I don't mean to, with this post, suggest that there aren't other candidates in the race. Steve Novick, who spoke with me for an interview on MyDD back in April, has raised more than $200,000 for a race so far. I just haven't seen his numbers at this point, so I didn't want to speculate on them on this site.

How progressive is Merkley and would he be able to appeal statewide?

I'm sorry. I looked it over a few times and could not find the head-to-head number between Smith and Merkley. Can you point it out?

I feel like this race could be similar to the Lincoln Chafee-Sheldon Whitehouse race of '06.  A moderate Rep. loses a close race to a Dem in a state that votes reliably Dem. at the Presidential level.    Does anyone think that Smith will face a primary challenge from a more conservative candidate like Chafee did?

Yes, there is talk that anti-tax, gay hating, well-connected and well funded Bill Sizemore is exploring a challenge to Smith.

Sizemore couldn't beat a dead crook in the general. But Smith should be worried because he is, while a troglodyte, well known, particularly among GOPers and he will have enough cash to compete.  It's really pretty damn ideal because he is much stronger (at least on paper) than the mayor who challenged Chafee.

nrafter530 is correct, however, that Oregon is far less liberal than RI.  One is a swing state, trending blue and with blue roots in the modern era, the other about as blue as the come.

The war is just the thing to puncture the Smith mirage of moderation in my home state and even today many of the GOPers are still of the "good government" persuasion from the McCall-Hatfield wing.  Declining in numbers, sure, but some, like my mom and others who live in the Willamette Valley, understand all too well how Bush is taking money out of their pockets and turning the world against us.  They hate that when they want to travel to Europe.

Also, Oregon has a very small investment in the military-industrial complex, so there is that too.

It really is a shame Kitzhaber - best politician ever, a true liberal who polled like ~70% favorable in the red rural areas of the state - declined to take on Smith

I understand DeFazio declining because he has real power.  I think Blumenauer will ultimately regret not going for the next rung because he ain't all that in the House.

That was a spot-on analysis.

Hi Folks,

Steve Novick's campaign manager here. I encourage people to visit the website to get a better idea of Steve' progressive credentials on the War, health care, the environment and social inequality.

Although I am not ready to release our own numbers right now, I will say that they confirm the DSCC's data on Smith's vulnerability. But I will also add that they show Steve is in just as good, if not better, position to challenge Smith than Merkley.

Keep in mind that Gore won by only a few votes because of Ralph Nader -- who did better in Oregon than anywhere else.

And while Oregon is always a top-20 swing state, we're never a top-10 swing state in presidential years.

It's definitely an odd electoral climate.  It was Jeff Merkley who led the Democrats to take back the Oregon House after 16 years of Republican control.  And yet, every single statewide office is controlled by Democrats.  

Other than Gordon Smith in 1996 and 2002, Republicans have won very few statewide offices in the last 25 years.  (Labor Commish once, Secretary of State once, Attorney General twice, and Governor once.)

In fact, Smith's 2002 win over Bill Bradbury in a Republican year is the ONLY Republican statewide win in Oregon since the years started beginning with a 2.

I'd like to get some "Dump Gordon Smith" bumper stickers out there, to start planting the seed in more peoples' minds. Maybe I'll make up a few on one of those on-line sticker makers.