Numbers Open Thread

I am stuck in the Atlanta airport, which is going to make me late for a conference I am attending this weekend. However, there is the added side benefit of having a little extra time to blog. Here are some stats that caught my eye this afternoon:
  • My high-end national polling average stands at 34.0%--Clinton, 29.7%--Obama, 18.3%--Edwards, and 18.0% Other / Unsure. That is a record low in the high-end estimate for both Clinton and Others / Unsure, while it is a record high for both Obama and Edwards. The low-end average currently stands at Clinton--32.8%, Obama--25.6%, Edwards--16.6%, and Others / Unsure 25.0%.

  • Chris Mathews loves him some Romney. Check out how much more time Romney had to speak last night compared to other Republican candidates:
    Candidate: Questions asked / Speaking time
    1. Mitt Romney: 19 / 10 min 47 sec
    2. Rudy Giuliani: 17 / 8 min 19 sec
    3. Sam Brownback: 15 / 7 min 26 sec
    4. Mike Huckabee: 15 / 7 min 23 sec
    5. Jim Gilmore: 12 / 6 min 58 sec
    6. Tom Tancredo: 15q / 6 min 48 sec
    7. Tommy Thompson: 13q / 6 min 26 sec
    8. Ron Paul: 13q / 6 min 20 sec
    9. John McCain: 16q / 6 min 7 sec
    10. Duncan Hunter: 12q / 5 min 53 sec
  • In wake of Florida's obnoxious power grab, Iowa now seems certain to move to January 7th, or even earlier.
    The Florida Legislature's decision Thursday to move the state's presidential primary to Jan. 29 makes it more likely that Iowa's leadoff caucuses will be forced earlier - within a week of New Year's Day, Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic Party insiders said.

    Iowa's caucuses are tentatively set for Jan. 14, with New Hampshire's primary set to follow eight days later.

    "I would not be surprised if we have to move ourselves to Jan. 7," said former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Rob Tully.
    It is starting to seem like the primary calendar will go : Iowa on 1/7, New Hampshire on 1/15, Nevada on 1/19, South Carolina on 1/22, Florida and Michigan on 1/29, and Super Duper Tuesday on February 5th This isn't too bad, as it stretches out the process somewhat, but I still think my proposed calendar with Iowa and New Hampshire on December 10th and 18th respectively would be the best solution. As usual, most problems wouldbe solved if people just listened to me. No matter what happens, I hope that Iowa and Hampshire will stop their privileged, anti-democratic whining and just set their dates once and for all. I just don't know how much longer I can stand to listen to Iowa and New Hampshire officials complain, threaten, and explain why residents of those two states are the master race before I begin projectile vomiting.

  • New Diageo / Hotline general election matchups:
    Clinton 45% McCain 45%
    Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
    Clinton 50% Romney 35%

    Obama 48% McCain 37%
    Obama 48% Giuliani 39%
    Obama 54% Romney 25%

    Edwards 48% McCain 37%
    Edwards 47% Giuliani 41%
    Edwards 52% Romney 26%
    Clearly, Diageo and Quinnipiac are not polling the same nation.
This is an open thread. Tell the world what is on your mind.

Tags: Open Threads, polls, Primary calendar, stats (all tags)



Re: Numbers Open Thread

When they do head to head polling, they aren't giving us the breakdown of Democrats, Republicans, and Independants.  So this really doesn't tell us how people feel at all without that breakdown.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-05-04 12:58PM | 0 recs
I think they do

At least Quinnipiac's breakdown is here: aseID=1055

by John DE 2007-05-04 01:09PM | 0 recs
Why Romney Spoke More

It seemed to me that Wallace's mistake was not loving Romney and letting him rip, it was always starting a new question at the head of the line where Romney always fielded it first, and then gave long, full answers.  Brownback was near there, too, and he got a lot of time.  Ditto for Huckabee and Gilmore.  By the time the same question got a few places down the line, Wallace was cutting people off or asking for a show of hands.  A graph of the minutes by position on the stage would generally show this, I am confident.

