Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

Could "Republican" become a dirty word?  That may be a stretch, but this week saw several pieces of bad news for the Republican brand:

It could be a long cycle for the GOP, especially for Senate Republicans.

Potentially helping to expedite some Senate Republican retirements, a couple prominent Democrats are on the cusp of entering their respective states' 2008 Senate races.  In Kentucky, state Attorney General Greg Stumbo filed papers to proceed with a Senate exploratory committee.  WaPo's Cillizza offers that "this race has potential despite McConnell's significant political chops and fundraising capacity." It sure does have potential, especially given that Mitch McConnell is currently amid his worst approval ratings ever.  And, in Oregon, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley is approaching a Senate announcement, with papers expected to be filed on August 1.  A campaign staff is already being assembled.  You may remember from last week's Week in the Senate Races that polling numbers matching up Merkley and Gordon Smith were very encouraging.  Meanwhile, announced candidate political activist Steve Novick, while polling well behind Gordon Smith (unsurprising given Novick's relatively low name ID at this stage), holds Smith to 50% in a match-up.  We could see a very healthy Democratic primary in Oregon, where the candidates focus the attention on the real Gordon Smith record.  Meanwhile, the Senate's twelve Democratic incumbents up for re-election in 2008 continue to face no top-tier opposition.

There's a saying in sports: "The team that wants it more will win." Well, compare these Senators' Q2 outlays to their respective Senate Campaign Committees and tell me who wants it more:

Notable contributions to the DSCC from campaign committees of or "leadership PACs" associated with Democratic senators
  • Dianne Feinstein of California: $250,000
  • Bill Nelson of Florida: $150,000
  • Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada: $50,000
  • Robert Menendez of New Jersey: $50,000
  • Patty Murray of Washington: $50,000
  • Sherrod Brown of Ohio: $25,000
  • Follow the North Star Fund PAC (Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota): $15,000
  • JAZZ PAC (Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana): $10,000 ...

Notable contributions to the NRSC from "leadership PACs" associated with Republican senators

  • Hawkeye PAC (Charles E. Grassley of Iowa): $15,000
  • Heartland Values PAC (John Thune of South Dakota): $7,500
  • KITPAC (Christopher S. Bond of Missouri): $15,000
  • North Star Leadership PAC (Norm Coleman of Minnesota): $7,500
  • Preserving America's Traditions (Pat Roberts of Kansas): $10,000

I think who wants it more is clear. And if you think the DSCC's massive fundraising advantage over the NRSC isn't already paying dividends, note the "notable transfers" section for both committees. The DSCC has sent $50,000 to the NH-Dems, $20,000 to the ME-Dems and $15,000 to the CO-Dems. The NRSC has no listed "notable transfers."

Political analyst Stu Rothenberg put out his latest Senate ratings this week.  There are four categories: Currently Safe (including 10 of 12 Democrats and only 11 of 22 Republicans); Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (including Democrat Tim Johnson and five Republicans, from NC, NM, NE, KY and AK); Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (including Democrat Mary Landrieu and three Republicans, from MN, ME, and OR); and Toss-Up (including zero Democrats and three Republican seats, from CO, NH, and VA).

Two items really struck me from Rothenberg's list. First, Virginia is considered a "Toss-Up." Now, given John Warner's virtually non-extistent fundraising, one can easily speculate that he will retire. But, would that alone put Virginia in the Toss-Up category? That alone might more likely put it in the Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party category - unless Rothenberg has some inside dope on popular former Governor Mark Warner's 2008 intentions. Something to keep an eye out for. The second item that struck me was South Dakota's Tim Johnson being situated in the Clear, rather than "Narrow," Advantage for Incumbent Party. Rothenberg must think that Johnson will likely run for re-election and that ultra-conservative GOP Gov. Mike Rounds won't challenge him.

To wrap up, here are a few quick hits from around the country this week:

Alaska: I fully expect the corruption investigations encompassing Alaska's Congressional delegates to generate an implosion rivalling, if not exceeding, what we saw from the Ohio Republican Party.  This week, Ted Stevens declared that he will simply not respond to any questions that have the word "investigation" in them.  It also doesn't help Stevens that the Club for Growth is sniffing around Alaska for primary challengers.  Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski had quite the week.  TPM offers a terrific recap video of her sweetheart land deal scandal.  In a nutshell, Murkowski was "lucky" enough to score some prime riverfront land at a fraction of its actual value, amounting an illegal gift worth between $70,000 and $170,000.  A "conservative-leaning" government watchdog group then filed an ethics complaint over the deal, and Murkowski sheepishly sold the land back.  However, since the misdeed wasn't "owning" the ill-gotten land, but rather accepting the illegal gift, selling the land back shouldn't absolve her.  We'll see where this ethics complaint goes.

