We Won't Have Hastert to Kick Around Anymore

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 09:11:46 AM EDT

Congressional Quarterly has the story (sorry, no link yet):

Former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., will not seek re-election next year, GOP sources say. A formal announcement is expected Friday.

As I have noted before Illinois 14th congressional district, which Hastert represents, is very winnable for the Democrats, particularly if the seat is open (as this CQ report indicates it will be). In the 2004 presidential election the district leaned roughly five points more Republican than the nation as a whole, a number that could be lower in 2008 given the distinct possibility that a Democrat with ties to Illinois (either Barack Obama, who represents the state, or Hillary Clinton, who was born and raised there) will top the ticket.

Anyway, we'll have more on this story as it continues to develop.

Update [2007-8-14 13:26:48 by Jonathan Singer]: More from CBS 2 in Chicago, under the heading, "CBS 2 Exclusive: Hastert Leaving Congress":

CBS 2 Political Editor Mike Flannery reports exclusively sources say that they expect Hastert to announce he will not seek re-election next year.

Well, that sounds slightly less convincing than the CQ report (who are the "sources"?), but now there are a couple of news organizations running with the story. Again, more here as we get it...

Update [2007-8-14 13:28:13 by Todd Beeton]:The Beacon News reports that Hastert's announcement will be at 10:30am on Friday at the Kendall County Courthouse in Yorkville, IL (although Jonathan seems to have scooped everyone as to what Hastert will actually be announcing.) As for who might be challenging for the seat, here's an update on the current state of the field:

In 2006, unknown John Laesch received 40% of the vote against the sitting Speaker of the House, just 4% below Kerry's share of the 2004 presidential vote in that district. Laesch is running again next year, but unlike in some other districts, the field is hardly being cleared for him. Democratic challengers for the nomination include entrepreneur and physicist Bill Foster and lawyer Jotham Stein. Diarist Downtowner has been keeping us up on the Laesch campaign and Bill Foster has himself posted here.

On the Republican side, Swing State Project had announced late last year that Illinois state legislators Rep. Tim Schmitz and state Sen. Chris Lauzen would likely enter the race if Hastert were not to seek re-election although a recent Bob Novak column points to Hastert's chief of staff Mike Stokke as his would be heir apparent.

Update [2007-8-14 14:31:33 by Jonathan Singer]: More from CQ:

After less than a year as a rank-and-file House member, former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert is expected to call an end to a political career that made him the longest serving Republican Speaker in the history of the House of Representatives.
Several Illinois newspapers, including the Aurora Beacon News and the Chicago Tribune, reported Tuesday that the Illinois Republican has scheduled a Friday announcement on the steps of the Kendall County Courthouse in Yorkville, Ill. While Hastert aides are refusing to discuss what he plans to say, he is expected to announce that he will not run for a 12th term in 2008, according to Republican sources.

Tags: Dennis Hastert, House 2008, IL-14, Illinois, Retirements (all tags)

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Re: We Won't Have Hastert to Kick Around Anymore

Hastert's seat is going to have money pumped into it by Democrats to make a statement. Retiree's are going to have their seats contested strongly. Open fields are the best place for fighting, instead of an uphill battle.

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-08-14 09:25AM | 0 recs

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this one looks like there will be plenty...

of fighting. i've met all three candidates, and the newcomers are worthy opponents. bill foster attended yearlykos and was the only il-14 candidate at the regional blog caucus that 60-80 bloggers from the area attended. jotham stein is sort of a wild card in this race. relatively new to an area that's seen explosive growth -- which may undercut notions that he's not from the area (since most democrats probably aren't) -- he's got some innovative approaches and has latched on to one of this year's big ideas (global warming).

i, like many of the netroots in illinois, am underwhelmed by john laesch. he raised a pittance in the first half of the year, dead last among all the declared candidates. his direction of david gill's campaign in 2004 was less than impressive. he used the chicago machine tactics to try to throw another democrat off the ballot. he's (falsely) outted a blogger. the generic ballot test less than a month out had the unnamed democratic candidate within the MOE, yet he dramatically underperformed on election day. exit polling from that district showed hastert with high negatives for a winner. some democrats in the district (i have relatives who live in the 14th) just couldn't vote for him because they felt he was too immature.

what we know is that this will be a very expensive race, at least on the republican side. both foster and stein have a much better chance at being competitive and raising the kind of money needed to win (especially in a district within the expensive chicago media market)...

by bored now 2007-08-14 10:12AM | 0 recs

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Re: this one looks like there will be plenty...

From the CQ article (FWIW):

Foster reported total campaign receipts of $131,000 through the end of June, compared to $73,000 for Stein and $24,000 for Laesch.