Brian Williams seemed, more appropriately, to start his questions in random places or to ask fewer questions for multiple candidates to answer.

by Arthurkc 2007-05-04 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Romney Spoke More

Bingo. Repeatedly starting on the end where Romney was also could have hurt him since he had less time to think of an answer. Bur the questions were easy.

by demondeac 2007-05-04 05:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

   Wow, those are some amazing match-up numbers.  Only Giuliani makes it into the 40s against Edwards, and no one makes it into the 40s against Obama.  I like it.

by cilerder86 2007-05-04 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Which just goes to show how pointless the polls are at this point... or rather looking at polls and either freaking out OR saying it shows your candidate has an easy victory as certain supporters of a certain candidate that starts with a C ends with an N and has LINTO in the middle.

by yitbos96bb 2007-05-04 06:26PM | 0 recs

I think they are polling the nation I live in. Those numbers make the most sense to me of any I've seen.

by michael in chicago 2007-05-04 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Diageo

  It's a nation in which everyone laughs at Mr. Magoo, I mean John McCain...

by cilerder86 2007-05-04 01:08PM | 0 recs
Conference in Georgia

I hope there will be a blogger ethics panel at this conference you're going to.  There're so many bloggers that are being paid to work these days, it's just ridiculous!  I mean, they're not even credentialed journalists!!

by Fran for Dean 2007-05-04 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Conference in Georgia

Bloggers aren't credentialed??  Oh my gosh, I've been reading things by people who don't have a little card issued by some bureaucrat or committee in DC??  The horror!

by howardpark 2007-05-04 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Conference in Georgia

I think he was being facetious.

by wiretapp 2007-05-05 10:52AM | 0 recs
on primary dates being pushed earlier...

do the states not realize that your vote counts just as much if its cast in january as if it were cast in june?

i mean, i understand the theory that earlier states have more influence, but if every state moves up (as is happening now) wouldn't that just negate whatever influence gain there was to be had?

hell, we might as well just have a national primary day and end the childish bickering and posturing between the states.

and since all the primaries are moving up, is there any chance(absent a constitutional amendment) at all we could move the general up? i would love to end shrub's presidency as quickly as possible.

by freaktown 2007-05-04 01:11PM | 0 recs
not really

My state voted in June 2004.  Kerry and Kucinch were the only 'major' candidates even on the ballot.  Now that we are on feb 5, my vote will be very minor but not totally meaningless.

by John DE 2007-05-04 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: not really

I think we were march or april.  The only ones left on the ballot were Edwards, Kerry and Kucinich... I voted for Edwards since Clark was off the ballot out of protest to the process

by yitbos96bb 2007-05-04 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

I want to vote in the republican primary for Mitt Romney after seeing those numbers. Anyone still thinking Hillary's the best nominee?

by nevadadem 2007-05-04 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

I'll make a fearless political prediction right now...a MASSIVE snowstorm the night of the Iowa Caucuses in early January, 2008.  The campaign that can shovel best and push cars & vans out of ditches the best will win.  I think this gives Chicago & New York native Clinton a big advantage (though her snow skills may have gotten rusty in Arkansas & DC) over Carolina John Edwards & tri-continental Barack Obama.  Before the Obama & Edwards camps get too worked up -- just kidding on the "advantage" but I'm serious about the snowstorm prediction.

by howardpark 2007-05-04 01:24PM | 0 recs
and the great result

will be that, like golf, the first primary will from then on be in Hawaii.

by John DE 2007-05-04 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Apparently you have never been in Chicago during a snowstorm.  You have to shovel your car out from the snow and the snow plowed snow thrown on top of it.  Then you put out little cones or lawn chairs to save your place until the snow melts, as is the custom... punishable by ass kicking from the guy whose spot you stole.  So I'd say advantage Obama... they'll bring a bunch of people from the Neighborhoods to Iowa, shovel people out, put orange cones with Obama's logo on them and give each car and Obama head antenna topper as they drive to vote him to victory.  :-)

by yitbos96bb 2007-05-04 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

random predictions about the weather are, at best, mildly amusing, and at worst, pointless.

by eddersen1 2007-05-04 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

These numbers make sense and fit with the overall trend over the last couple of months. Obama running a bit better than Edwards but within the MOE. Both running about 5 points ahead of HRC.

