Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

I've been trying to track the transformational potential of the Bush presidency -- how the tenure of George W. Bush could change the electorate for decades to come to become significantly more Democratic -- for some time. Back before the election, for instance, I pointed to the argument that once political and partisan leanings are enshrined in young voters, as they appeared to be doing last fall, they tend stay with that cohort for as long as that cohort stays in the electorate.

Exit polling from last November's elections indicated that younger voters -- those age 18 to 29 -- were more likely than any other age group to vote for Democrats, backing Democratic House candidates over GOP candidates by a whopping 60 percent to 38 percent margin (up from 55 percent to 44 percent in the 2004 House elections). Subsequent polling undertaken by Pew back in January also indicated a decidedly Democratic and progressive lean to the group they labeled as "generation next." And now a new survey (.pdf) commissioned by The New York Times, CBS News and MTV finds that younger voters look a lot more Democratic and progressive than the electorate as a whole.

Let's start with partisanship. Those polled, who are aged 17 to 29, self-identify as 12 points more Democratic than Republican (35 percent to 23 percent), a margin not terribly larger than the 8-point margin by which all American adults polled recently in a separate survey by CBS News and The Times self identified as Democratic (37 percent to 29 percent). Similarly, the Democrats 22-point lead (54 percent to 32 percent) in the generic presidential ballot question over the Republicans among this subgroup is not much larger than the 16-point margin (49 percent to 33 percent) by which Democrats lead among all adults. But when asked if "there is any candidate you feel enthusiastic about", and if so whom, 18 percent of younger voters volunteered the name Barack Obama and 17 percent volunteered the name Hillary Clinton. For comparison's sake, the candidate mentioned most frequently after those two Democrats was Rudy Giuliani, who was volunteered by just 4 percent. Overall, roughly 36 percent of those younger voters said they were enthusiastic about a particular Democratic candidate while just 11 percent said they were enthusiastic about a particular Republican one. And on the question of which party comes closer to sharing one's moral values, young voters side with the Democrats by a 16-point margin (52 percent to 36 percent) -- a much larger spread than the 5-point margin (46 percent to 41 percent) by which all adults lean towards the Democrats on the question.

When going through issue by issue, it's easy to see why younger voters are more likely to believe that the Democrats are close to them on moral values questions. Just shy of a half of younger voters (44 percent) favor allowing gay marriage versus well under a third (28 percent) of all adults. More than three-in-five younger voters (62 percent) would favor a single-payer healthcare system over the current system while less than half of all adults (47 percent) would. While the poll found that younger voters look more like the rest of America on other issues like abortion, by and large on many of these questions younger voters seem to be significantly more progressive than the general population. It's little wonder, then, that 28 percent of younger voters self-identify as liberal (versus 20 percent among all adults) and just 27 percent self-identify as conservative (versus 32 percent among all adults).

It's certainly true that political and ideological sentiments can change over time -- and even quite rapidly. Along these lines, it's quite possible that the Democrats will take steps that drastically undercut the good will they have gained among younger voters. Nonetheless, there is a real opportunity for the Democrats to tap into the power of the youth vote to achieve a lasting victory, not only this cycle but in elections to come. And the fact that this polling indicates that 58 percent of younger voters are paying attention to the campaign, up from 35 percent at the same point in the 2004 election cycle, indicates that the youth vote is indeed hankering to be tapped into.

Tags: Democrats, Generation Next, young voters (all tags)

Comments

30 Comments

Re: Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

Repost from another diary on the subject:

All of this  is good for the party.  To grow we need to reach into deeper layers than before, call it the extension of Dean's 50-state strategy.  Now it is time to reach women who have never voted in their lives (Clinton,) college kids just voting for the first time (Clinton and Obama,) increased minority participation - Hispanics and African-Americans (Clinton, Obama, Richardson.)    

If we get 18% and 17% of ALL youngins to be "very excited" about our top 2 candidates, that is 35.%  I would venture to say that that 35% between both candidates with "strong" excitement is higher than either party has received ever as far as real excitement amongst that age group is concerned, in any cycle.   It is a GOOD thing for all of us.   These voters, brought in early, have the potential to be Democratic voters for life.  

by georgep 2007-06-26 08:11PM | 0 recs
In the long run...

