Is Mitt Romney Running Out of Money?

Last week I took a look at Mitt Romney's spending patterns ahead of the Ames, Iowa straw poll and determined that although Romney would likely get a bit of a boost from his win, the results actually augured poorly for his campaign because of the large amount of money that he had to expend in order to secure a win. Indeed at his rate of spending per vote in Ames, Romney would have to spend between $27.5 billion and $62 billion in order to win the popular vote, an amount of money that far outpaces his own vast personal wealth. As I noted at the time of my last post, perhaps that was an unfair comparison because it will undoubtedly cost less per vote in a general election than in a straw poll. That said, Romney's spending habits clearly are not sustainable, particularly because of the fact that he actually isn't bringing in such huge fundraising dollars (without his own contributions his campaign would have about the cash-on-hand of John McCain). And as a further indication of this unsustainability, Romney is reported to be drastically curtailing his expenditures on paid media. Marc Ambinder has the scoop.

For the time being, Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign has stopped airing its television ads on network affiliates in Iowa and New Hampshire, Republicans who traffic in traffic say.

A rotation of ads is still running on cable television channels in those states. But the total volume will be markedly less noticable to television viewers than in July, when Romney's advertising saturated several Iowa television markets.

[...]

It's not unusual a campaign to pare down its advertising in the dog days of August. Romney's campaign had acknowledged that they would probably try to save a bit of money between the Ames straw poll on August 11th and Labor Day.

Romney's early advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire, his numerous visits to the states, and the mixed fortunes of his rivals are credited with his strong standing in early state polls. To date, the campaign has spent more than $6M on television and radio ads. Romney's ads have aired on cable in other early states, like South Carolina and Florida.

Sure, it sounds like there are some explanations as to why this might not actually be a sign of trouble for the Romney campaign, specifically that other campaigns traditionally have shied away from spending significant sums on ads during this period. But then again, the Romney campaign isn't exactly running a traditional campaign -- seldom have we seen a presidential candidate, outside of a Ross Perot or a Steve Forbes, self-fund to the extent that Romney has. So though there is an argument to be made about diminishing returns for advertising dollars, I'm not certain that it applies to Romney, who has spent like a drunken sailor and been able to do so by giving at least $9 million to his campaign so far.

Tags: Fundraising, Mitt Romney, Republican Primaries, Television Ads (all tags)

Comments

2 Comments

Romney closed Ames office

Both Romney and Brownback closed their Ames, Iowa offices last week. It could be that they only planned to keep them open through the Ames straw poll.

I could see Brownback scaling back because he did poorly in the Ames straw poll, and with limited funds, he has to be reassessing his strategy.

But Romney won the poll and should be working to keep the momentum going in Iowa. He might be running out of money.

As a comparison, the six top Democratic presidential candidates each maintain an office in Ames. So it is a location worth maintaining, at least for a serious Democrat.

by tomcat 2007-08-20 05:22PM | 0 recs
Small Donor Base

Romney has a super committed donor base consisting of former colleagues, family friends, and Mormons.  Unfortunately, it is also comparatively small.  I suspect that Romney contributors have the highest share of maxed out donors.

On the other hand, it seems to me that Romney has the best campaign management.  If that perception is correct then his campaign will adapt and overcome.

PS: I am also wondering how the troubles in the global financial markets will affect fundraising.  Since Democrats have a greater number of small donors, one should suspect that the Republicans will fall further behind as their core donors are getting hammered on Wall Street.  In terms of primary candidates, that should affect Giuliani and Romney the most.

by Hellmut 2007-08-21 06:38AM | 0 recs

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