Yet More Indication of a Republican Excitement Gap?

I've tried to track the perceived excitement gap among the Republican base, which seems intuitively true given the weakness of the GOP presidential field, using data from a range of polling. For instance, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from late last month showed Republicans significantly less happy with their presidential candidates than the Democrats are with theirs and Americans generally leaning towards an unnamed Democrat for President over an unnamed Republican by an 18-point margin. A Hotline/Diageo poll (.pdf) released just today seems to confirm these findings, with the Democrats holding 19-point lead in the generic presidential ballot question.

But for all of this specific data from political polling, perhaps an even more interesting measure of the relative Republican and Democratic excitement at this point comes from the number of people who tuned into the presidential debates this week and last. According to Atrios, while more than 2.2 million viewers tuned into last week's Democratic debate on MSNBC, just about 1.7 million watched last night's Republican debate, which also aired on MSNBC. As Atrios notes correctly, given that about 28 percent more people tuned into the Democratic debate than the Republican one, "If I were a crack cable news programmer I'm sure I'd learn something from all of this."

Now one might stipulate that Democrats are more primed to watch MSNBC than Republicans or that Republicans are more likely to watch Fox News than MSNBC for a debate. One might even suggest that the timing of the Republican debate -- beginning about an hour later than the Democratic debate on the same day a week later -- affected the relative ratings. And one might even argue that the apparent difference in ratings is small enough to be effectively meaningless.

Even keeping all of this in mind, the fact that more than a quarter more people watched the Democratic debate than the Republican one is still telling, to me, if not for the reason Atrios lays out then for the implication that Democrats are more engaged, and thus more excited, than are Republicans at this stage -- a situation that, if true, could place a serious handicap on the Republicans' chances at all levels in the 2008 elections.

Tags: 2008, Republicans (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

Re: Advertisers?

For years now the obvious counter to Fox News Channel was to go left but CNN headed conspicuously right and MSNBC, with the exception of Keith Olberman, also followed suit (maybe a bit sluggishly).  The ionly explanation I can fathom is that the networks feel pressure from advertisers to go right.  After all, the reason papers cover "business" news so exhaustively and expensively is not reader demand but advertiser demand.  I use the quote marks because, compared to thirty years ago, business news has become stock market news.  There is far less coverage about actual business but far more about stocks.

New products, market trends, nada.  Stock market movement and earnings per share?  Lots and lots.  No wonder we "make nothing."  Everything is generic (particularly in the post tech era market).  Ever look at a list of the largest companies in the US?  In the 1950s and 1960s the list was dominated by makers of things (often food and other consumer goods).  Now it's all stores, banks, and insurance companies.

by David Kowalski 2007-05-05 04:47AM | 0 recs
Newsweek's new poll :

"With 38 percent of Republicans dissatisfied with their party's field, things could get interesting [...] Of the much smaller 14 percent of Democrats who are dissatisfied with their candidates"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18505030/sit e/newsweek/page/3/

by Ramo 2007-05-05 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Newsweek's new poll :

Ya beat me to it.  Doesn't that just say it all?

by RT 2007-05-05 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Excitement Gap?

[blockquote]"If I were a crack cable news programmer I'm sure I'd learn something from all of this."[/blockquote]

Yes, but if he were a crack cable news programmer, what he'd learn from this is that he clearly needs to shill harder for the Republican candidates.  Making sure to call them "regal" and contrast that directly with the Dem field was a good start, but surely we can come up with some more stories about Edwards' hair.  And they can surely point out that Clinton is a woman and Obama is black in a few more subtly disparraging ways.  And isn't it about time for a McCain bio-pic about his heroic days as a soldier?  And maybe another "9/11" hagiography for Rudy?

by libdevil 2007-05-05 09:02AM | 0 recs
Why the hugegap between non-named and named polls?
Jon Stewart has pointed out a number of times the tremendous irony that unnamed Democrats beat the named ones every time.  It's troubling that the named head-to-head polls all lean in a conservative direction (albeit anyone other than Guiliani and McCain are crushed, and thankfully the public has begun to sour on its age-old love affair with McCain.)
Does anyone have any thoughts about why this is?  
These kinds of polls that show unnamed Democrats outperforming any named one just shows to me that voters are looking for an opposition candidate but can't seem to stand any of the ones the Democrats put forward.  In this kind of atmosphere, someone like Hillary Clinton seems like exactly the wrong kind of candidate to put forward.
by psericks 2007-05-05 09:42AM | 0 recs
tv viewership...

As far as the viewership of the debates goes, I think part of it has been the overwhelming media attention on the Democratic side.  The Republican primary seems at least to me to have received far less attention.  I guess because the first woman/first black, Clinton-old-guard vs. Obama storyline is more captivating.  I'm not sure all the attention is a good thing.  All of our family quarrels are being aired, with little attention to the missteps on the Republican side (Romney: "I hunt... vermin" or 'Why hunt for Osama bin Laden').

by psericks 2007-05-05 09:44AM | 0 recs
Indication of a Republican Excitement Gap?

as far as the excitement gap.   It is interesting to note that if you look at how often the names of the major candidates are being searched on the search engines, the dems are being searched about 5 times more often.   This would seem to indicate greater "interest" in the dem candidates.   More in my diary here.   I'm  tracking this information weekly and will be posting a diary monthly.  

by onemadson 2007-05-05 10:36AM | 0 recs
Yet More Indication of a Republican Excitement Gap

Another possibility for the difference in the number of viewers is that Republicans are interested in hearing all sides and tuned into both debates whereas Democrats don't want to hear all sides so they didn't watch the Republican debates.

I also find it interesting the Republicans are willing to go on MSNBC for a debate whereas Democrats aren't willing to go on FOX. To me, this shows that Republicans are willing to deal with tough questions from the other side (because I consider MSNBC to lean to the Democratic side) whereas Democrats are afraid of the tough questions from the other side.

by jmnewkirk 2007-05-16 05:57PM | 0 recs

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