Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:55:05 AM EDT

Say goodbye to Gordon Smith:

This morning I took the first step on an exciting journey for a better future for Oregon. I filed papers with the Secretary of the Senate to formally begin my campaign for the United States Senate.

I'm running for U.S. Senate because I believe we need to make some big changes in our country. And I believe George Bush and Gordon Smith are leading us in the wrong direction.

Blue Oregon has more.

Tags: 2008 senate (all tags)

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Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

Great News. I predict the Democrats will pick up 3-5 senate seats in '08 and I believe Oregon will be one of them.

Does Senator Wyden have some sort of non-confrontation pact with Smith similar to Reid and Senator John Ensign in Nevada? He should scrap it.

by ameri 2007-08-01 10:02AM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

I'm more optimistic.  I predict that Democrats will pick up between 5-8 seats.

1. Colorado

  1. Maine
  2. New Hampshire
  3. Oregon
  4. Minnesota

6. Virginia (if Mark Warner runs)

  1. Alaska (if Begich runs)
  2. Nebraska (if Kerrey runs)
  3. North Carolina (if Easley or John Edwards run)

I think we are at risk of losing Louisiana just based on the demographic situation, but Landrieu hasn't gotten a serious challenger yet.

by Vox Populi 2007-08-01 10:19AM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

  Neither Easley nor Edwards will run for Senate.  State Rep. Grier Martin shows some promise.  It's really too bad that Brad Miller passed on a Senate run.

by cilerder86 2007-08-01 10:31AM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

Couple of those races like Alaska, Virginia and Nebraska should not be added to the list unless it is an open seat. I will also add a possible open seat in New Mexico and Mississippi(if Mike Moore runs) on the list.

As of now I would rank
1)CO- Open seat
2)NH- with or without Shaheen
3)MN-
4)OR-
5)ME- Collins is personally popular.

by nkpolitics 2007-08-01 10:53AM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

Well, Alaska I think has successfully been made vulnerable due to the investigation over Ted Stevens. The real question is will our strongest Democrat, Mark Begich, go for the kill and run.

I also have trouble imagining scenarios where Hagel and Warner end up running. I think we should more or less declare at this point these to be open seats. Mississippi and New Mexico, though, are a different story. I think if Cochran were to retire and Mike Moore to run, that we would win this seat.

I think we'll have another sleeper race burgeon big, ala Kentucky '04 or Virginia '06. The goal is to recruit strong and competent candidates even in places where the odds don't look good. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina (if Graham loses the primary) all have this potential.

And do not count off Kentucky just yet. I believe that our strongest candidate is the one who just formed an exploratory committee, Attorney General Greg Stumbo, who likely will have solid support in Eastern Kentucky already. If our presidential nominee is John Edwards, I feel McConnell will be in even more danger.

by KainIIIC 2007-08-01 01:23PM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

The blue state Republican US Senators up for re-election in 2008 ie Collins(ME),Coleman(MN),Sununu(NH),and Smith(OR)- are in same situation as Lincoln Chaffee(RI- 2006).These incumbents were somewhat respected in their home state but loss due to the huge Democratic wave in 2006(Anti Bush)in a Blue State. - A Democratic wave is expected in 2008.

The open CO seat is similar to 2006 PA US Senate Race. The Republican nominee(Bob Schaffer) is a wingnut in a state that is trending Democratic.

Stevens(AK),Domenici(NM),and Inhofe(OK) are in the similar situation as Conrad Burns(MT-2006). These incumbents might go down due to scandal,senility,extremism.

McConnell(KY),Dole(NC),and Alexander(TN)- are in a similar situation as DeWine(OH-2006)or Talent(MO-2006). Incumbents have mediocre approval rating in battleground states but lose due to national and local issues.

Sessions(AL),Chambliss(GA)and Cornyn(TX)- are in a similar situation as George Allen(VA-2006)- These incumbents are likely to have a Macaca Moment.

Possible Open seats in
Idaho(Craig),Mississippi(Cochran),Nebras ka(Hagel),Virginia(Warner) are in a similar situation as the open seat in Tennesse(2006). The Democrats have a strong candidate but could lose due to the Republican nature of the state.

by nkpolitics 2007-08-01 04:14PM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

I like your taxonomy system! Now we can classify each race as a Chaffee, Santorum, Burns, DeWine, Allen, or a Frist.

