More Bad News for House Republicans

Man, just when you thought the news couldn't get worse for House Republicans, who already have an extremely uphill climb if they hope to retake the lower chamber of Congress this fall, things get a little bit tougher. Josh Kraushaar and Patrick O'Connor have the story for The Politico.

A potential wave of Republican retirements is dimming the GOP's already slim chances of recapturing the House in 2008.

The somewhat surprising announcement Thursday by Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) not to seek reelection and the expected retirement announcement of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) Friday give Democrats two new opportunities to pick up GOP-held seats.

Rep. Chip Pickering (R-Miss.), who represents a safely Republican seat, also announced his retirement Thursday. And though his decision will not likely alter the political map, it is a little vote of confidence for the GOP's chances to regain the majority.

[...]

Republicans need to pick up 16 seats to win back the House, and every new tight race makes it more difficult for them to do that.

The seats being vacated by Hastert and Pryce will little doubt be home to competitive races this cycle, with the Democratic homing in on just about any opportunity to challenge the GOP in open seat races in districts that are either clearly competitive or marginally competitive. Pickering's district, which is significantly more Republican than that of his two other colleagues announcing their retirement this week, will obviously be more difficult for the Democrats to win next fall but could, nevertheless, require at least some funding and real attention from the National Republican Congressional Committee, neither of which it has much of a surplus of at this juncture.

Kraushaar and O'Connor are correct that the greater concern for the NRCC at this point, however, is not necessarily these three retirements but rather the possibility that they are an omen of times to come: A deluge of retirements from within the House Republicans' ranks. With the NRCC trailing, and trailing badly, both in terms fundraising and cash-on-hand, it's would be mighty difficult for the party to hold its own in the absence of a plethora or retirements. But with a huge financial deficit and an excess of open seats to defend, the Republicans may have to start thinking about how to limit losses rather than how to pick up seats.

Tags: dccc, Fundraising, House 2008, NRCC, Retirements (all tags)

Comments

6 Comments

Strike while the Iron is hot
Our opportunities continue to grow.  We should not hesitate to push hard in these and all districts.  It is in our best interests to gain as many seats as possible.  
If the real estate downturn continues and with Bush intentionally looking the other way as high priced markets like CA, NY, CT get battered couple that with the increasing risks of a global energy shortage, 2009/2010 will be challenging times.  I hope for as strong a progressive DEM caucus as possible to weather these storms(hopefully a Democratic president).  Conservatives will have an I told you so attitude and of course blame us for the ills facing the nation.  The wind is at our backs, we should not get complacent, we should run every race as if we are 10 points down but most of all we should not be conservative with our expectations for election.  Challenge all 435 seats and challenge effectively.
by gasperc 2007-08-17 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: More Bad News for GOP

With the three retirements this week, six GOPers (so far) have said they will retire from the House.  That includes Duncan Hunter, Ray, LaHood, and according to Bob Novak Jerry Lewis (CA-41).  Last cycle, 20 GOPers did not run in the general election.  Eight retired, eight sought higher office, three were forced out by scandal (not counting Duke Cunningham), and one was beaten in a primary.

With the exception of Bobby Jindal who is running for Governor of LA this November, no GOP House member is seeking either a House or Senate seat.  Hunter, Tancredo, and Ron Paul are running for President and so far Hunter is out and Tancredo may well join him.

Next out could be Rick Renzi, Talph Regula, or C.W. "Bill" Young.  Then again it could also be a scandal case like Don Young.  Or Tom Davis.

by David Kowalski 2007-08-17 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: News for Republicans

Long term, this country needs to be saved from a two-party system where one party is progressive and the other is nuts and corrupt at best, fascist at worst.

For the Repub Party to once again become a responsible player in the nation's traditional two-party system, it must get rid of all the current guilty leaders and the Bushbot enablers. All of 'em. And we certainly want to help in that purge. It's our patriotic duty.

So the more Repubs who retire, resign, or get defeated from the current crop in Congress, the quicker could come a rebuilding of a moderate Repub Party.

If we're lucky, then the Repubs elected to Congress in 2010 will be able to say, Who's Tom DeLay? or, Who's Jerry Falwell? as easily as they even now say, Who's Tom Foley?

Actually, in the out years of 2012 and beyond, we Democrats may not be quite so lucky if that purge and rebuilding comes to pass. But then, our party is the one that puts country above party even now.

by Woody 2007-08-17 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: News for Republicans

At best, the Democratic party has acted like a centrist party in recent years. Progressive? ... I wish.

by Oregonian 2007-08-17 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: News for Republicans

Since the republicans are basically being restricted to an almost purely southern party it's exceptionally unlikely that they'd be able to refashion themselves into a moderate or progressive party anytime in the near future at all. To do so would cost them what base they have left in the south. Once their existing 'moderates' are gone from the north, west coast, mid-west and interior west they will completely dependant on and run by their particularly crazy and conservative southern faction. Each moderate they lose from their caucus leaves a more conservative caucus behind as a result. They could be in a very bad situation for several generations.

by Quinton 2007-08-17 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: More Bad News for House Republicans

Wasn't Wes Clark drafted in 2004?

by Matt Ortega 2007-08-17 08:04PM | 0 recs

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