Potential GOP Vacancy Could Put IL-18 in Play
by Jonathan Singer, Wed Jun 06, 2007 at 06:59:58 PM EDT
It looks like Marty Meehan isn't the only member of the House who has been thinking about taking a position at a university. According to The Hill's Jackie Kucinich, GOP Rep. Ray LaHood of Illinois will soon decide whether he will leave Congress before his term is up for greener pastures in academe.
Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) will make a decision in "10 days to two weeks" about whether he will put his name in the running to become president of his alma mater, Bradley University."It's all about Bradley," LaHood said yesterday, brushing off the suggestion that a departure from Congress would be the result of the seven-term member's new minority status. "I was born in raised in Peoria, as a young boy I used to sneak into Bradley basketball games, my wife and I were both students at Bradley ... I'm a big Bradley fan."
LaHood added that he is "seriously thinking about" the job and has "talked to some people in the community about it." He noted that the university was not looking for a traditional president, but an individual who can raise the school's profile and demonstrate an ability to fundraise.
While Illinois 18 isn't the most competitive district in the country -- it leans about 5 points towards the Republicans in presidential elections, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index -- a vacancy here at this point in the cycle could potentially be very dangerous for the GOP. Already in a situation in which it is not clear that they have an opportunity to retake the House next fall, the addition of a competitive open race in which they are on the defensive could make it that much more difficult for them to pick up seats this cycle, let alone regain their majority.
What would make this race such a problem for the GOP is simple: money. As of the end of April, the National Republican Congressional Committee trailed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by a whopping $7.75 million in cash-on-hand. When debts and obligations are taken into account, the NRCC's hole is even bigger at $9.87 million. Simply put, House Republicans just would not have the money at this point to defend this seat as well as they would likely need to. Even if they were to invest, say $1 million here, and win (a best case scenario for them, no doubt), this would further drain their already low level of resources (they are well into debt, still) to the point where they might not be able to keep up with the DCCC by the end of the cycle. (Raising money just to pay off debts well into a cycle is never a great sign.)
Of course there is still the very real possibility that LaHood will not go the way of Meehan, accepting a position atop an institution of higher learning. But you know that's not going to stop Republican leaders from quaking in their boots over his potential retirement.
Tags: House 2008, IL-18, Illinois (all tags)
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