Minnesota: Republicans must be very worried about Al Franken. Of course, challengers will often take shots at incumbents to bring them down as the challengers try to compete. But I don't remember a situation when the incumbent Party took such direct shots at a challenger this early in a cycle, especially in a competitive primary! The only reasonable conclusion is that Republicans are very worried about Franken and the fact that he is already outraising Norm Coleman. (Unless someone wants to throw the stunningly insightful "reverse psychology" bunk out there.)  Oh, it probably also doesn't help the MN-GOP that Coleman's approvals are in the toilet at an atrocious 43-48, and that he is taking some pretty bad local press on the chin.

New Mexico: If retired Lieutenant Colonel Harold Teeter is any indication, Pete Domenici is losing his base.

Georgia: Is Saxby Chambliss using the list of people who contact his Senate office regarding official government business inappropriately for fundraising?  Isn't that illegal?  Should someone maybe look into this?  All the more reason that there is no incumbent in 2008 I'd more like to see lose than "Shameless" (or "Spineless") Saxby Chambliss.

Finally, get those creative juices flowing because Senator John Kerry is running a contest to elicit the most effective radio ad to run against Roadblock Republicans.  Check it out!

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

Tags: 2008 election, AK-Sen, DSCC, Fundraising, GA-Sen, John Kerry, KY-Sen, MN-Sen, NM-Sen, NRSC, OR-Sen, Republicans, Roadblock Republicans, SD-Sen, VA-Sen, Week in the Senate Races (all tags)

Comments

18 Comments

Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

Bush Republican already is a dirty word

by Trey Rentz 2007-07-29 06:11AM | 0 recs
AK-GOP vs OH-GOP

Ohio is a swing state. Alaska is not. Even if the Alaskan Republicans "implode" like you suggest, as evidenced by the 2006 Governor's race (which we can all agree was the worst GOP environment in quite some time), another GOPer will simply rise up and win. And given Palin's 90% approval ratings, its clearly not a brand issue in Alaska as it was in Ohio.

by Unabridged 2007-07-29 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: AK-GOP vs OH-GOP

Agree with your statement but I also must add. The Republican Incumbent for the 2006 Ohio US Senate Race- Mike DeWine was a non controversial moderate Republican Senator who could have survived during a neutral cycle. DeWine's loss had to do with a formidable Democratic opponent, High unpopularity of the OH and National GOP. Stevens can easily be compared to Conrad Burns of MT. But the big difference between the 2008 AK US Senate race and the 2006 MT US Senate Race is Stevens may retire or lose in the Primary.

by nkpolitics 2007-07-29 10:01AM | 0 recs
Two more differences...

Montana already had a history of supporting Democratic statewide candidates, like Baucus and Schweitzer. Only one Democrat has been elected top-ballot statewide in Alaska in the last 20 years, and he just lost twice in a row.

Second, Montana had not one but two candidates against Burns, and so far, Alaska has none against Stevens. There's talk of recruiting Begich or Berkowitz, but nothing close to definitive, and with national Democrats believing that AK-AL is a target as well, who knows what will happen.

by Unabridged 2007-07-29 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: AK-GOP vs OH-GOP

Palin isn't really the best example there.  From what I've read, there is a pretty large schism between the Palin camp and the traditional AK-GOP institution like the Stevens and Murkowski families.  Palin's popularity comes in part from the fact that she's not part of that entrenched cabal.  So, should Stevens, for example, face a primary challenger, don't expect Palin to come to his defense or expend any political capital backing him up.

by Senate Guru 2007-07-29 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: AK-GOP vs OH-GOP

Well, sure, but that wasn't my point. My point is that, in Ohio, it sucks to be a Republican. In Alaska, it sucks to be part of the old cabal, but as Palin indicates, people can still be vastly successful Republicans. And given the overall lean of the state, even if Stevens is brought down (either by investigation or in a primary, both of which are equally unlikely) there's still a better-than-not chance that the GOP will hold the seat.

by Unabridged 2007-07-29 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

And all of this speaks loudly to the point of not nominating republicans as if they were Democrats. Senator Lieberman being only the most obvious example.

Your job (yes I mean you) is to insure that this does not happen. On so many issues, progressive leadership is the key to popular support, and the key to actually getting done what we are here to do. Not the mouthing of it, as in some recent congressional disappointments, but actually getting them done.

The minimum wage bill, with >80%(!!!) support is just one example.

An real end to the Iraq occupation is what Americans want. Real Universal Health Care. Zn end to poverty, an end to the destruction of civil and hu8man rights. They (We) also want a full explanation of what happened and why. We (They) are also fairly sure that it will mean lengthy jail sentences if the examination is real.

But being committed to actually changing who is in charge, that is what is wanted on the streets. Hatred of Lobbyists is just code for getting big oil, big pharma and big insurance et al.  out of power with the same determination as the "Trust Busters" of our history, who broke up and scattered the giant conglomerates that controlled America.

A sea change in our progressive leadership (again I mean you) is necessary to our survival on the planet. We must move with the courage of our convictions, what must be done - well- must be done.