...it may have been for the best that Dubya was re-elected.

by scaryice 2007-06-26 09:06PM | 0 recs
Re: In the long run...

I saw that argued on a political panel just before the '04 election, that the conservative cycle was winding down and a Bush re-election would expedite that. We certainly would not have benefited so dramatically from a second term midterm in '06, via a Kerry win in '04. Both chambers would likely still be in GOP hands.

Of course, the '04 result had residue like Roberts and Alito.

by Gary Kilbride 2007-06-27 01:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

Let's not forget that in the 2006 election, the youth turned out to vote. People around 20-25 vote at least the same rate as the overall electorate, if not even slightly higher. There was an interesting Op-Ed from former Gov Jeane Shaheen on a study that Harvard did (she's the head of their political center) in the Boston Globe not too long ago that was entirely about how the young adults now vote, big time.

by Ryepower12 2007-06-26 09:11PM | 0 recs
People from 20-25 much less likely to vote

People 20-25 are the least likely to be registered, and of those that are registered, are the least likely to vote.

The increase in young voter turnout from the 2000 low point to 2004 was excellent, but all age groups increased turnout. The 2006 off year election turnout was up among all age groups from 2002, with young voters up more than the average. Still, they are the least likely to vote.

pdf on 2004 turnout

See graph on first page for 2006 turnout (pdf)

There is progress, and Democrats have made gains (see table 4 in the second link), but young voters still have a long way to go to match older groups in turnout.

by IVR Polls 2007-06-27 05:43AM | 0 recs
Re: People from 20-25 much less likely to vote

Our assumptions about the voting patterns of young voters is largely based on the alienated Gen X (born '61-'76) cohort.

Hopefull the Millenial generation (born '77 to 2000) will be much more active in both the voting booth and the campaign trail.

by Sam I Am 2007-06-27 07:46AM | 0 recs
They have been for a while now

People are just starting to take notice.

by BlueDiamond 2007-06-26 09:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

I feel we need to reform the College Democrats into a much more effective organization for youth outreach. For example, the College Republicans are a 527-group with millions of dollars in their coffers. From the College Republicans, they got a slew of prominent people like Karl Rove and Grover Norquist. Finally, we need to reform the CDA to expand our bench of future candidates across the country.

by Blue387 2007-06-26 10:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

no doubt the College Republicans are more effective, more organized and (most importantly) better funded than CDA. part of the problem is that young progressives/liberals/dems are spread all over the place with competing organizations.

re Blue387's point on "future candidates":

you have CDA, but you also have People for American Way's YP4 working to train young progressive candidates, you've got Campus Progress trying to do it's thing, Center for Progressive Leadership, the list goes on.

Republicans have it down to a science: they come to DC for the summer, stay at Heritage for free, have the network built for them and get plenty of support from CollRepublicans, then when it's time to run, everyone knows them and gives up the $$

by zachmarks 2007-06-26 10:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

I agree (and wrote as much here, here and here), but the College Democrats are not a 527.  They are part of the Democratic Party, from which they receive their budget.

The Young Democrats are an independent 527.

by Mike Connery 2007-06-27 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

This poll is obviously good news for the Dems, but the party can't take the youth vote for granted. Great recent work on college affordability, but they've gotta keep it up and they have to focus on young people in 2008.

Here's my blog post on this poll at CampusProgress:
http://www.campusprogress.org/page/commu nity/blog/zachmarks

by zachmarks 2007-06-26 10:28PM | 0 recs
Young & Old alike are fleeing the sinking GOP

My 77 year old mother was a Democrat from 1950's  until the early 1980's then she became a GOP but not anymore she left the GOP because of Bush Jr. she would probably had left much earlier if it wasn't for her watching that damn FOX News but once I returned home to care for her ( she has terminal pancreatic cancer) I had her watching MSNBC & CNN instead of that crap Fox has to offer.
Even conservatives on MSNBC like Tucker & Scarbourough will at least be honest about this pathetic Neo-Con led government but they lie on FOX News and try to cover up Bush's crimes.