I am curious if anybody has an explanation for the bizarre numbers in the Survey USA poll yesterday?  Were these numbers just a result of no voter screen and robo polls, or is there some other explanation?  I know some of you are bigger polling wonks than I am.  Thanks.

by upper left 2007-05-04 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Which poll? The debate viewwer poll?

by demondeac 2007-05-04 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Wow.  The campaign will wind down in Iowa for the caucuses amidst the post-Christmas bargains.  Gets cold there, though in February and March too of course.

by Bruce Godfrey 2007-05-04 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

In the Diageo / Hotline numbers Clinton is the only Democrat who scores on the issues with voters leading on 3 issues and split with McCain and Giuliani on national security issues.  

With regard to key issues facing the country, Hillary Clinton beats all other 2008 front-runners on the
economy, healthcare, and the environment. On the issue of the War in Iraq and terrorism, voters are split
between Clinton, Giuliani and McCain.

by robliberal 2007-05-04 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Rob you just proved the point of everyone that beleives Hillary is the worst nominee....

The problem is that Hillary wins on the "issues" but people don't like her and that's why she's such a bad choice, that's why any GOP opponent consistantly gets thier highest ratings against her, that's why the entire Republican establishment  would unite in a hartbeat to beat her, more than against anyone else, she is too polarizing and it has almost nothing to do with issues.

by nevadadem 2007-05-04 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread
Voters will vote on how they think a candidate handles issues. Clinton leads on issues followed by 2 of the top GOP prospects. None of the other Democrats come even close which means a general election campaign against McCain or Guliani by Obama or Edwards would be a very uphill battle.
That is evident in the SurveyUSA polls this week as well.
by robliberal 2007-05-04 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

45% of voters associate themselves with issues, 55% of voters associate themselves with a candidate.  Hillary needs to appeal to people through being interesting, not just being 'strong on the issues'.  Having been in the public eye for over 16 years, she has had all the interesting sucked out of her.  

That's where Edwards beats her.  He's managing both substance and interest.  He's 2nd in interest when it comes to Obama though.  

When Obama lays down the substance we'll see what happens.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-05-04 03:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

If people voted on issues, Mondale would've won.

by jallen 2007-05-04 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Mondale was running against a popular incumbent president. It was a race no Democrat could have won.

by robliberal 2007-05-04 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Mondale would have beat Reagan?  On what planet?  

Another candidate who would have won "on the issues" was Al Gore...of course he did win...but it should not have been close.

It's almost absurd to divorce "the issues" & the personality.  Real voters vote for real people not a pile of position papers.  I think Obama's strength is going to be both his substance & on the issues.  Obama just has a lot more upside potential on personality/leadership style, than the Senator from New York.

by howardpark 2007-05-04 03:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Polls showed peple agreed with Mondale on the issues, but would vote for Reagan.  It's been that way for Democrats for a while.

by jallen 2007-05-04 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

they never have that's why Gore and Kerry are not president despite winning issue based polls. The hotline election polls show the problem,s Hillary would have but it's not the trial heats that are the really bad news, it's the likeability/favorability numbers nothing else  is nearly as good of an indicator of a candidates potential vote, dems routinely have voters agreeing with them on issues but they desert us on "percieved" personality quams, Kerry's "French elitism" or Gore's exagerations ect....Hillary is such a polarizing figure for both activist democrats and idependant voters not to mention Republicans that the needle she's have to thread is just too much of a risk, she motivates her opposition far more than her base.

by nevadadem 2007-05-04 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Both could won with slightly different campaigns. Gore got the most votes but lost because of Florida. If he had ignored the DC insiders and put more states in play he would have won.

Kerry did much the same things and listened to the DC crowd who said to abandon about half of the states. If he had put more states in play that may have taken enough GOP resources from OH that he could have won.

After 6 years of Bush experience and issues will be even more of a factor in 2008 than 2000 and 2004.

by robliberal 2007-05-04 03:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Had Kerry responded to the Swift Boat attacks quickly instead of ignoring them for a month, he would have probably won as well.

Agree with you on Gore... had he put more resources into Tennessee or New Hampshire, he would have won as well.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-05-04 06:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Until Obama and Edwards achieve 100% recognition across the country, the head to head matchups for the general mean nothing.

Hillary is at 99% recognition.  Obama in the 70's and Edwards in the high 60's, at least according to a poll published ten days ago.

by samueldem 2007-05-04 04:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

I can't believe that Edwards is only at 60%... that doesn't seem possible... I remember polls a few months ago that had him in the 80's.

by yitbos96bb 2007-05-04 06:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread


John Edwards (FORMER) Vice Presidential Candidate with only a 60 % recognition? Who's ass was that lie pulled out of?