Note that a significant portion (all?) of the Foster money is a self-donation.

by ltsply2 2007-08-14 10:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: We Won't Have Hastert to Kick Around Anymore

It will be interesting to see how much play this race gets in the Chicago media market, and if takes any air out of the IL-10 balloon. The majority of this district is in the far suburbs, but a lot of it extends past that a vast distance. It should be a race, but this is going to be a tough nut to crack.

by AC4508 2007-08-14 09:37AM | 0 recs

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Re: We Won't Have Hastert to Kick Around Anymore

Dennis Hastert was my Representative when I lived in Illinois and that district was as Republican as they come. If that becomes a Democratic seat then we are going to have a landslide in 08. Happy days are here again.

by changehorses08 2007-08-14 09:37AM | 0 recs

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Goodbye, so long, don't let the door...ahem

Ahhhh, after 20 years of Hastert as my congressperson - well, masquerading as my congressperson - this is a relief on a lot of levels.

We are planning on live-blogging his "official" announcement from the Kendall County Courthouse on Friday - 10 a.m. central time.

Lisa Bennett
aka Downtowner
blogging for John Laesch

by Downtowner 2007-08-14 09:48AM | 0 recs

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Tim Schmitz

Is out - he has declined the opportunity and said he will remain in the State Legislature.

The most likely Republican contenders at this point are, as noted Chris Lauzen - sadly my State Senator, notorious for being the only member of the State Legislature who wanted to keep it illegal to breastfeed in public in Illinois, and Jim Oberweis - the guy who is so far to the right that, despite coming in second on the primary ballot to Jim Ryan (who withdrew in the midst of a scandal) he scared the State Republican Party so badly that they brought in Alan Keyes to run against Obama instead of giving Oberweis the nod. Yeah, that's right - he's to the right of Alan Keyes. Also a self-financing millionaire who has twice failed in runs for the Governor's office - and once for Senate of course.

These two guys, and Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns, have formed exploratory committees. Locally Lauzen seems like the most likely candidate to take the primary.

Lisa Bennett
aka Downtowner
blogging for John Laesch

by Downtowner 2007-08-14 09:57AM | 0 recs

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Re: We Won't Have Hastert to Kick Around Anymore

You can follow IL-14 coverage at PrairieStateBlue as well. Or at least, you can if you want to see what local Illinois activists actually think of the race. ;) (And we have the Laesch campaign and the Foster campaign, too.)

by ltsply2 2007-08-14 10:04AM | 0 recs

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Might be nothing here

Everyone in Illinois seems to expect Hastert to retire, but I have yet to see any sure thing. The CBS2 Flannery bit is the closest you're going to get. (At least he cites unnamed sources.)

Here is the CQ article. The "proof" that Hastert is retiring?

The expected retirement of former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert from Illinois' 14th District will serve as a test of Republican strength in predominantly suburban and exurban districts that have long been GOP bailiwicks.

Well we all expect his retirement, but they don't seem to have any more inside information than the rest of us.

by ltsply2 2007-08-14 10:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: Might be nothing here

2nd CQ piece is up. It has something in the way of "inside information", but I still don't think it's much more than what we already knew. (i.e. That lots of people in Illinois, GOP included, expect him to retire.)

After less than a year as a rank-and-file House member, former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert is expected to call an end to a political career that made him the longest serving Republican Speaker in the history of the House of Representatives.

Several Illinois newspapers, including the Aurora Beacon News and the Chicago Tribune, reported Tuesday that the Illinois Republican has scheduled a Friday announcement on the steps of the Kendall County Courthouse in Yorkville, Ill. While Hastert aides are refusing to discuss what he plans to say, he is expected to announce that he will not run for a 12th term in 2008, according to Republican sources.

My emphasis added.

by ltsply2 2007-08-14 10:22AM | 0 recs

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Now confirmed

OK, pop the bubbly.
Reuters:

Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Dennis Hastert is expected to announce on Friday his retirement from Congress, a House Republican aide said on Tuesday.

"He is going to announce a retirement ... that's definitive," said the aide, who asked not to be identified.

But the aide added that it was not yet clear whether Hastert, the longest-serving Republican speaker before stepping down after the 2006 elections, would leave his Illinois congressional seat immediately or would serve out his term, which runs through next year.

Associated Press:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rep. Dennis Hastert of Illinois, who served as speaker of the House longer than any Republican in history, intends to retire next year at the end of his current term, party officials said Tuesday.

A formal announcement is planned for Friday.

by ltsply2 2007-08-14 01:56PM | 0 recs