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by redstatehatemonitor 2007-06-26 11:03PM | 0 recs
Why Barack Obama is the future

23. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion?

Fav 41 Unfav 19

21. Is your opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Hillary Rodham Clinton
yet to have an opinion?

Fav 41
Unfav 43

With Obama Dems could solidify a new generation of hardcore Democratic voters. With Hillary that opportunity will be missed.

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 12:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama is the future

I disagree.  My initial dislike of Hillary came from her abysmal performance on the daily show.  After seeing her do much better lately my rating of her has gone up.

In other words Hillary has a lot of negatives among this crowd, but they are soft because they are probably not based on too much really.  

by sterra 2007-06-27 01:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama is the future

Hopefully you are right, but there seems to be something about Hillary's personality that turns people off (including me at times). She just doesn't seem genuine or warm.

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 02:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama is the future

I agree, a lot of Clinton's support especially in this group is name recognition and affiliation with Bill Clinton. Obama peels away Hill's support without even a hard sell. She certainly can't be dismissed but she can be overtaken. This is still very, very early in the campaign.

by jazzyjay 2007-06-27 08:35AM | 0 recs
Abortion

It is interesting to note that while young voters are more liberal on almost every social issue than the elder population they are less so when it comes to abortion.

What this tells me is that progressives are wrong to suppose that pro-life is about prejudice, stupidity or ignorance. The pro-life position is intellectually and morally well founded, whether you agree with or not (I disagree though I am uncomfortable with abortions).  

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 12:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Abortion

I think that it just shows that the rest of the arguments were argued more effectively.  Abortion could be as well but it is more often let slide because of the hot topic nature of it.

by sterra 2007-06-27 01:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Abortion

Interesting point, but note that there are still much academic/philosophical debate on abortion but no debate on gay marriage (opposition to gay marriage cannot be intellectually defended). The problem with the pro-choice position is that it seems to accept murder granted that a fetus is a human being.

As I see it pro-choice advocates can reply that

1. A fetus is not a human being, or a human person, and therefore abortion is not murder

  1. Even if abortion is murder it is less bad than forcing a woman to give birth
  2. Abortions cannot be outlawed but will be performed whether legal or not, and less safe.

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 02:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Abortion

2. Would be better described as saying that abortion is not murder for the same reason you not giving your kidney to some dying person is not murder.  

I would liken it to the difference in acceptance between homosexuality and transsexuality.  There are less people willing to represent transsexuals and people who have had abortions and thus people have less personal experience on the matter.

I think it really just boils down to that.

by sterra 2007-06-27 03:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Abortion

I think we get farther by saying the issue on abortion is who decides, the government or the individual. Maybe we can all agree that some women make this difficult choice for econmic reasons; they feel they cannot provide for the child. They may make a different choice if the social and economic enviroment were less hostile to raising children. Abortions went down in the Clinton era because there was more opportunity (jobs, childcare options, school opportunities). With more hopelessness in the poorer communities people are less likely to want to add to their mysery index by having more children. In the culture that only seems to care about life from conception to birth, you have more people choosing to not go on with the pregnancy. People who believe that babies are a blessing and abortion is a bad thing, are not going to be persuaded by dismissive remarks that seem to devalue life.

by jazzyjay 2007-06-27 08:59AM | 0 recs
Two thoughts...

First, good thing for the Dems they are growing replacements because many of us life long Democrats are getting sick and tired of what we see as weak and corporate owned votes. Second point is that Youth are more liberal because they are still too young to realize their mortality.  They will moderate, but they will never be conservatives - thank god.

by dkmich 2007-06-27 12:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Young Voters Becoming Even More Democratic?

As always, the plural of anecdote is not data.

The day after the 2006 election I had a student who was exhausted. I asked him why. He told me that he had a large group of student friends over to watch the election results. They didn't leave until after 3:00 a.m. He then told me, of the 20 or so people at his apartment only 4 had voted for Kerry - the rest had voted for dubya.

I've noticed a change in that dynamic.

Some of this may have something to do with decreased support for higher education on the part of our republican dominated state legislature (and the resultant increases in tuition).