Then we can condense our posts by saying things like "Hmm... I don't think we should support Candidate X in the primary. He's a Chaffee challenger running in a Frist. Candidate Y would be the ideal challenger in a DeWine but I think he'd be competitive in an Allen or a Burns as well." :-)

Seriously though, that's a nice way to think about the 2006 races and how they might apply in 2008.

by loon 2007-08-02 09:19AM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

I could have easily compared the 2008 US Senate Race with the 2000 US Senate Race. In 2000. The Republican incumbents that loss their seats were elected in 1994 GOP sweep. Spencer Abraham (MI),Rod Grams(MN),and John Aschcroft(MO). plus Bill Roth(DE) who lost due to the age issue. and Slade Gorton(WA).

Looking at the 2008 US Senate Race- 7 Republican US Senators up for re-election in 2008 were elected in 2002(a Pro GOP year due to Bush's popularity during 9-11).
1)Saxby Chambliss(GA)
2)Norm Coleman(MN)
3)John Sununu(NH)
4)Liddy Dole(NC)
5)Lindsey Graham(SC)
6)Lamar Alexander(TN)
7)John Cornyn(TX)

Coleman(MN)and Sununu(NH) victories were considered flukes. They won narrowly due to backlash of the Wellstone Memorial Service(MN) and phone jamming(NH). In 2008 which is a Presidential year. The Democratic Presidential nominee will carry Minnesota and New Hampshire by a wide margin- thereby helping the 2008 Democratic US Senate Nominee- MN(Franken) and NH(Shaheen.) +2D

In 2000- Democrats won the open Republican Seat in Florida- the race was between a strong Democratic nominee and a weak Republican nominee.

Open or Potential Open seats
1)Alaska(Stevens)- Mark Begich
2)Colorado(Allard)- Mark Udall
3)Idaho(Craig)- Larry LaRocco
4)Mississippi(Cochran)- Mike Moore
5)Nebraska(Hagel)- Mike Fahey
6)Virginia(Warner)- Mark Warner

Idaho and Nebraska are most likely will remain in the Republican column due to the Republican nature of those states.

Colorado and Virginia are most likely be Democratic takeovers- Both are battleground states trending Democratic. +4D

Alaska could be a Democratic pickup due to scandals involving the incumbent.
Mississippi could be a Democratic pickup due to a strong Democratic nominee who is a proven Statewide vote getter.(Mike Moore)- Despite being a Red State. The Republican Nominee for the Mississippi US Senate Race does not have coattails.

Domenici(NM)who announced that he is running again could loose to the scandal and senility issue assumeing a top tier candidate like Tom Udall,Patricia Madrid or Martin Chavez runs- Bill Richardson is a wild card but he is more likely to be Vice President or Secretary of State.

Non Freshman Blue State Republican US Senators ie Collins(ME) and Smith(OR) are in a similar situation as Slade Gorton(WA). They are well respected in their homestate but ME and OR will be Blue States at the Presidential Level so Tom Allen(ME) or Jeff Merkley(OR)- may end up winning.

by nkpolitics 2007-08-02 11:28AM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

Good to see it's official, especially after DeFazio, Kitzhauber, and Blumenauer passed.

Has anyone polled this specific matchup yet?

by Max Fletcher 2007-08-01 10:36AM | 0 recs
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hmmm

I Googled it, and Jonathan wrote a post a while back that described the Smith-Merkley matchup as "within single digits."

Do you guys have anything specific you could share with us?

by Max Fletcher 2007-08-01 10:39AM | 0 recs
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Re: hmmm

Grove and Lake have both polled the race, and both Novick and Merkley do well. The "within single digits thing" is after informing questions that are negative about Smith. Without that bias, the initial runs were Smith at or just below 50%, Merkley and Novick both in the mid 20s. The "informed" head to head puts Smith in the mid 40s, the challengers both around 40.

According to Lake, Novick's name ID is 46; Merkley's 39.

Either candidate has a real shot.

by torridjoe 2007-08-01 11:57AM | 0 recs
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Re: Jeff Merkley is into Oregon Senate race

That seems to be a good, non-milquetoast, short, simple announcement.  Perfect.

Jeanne Shaheen, are you reading this?  When you announce, make it simple, compelling, and mention Sununu in the same sentence as Bush.

Sounds simple, but I've already seen a lot of announcements that have been AWFUL.  

by jgarcia 2007-08-01 10:46AM | 0 recs

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