their candidates are in any way dominant figures or can claim strong status.    

by georgep 2007-08-23 03:26PM | 0 recs
Re:

I spoke to my dad about this the other night.  He says Levin has been very outspoken about the need for Michigan to hold its primary earlier, making the case that it's an important general election state that is extremely representative of Democratic Party constituencies, and of course it would bring money and attention to Michigan.

I really find it hard to believe there's anything more sinister than this at work, nor do I believe Carl Levin is secretly doing Rove's bidding.

by Steve M 2007-08-23 04:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

I am also unsure of all these "conspiracy theories" about the state-level Michigan Republicans banding together to try to serve Karl Rove's supposed bidding. Even if this were all part of Rove's master plan to meddle in the 2008 election, he should be careful what he wishes for lest he wants a Democratic candidate who can "win in a bar fight" with Republicans, as someone once observed (appropriately, IMHO) on this site.

I am unsympathetic to the idea of a caucus and consider myself a pretty faithful progressive. Special interests are a fact of not just politics but life. James Madison essentially asserts this in Federalist No. 10:

"The latent causes of faction are thus sown in the nature of man; and we see them every where brought into different degrees of activity, according to the different circumstances of civil society."

But when these special interests being to subvert the basic principle of voting, which is the only real input the people have in our republic, my patience begins to evaporate very quickly. Those who've written here before me in favor of a primary have said most of what there is to say, so I won't repeat them.

I think most of us are missing the mark. The real question should be: should the states have to follow the DNC's rules as to when they are able to hold their primary? Let's debate that instead of Karl Rove and primary v. caucus (both of which are borderline absurd debates anyway).

by fgvanzee 2007-08-23 04:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

please give me a break- who do you support? then i will believe that this is unmotivated by candidate choice.

by bruh21 2007-08-23 04:57PM | 0 recs
Everyone is nuts - including us

The DNC rules committee, which is as insider as you can get, is talking about sanctioning Michigan if it goes before Feb. 1.  So, what does that mean?  Probably nothing other than the committee wants to enforce the rules. I think we all tend to read too much into all the tea leaves.  The Michigan Republicans probably want a primnary because they want to get as many people out to vote as possible to do party building. The Democrats probably want a caucus because they have always done it that way.  Not everything is a conspiracy to benefit a candidate!  

by nascardem 2007-08-23 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Everyone is nuts - including us

....now you're just making sh*t up.

by apolitik 2007-08-23 08:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans

Do you have any doubts? Hillary's their girl! That's why they want her as the candidate....so they can keep the white house.

by AnthonyMason2k6 2007-08-23 06:47PM | 0 recs
The MI Dem Caucus was actually

going to be MORE open than a primary would be-- as they were planning for INTERNET VOTING.

In 2004, anyone willing to declare themselves a Democrat was able to participate in the caucus.  I voted by mail, myself.

Anything allowing internet voting would HAVE to be considered "more open" than the usual primary election with NO internet voting, IMHO.

by John Poet 2007-08-23 07:15PM | 0 recs
Truth and Iowa Hate

There was a lot of angry discussion on this topic over at Kos today. Kos was in favor of the michigan move, which always seemed to me like a sure way for Hillary to cinch the nomination and NOTHING else.

Thank you Todd for being seemingly the only person in the blogosphere not so blinded by Iowa hate that they can't see past what's obviously going on here.

by apolitik 2007-08-23 08:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Truth and Iowa Hate

by blogosphere I meant, mainpage posters on the big blogs ;)

by apolitik 2007-08-23 08:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton
Those backing former Senator John Edwards prefer a caucus. Why? Mr. Edwards's campaign manager is David Bonior, the former Michigan Congressmen, who has strong ties to organized labor. The unions can be highly influential in a caucus, which depends largely on ground organization. They would have much more control over a caucus, which is too complicated and time-consuming for the average person to attend.

For those that don't know, Michigan's caucus as it is for this cycle (and as it was for the 2004 cycle) is simply an election held by the party instead of an election held by the state. This is not an Iowa style caucus. You come in. You vote. You leave.

It seems that before CQPolitics.com labels Michigan's Caucus as confusing or time-consuming they should perhaps look into doing some research.

If they are stating that caucuses are time-consuming for the party (including local party organizations) to run, they are correct. I was a caucus site volunteer during the 2004 Caucus and an enormous amount of time was spent during the lead-up to the Caucus and an enormous amount of volunteer-hours were expended the day of the Caucus. The people that I know that participated in the administration of the 2004 Caucus care deeply about their party and their respective communities. All involved were passionate about providing a fair means for people to express their preference of candidate, even when the results did not agree with their own personal preference.

There are a lot of theories regarding this debate that really don't seem to raise the level of political discourse and quite frankly I expect more.

by Michael Mistak 2007-08-24 02:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton
In the interest of full disclosure I am not writing this comment to defend Edwards or the position some of his supporters are taking in the Caucus vs. Primary debate. I am writing this article to defend my Party's process and the activists that choose to work within it. I am with Hillary.
by Michael Mistak 2007-08-24 02:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Are Michigan Republicans Trying To Win Clinton

In that case, I have no problem with a "caucus" of this kind (especially if they allowed internet voting as mentioned above). My problem is with Iowa-style caucusing.

by fgvanzee 2007-08-24 04:33AM | 0 recs

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