The least known candidate is still Barack obama which means , once the nation knows who he is, it's OVER for all others.



by ObamaEdwards2008 2007-05-05 05:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Could it be that the paradigm shift is starting to catch up with the actual candidates?

by spirowasright 2007-05-04 05:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Why the hell does IOWA HAVE to move to January 7?  Because they are just as egotistical and obnoxious as Florida.  What Florida did is wrong, but now Iowa moving earlier is just ridiculous.  Iowa and New Hampshire need to be taken down a few notches; they are some of the least representive, most white bread states in the country and should not wield the power they wield.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-05-04 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

I like the idea of some of the larger and more diverse states having a voice. California for example has 38 million people.

by robliberal 2007-05-04 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

What I would do if I could choose, I would break the country down into Five sections of Ten.  Then rotate them every primary.  Five states a week, for ten weeks.  Then you don't frontload or backload, and everyone gets a chance to be in the front.... Every 40 years.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-05-04 08:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Numbers Open Thread

Like it or not, it's part of the DNC rules.  Iowa is the first caucus state and New Hampshire is the first primary state a week later.  Lobby the DNC if you don't like it, but it's not going to change this election cycle.

by minvis 2007-05-05 08:09AM | 0 recs
this primary schedule is awful

As a precinct captain, I hope that Iowa does not move up to January 7.

You can't do any serious GOTV work during the week between Christmas and New Year's. People will be returning home on January 1 or 2, or going back to work, or recovering from holiday stress. It's a hectic time, and I don't imagine it being a time that people would welcome phone calls or door knocks from volunteers trying to get them to vote.

My husband pointed out that very few college students would be back in time for the Iowa caucuses if they were held on January 7. That's got to be bad news for Barack Obama, but possibly also for John Edwards, since he is likely to have strong support on college campuses as well.

Of course, even on January 14 there may be quite a few college students who are not back from their winter breaks.

I'm sympathetic to Chris Bowers' idea to move Iowa and New Hampshire to December 10 and 18, but that would be hard from a GOTV perspective too.

People get so busy in December with shopping, holiday parties, kids' programs and recitals. I think it would be even harder to talk marginal voters into coming out for an hour on a Monday night.

Whatever reforms are enacted after this cycle, I think the earliest caucus or primary should not be held before February. When I first attended the Iowa caucuses in 1988, it was in mid-February.

The average voter is not going to start focusing on the campaign until after the holiday season. It's a disaster to have the campaign heating up during this time.

by desmoinesdem 2007-05-04 10:03PM | 0 recs
Re: this primary schedule is awful

With more states moving up Iowa and NH might as well do it this summer or fall before cold weather. That would bring about a lot better turnout.

by robliberal 2007-05-05 08:00AM | 0 recs
Re: this primary schedule is awful

Desmoinesdem, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the University of Iowa students do not come back to class until January 21st.  At least if the caucus was on the original date, some students may be back the previous week, but 2 weeks before.  You can forget about it.

I think you're right as well.  This would hurt Obama the most and to a lesser extent Edwards.  At least, Edwards is strong in other counties besides the college towns to offset a possible low turnout in the college towns.  I think this would be a net gain for Clinton, if this is rolled back another week.

by minvis 2007-05-05 08:14AM | 0 recs
I hope Iowa and NH DO

move, because to do so would be to highlight the complete arrogance of these two States.

It is more than absurd to hold a vote that close to Christmas, and nearly 10 MONTHS before the general election.

Any why are they doing this?  To keep a strangelhold on the presidential election process.

by fladem 2007-05-05 07:03PM | 0 recs

Clinton    51%
Obama    39%

Clinton    57%
Edwards  38%

Obama    49%
Edwards  41% e/newsweek/

by ChicagoDude 2007-05-05 11:28AM | 0 recs

I saw this poll and saw that all of our three candidates beat the republicans which is good.

I looked at the internals of this poll and found this:

Democrats 36 %
Independents 35%
Republicans 22%

This is just not accurate. Most polls are showing a 5-6.5%  difference between Dem's and Republicans not 14% LIKE THIS POLL. When I see things like this, I tend to dis-credit the entire poll.

I want us to win, but I have to call out bull shit polls when I see them even if they favor us.

by BDM 2007-05-05 04:20PM | 0 recs


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