They are also of service age. They've been thinking "Why am I here now, and not in Iraq?" The grotesque failures of dubya, his administration, and the then republican controlled Congress are now apparent to them. Many don't like the thought of going there. I haven't had the opportunity to hand out a DD-4 in a long while, asking, "why are you still here if you support the war?"

Stem cells.

by Michael Bersin 2007-06-27 02:54AM | 0 recs
Note: Poll didn't include Edwards

only Clinton and Obama

by jsamuel 2007-06-27 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Note: Poll didn't include Edwards

No, incorrect. The question appeared to be an open-ended one in which respondents volunteered the names Clinton and Obama (17 percent and 18 percent, respectively) significantly more often than they did Edwards (1 percent). Favorables and unfavorables on all three were asked as well.

by Jonathan Singer 2007-06-27 08:46AM | 0 recs
iraq?

what you and the nyt and others seem to be overlooking is the fact that young people are more optimistic than the population as a whole that the u.s. will succeed in iraq. what explains this?

by zachmarks 2007-06-27 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: iraq?

You answered your own question: "young people are more optimistic than the population as a whole".  This is a general statement that is always true and will always be true; Iraq is just a special case having nothing to do with politics per se.  Apparently, this was even true during Viet Nam.

by Mark Matson 2007-06-27 10:54AM | 0 recs
Obama's "Likely Voter" Problem

Despite all the great discussion, no one seems to be reporting on this little fact that made it into the CBS story but is no where to be found in the New York Times artice:

Among those who plan to vote in the Democratic primaries, 29 percent are enthusiastic about Clinton and 26 percent about Obama.

Yeah, among likely caucus/primary going young voters, Clinton is beating out Obama in this poll.  It's within the margin of error, but seriously - this is counter to the conventional wisdom of the '08 narrative thus far.

Earlier this week (on Future Majority and here on MyDD), I wrote about the Horse Race and the Youth Vote narrative.  In that post, I noted that Barack was leading among young voters, but Clinton was nipping his heels, despite lacking a visible youthroots movement.  I speculated that maybe those numbers were just smoke and mirrors - reflections of her huge name recognition.   This poll adds more weight to the theory that Clinton may be just as much in the youth vote race as Obama.  

Obama's campaign rests on a high youth turnout to negate Clinton's advantages in other areas.  If Hillary is pulling even among young voters, and her supporters are more likely to turnout, what does that mean for the Obama campaign?  What does it mean for the youth vote narrative in the media?

This certainly casts the New York Times story in doubt, which Adam Nagourney ended with this conclusion:

More important, though, at least for Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama is the impression this group has of them. In the poll, 43 percent of respondents said they held an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, a number that reflects the tide of resistance she faces nationwide. By contrast, only 19 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama.

Convenient that he left out the one piece of information from the poll that disputed his conclusion.

by Mike Connery 2007-06-27 11:10AM | 0 recs
At the polls registration

The ability to register at the polls is a big factor in turnout of the youngest eligibles in States where it's allowed. Not so popular with Dem establishmernts tho, as it can benefit outsiders in Primaries.

by benmasel 2007-06-27 01:44PM | 0 recs
Student Loans: how the democrats can win young

voters.  I know few people in the 19 to 29 age bracket who don't have student loans.  It seems lately I keep reading about student loan scandals and how schools are ripping off students.  It is worth noting that the NY Times poll shows that young people believe that they will be worse off than their parents.  When I look at student debt rising and the ever increasing price of a college education, I think that we as Americans are really putting the next generation in terrible position.  Not only will young people be stuck with the bills for our current spending, they are wallowing in debt. The student loans are debt that can't be discharged by bankruptcy so it will stay with them.  I was reading reviews for Sicko and Michael Moore apparently makes the claim that corporate america is burdening these young americans with debt so they will never be able to speak out.  Maybe I am being cynical but if the republicans can create Medicare Part D to woo seniors, isn't there some kind large scale of debt forgiveness programs or system to cap tuition rates.  I know candidates, like Edwards, are floating a number of programs, but none seems to me to be that large scale or address those who are already in debt. I think a serious, comprehensive program that directly addresses these issues might make them democrats for a long, long time.  

by tiberius 2007-06-27 02:30PM | 0 recs

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