Yet More Indication of a Republican Excitement Gap?
by Jonathan Singer, Fri May 04, 2007 at 03:56:00 PM EDT
I've tried to track the perceived excitement gap among the Republican base, which seems intuitively true given the weakness of the GOP presidential field, using data from a range of polling. For instance, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from late last month showed Republicans significantly less happy with their presidential candidates than the Democrats are with theirs and Americans generally leaning towards an unnamed Democrat for President over an unnamed Republican by an 18-point margin. A Hotline/Diageo poll (.pdf) released just today seems to confirm these findings, with the Democrats holding 19-point lead in the generic presidential ballot question.
But for all of this specific data from political polling, perhaps an even more interesting measure of the relative Republican and Democratic excitement at this point comes from the number of people who tuned into the presidential debates this week and last. According to Atrios, while more than 2.2 million viewers tuned into last week's Democratic debate on MSNBC, just about 1.7 million watched last night's Republican debate, which also aired on MSNBC. As Atrios notes correctly, given that about 28 percent more people tuned into the Democratic debate than the Republican one, "If I were a crack cable news programmer I'm sure I'd learn something from all of this."
Now one might stipulate that Democrats are more primed to watch MSNBC than Republicans or that Republicans are more likely to watch Fox News than MSNBC for a debate. One might even suggest that the timing of the Republican debate -- beginning about an hour later than the Democratic debate on the same day a week later -- affected the relative ratings. And one might even argue that the apparent difference in ratings is small enough to be effectively meaningless.
Even keeping all of this in mind, the fact that more than a quarter more people watched the Democratic debate than the Republican one is still telling, to me, if not for the reason Atrios lays out then for the implication that Democrats are more engaged, and thus more excited, than are Republicans at this stage -- a situation that, if true, could place a serious handicap on the Republicans' chances at all levels in the 2008 elections.
Tags: 2008, Republicans (all tags)









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