Go lead, don't protest.

by inexile 2007-07-29 07:06AM | 0 recs
we need to keep McConnell tied up

I would put our chances of winning the KY Senate seat at less than 10 percent, but I appreciate any Democrat who is willing to take Mitch on. If nothing else the race will tie up a lot of Republican cash.

by desmoinesdem 2007-07-29 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: we need to keep McConnell tied up

don't be so sure.  and i am not one of those "pie-in-the-sky" Dems.

by jgarcia 2007-07-29 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

Swap KY for GA, and McConnell for Chambliss, and the same reasoning applies.  

by CLLGADEM 2007-07-29 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races
We had an incredible event yesterday in front of Senator McConnell's house! The Capitol Police greeted us as we arrived to canvass his neighborhood with yard signs cluing us in that he was at home.  As the afternoon wore on, the Capitol Police approached us again and implied that the senator wouldn't leave until we left so we stayed until 11pm, and then brought out candles to keep up the spirited vigil.
Link to video:
http://www.hillbillyreport.com/blog/2007 /07/iraq-summer-aae.html
by Hillbilly Report 2007-07-29 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

Great stuff, Hillbilly Report!

by Senate Guru 2007-07-29 05:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

say what you want about DiFi (and I am not a fan of hers at all), but she has ponied-up impressively.

by jgarcia 2007-07-29 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

Indeed.

Compare that with Alabama Republican Richard Shelby last year:

Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) gave $15,000 to the NRSC, leaving $11.5 million in his account even though he will not face reelection until 2010.

Especially considering the slim 7,000 vote margin of victory for Jim Webb over George "Macaca" Allen in Virginia and the even slimmer 3,000 vote margin for Jon Tester over Corrupt Conrad Burns in Montana, had Shelby ponied up a couple hundred thousand (that he'd barely miss anyway), he could very well still be a Committee Chairman and Republicans could still hold the Senate majority.  Really demonstrates that every dollar, every effort, every phone bank, every lit drop, every vote and every voter counts!  (So take nothing for granted!)

by Senate Guru 2007-07-29 05:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

Shelby was an asshole as a Democrat and he's an asshole now.  It's funny when you think about it.  Tight-ass Republicans!  haha.

by jgarcia 2007-07-29 05:47PM | 0 recs
Time for Organizing

There are two conservative Republican Senators in Wyoming just waiting to be beaten in 2008. Now is the time for some good organizing. I dream that a group of Wyoming ex-pats will decide to go back to Wyoming (bringing along a few of their friends) and organize like crazy for a year. Wyoming is small: in a year, a handful of people could have an extensive personal conversation with practically every adult in the state.

And this is the time: any decent human being should be concerned about all the horrible things that the Republicans have been up to for the past 6 years. Even the most conservative Republican, if she/he has any concern for our country, should be open to hearing about these many misdeeds that are destroying our country --  and should be open to considering voting for a Democrat in 2008.

And likewise for Alaska and New Mexico. Now is the time to organize: there is a whole year to change people's minds. And getting rid of some of these really obnoxious, conservative Senators would be wonderful.

by RandomNonviolence 2007-07-29 03:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races
I will divide the US Senate Races into three categories.
1)OPEN Seat elections
  a)Alaska- (Possible OPEN)Competitive/Republican hold
  b)Colorado- Competitive/Democratic gain(Senator Udall)
  c)Idaho- (Possible OPEN)Competitive/Republican hold
  d)Mississippi- (Possible OPEN) Competitive/Republican hold
  e)Nebraska- (Possible OPEN)Competitive/Republican hold
  f)New Mexico- (Possible OPEN)Democratic Gain.
  g)Virginia- (Possible OPEN)- Competive/Democratic Gain.
2)Battleground States.
  1)Alabama-(Sessions-R)- Republican Hold
  2)Arkansas- (Pryor-D)- Safe/Democratic Hold
  3)Georgia- (Chambliss-R)- Republican Hold
  4)Iowa- (Harkin-D)- Safe/ Democratic Hold
  5)Kentucky- (McConnell-R)-
  6)Lousiana- (Landrieu-D)- Democratic Hold
  7)Maine- (Collins-R)
  8)Minnesota-(Coleman-R)
  9)New Hampshire-(Sununu-R)- Democratic Gain
  10)New Jersey-(Lautenberg-D)Safe/Democratic Hold
  11)North Carolina-(Dole-R)-
  12)Oklahoma-(Inhofe-R)-Republican Hold
  13)Oregon- (Smith-D)
  14)South Carolina-(Graham-R)- Safe/Republican Hold
  15)South Dakota-(Johnson-D)- Democratic Hold
  16)Tennesse- (Alexander-R)- Republican Hold
  17)Texas-( Cornyn-R)- Republican Hold
by nkpolitics 2007-07-29 04:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

No need to use the extended entry for frontpage posts, thanks.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-07-29 04:42PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------