Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State polls are all May 4-26. Last update: May 29, 5:15 pm eastern
StateEst. Date# PollsClintonObamaEdwardsRichardson
Net Avail CashMar 31Q1$23.4M$17.7M$9.6M$5.0M
IowaJan 07524.0%20.8%27.0%8.0%
New HampshireJan 15231.0%20.5%16.5%9.5%
NevadaJan 190--------
South CarolinaJan 22230.5%24.5%23.0%--
FloridaJan 29335.3%18.7%20.0%--
National--HighFeb 05437.5%24.5%14.5%--
National--LowFeb 05535.0%23.2%13.2%--

No Nevada polls have been conducted in the last four weeks, although Clinton has led by double-digits in every Nevada poll to date. Also, Michigan has been removed from the table, since it appears they will not go on January 29th after all. One New Hampshire poll and one Florida poll conducted in the last four weeks were not included in the averages because the trial heat questions in those polls only gave Clinton, Obama and Edwards as options. One national poll conducted in the last two weeks was also left out for that same reason. Finally, the dates for the primaries and caucuses are not fixed, but they are my current best guesses.

This is an open thread. Tell the world what is on your mind.

Tags: Democrats, Open Threads, polls, President 2008 (all tags)

Comments

23 Comments

Great Snapshot

Keep up the good work. The grid is great, by far the easiest to read breakdown I've seen. Would make a great widget.

by Benstrader 2007-05-29 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

Is American Research Group being considered an Outlier by anyone in terms of state polling?  I just saw 3 polls that have Obama significantly behind Edwards and Clinton in the early 3 states.  

by Socks The Cat 2007-05-29 02:25PM | 0 recs
ARG's Iowa polls don't tend to match up with...

...other Iowa polls -- including Clinton's own internal Iowa polls, apparently, given that her top strategist recently advised her to give up on Iowa. ARG doesn't seem to screen tightly enough for likely caucus-goers, who are few and far between.

Polling for primaries should be somewhat easier than polling for caucuses (far more people participate in primaries, for one thing), so I'd put a little more weight on ARG's polls for New Hampshire and South Carolina.

by MeanBoneII 2007-05-29 02:39PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG's Iowa polls

Iowa's aggregate is down to a measly 3% in Iowa.  Obviously, other polls are seeing a major tightening in the state as well.    

by georgep 2007-05-29 03:01PM | 0 recs
Thanks to ARG, mostly.

The Des Moines Register's poll has Clinton in third place, 8 points back.

Obviously her own Iowa polls didn't look too good either, otherwise her team wouldn't be thinking about giving up on the state.

by MeanBoneII 2007-05-29 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Thanks to ARG, mostly.

Allegedly. It's a leaked memo, there's nothing to suggest that a) anybody in her team bar the author of said memo thought withdrawal to be a bad idea or b) it wasn't just a device to drop expectations.

Right now, yes, ARG looks to be overestimating Clinton's support. But the test to see whether this is true is more polls, not cross-reference to some memo whose motives remain cloudy.

by Englishlefty 2007-05-29 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Thanks to ARG, mostly.

We had already seen a steady tightening of Iowa polls before todays' ARG poll with Edwards barely hanging onto a 5% lead - down from 8 to 9%.

Good point about the lowered expectations game.  They would not have staffed and opened TEN offices in Iowa if they did not want to go full bore there.  

by georgep 2007-05-29 04:24PM | 0 recs
Hillary has lost ground in the Register's polls.

She went from 2nd place and 4 points behind Edwards in the previous Des Moines Register poll, to 3rd place and 8 points back in the latest Register poll. She's losing ground, which obviously has unnerved her top strategist.

The fact that they considered and rejected the idea of giving up on Iowa (this early) shows that they understand just how devastating that decision would be to her chances.

by MeanBoneII 2007-05-29 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary has

So, you are staking your lot on ONE poll?   Are you even aware what Margin of Error means?  In the DMR poll the margin of error is 5%.  That means that the polls could conceivably be wrong by 5% in any direction.   There goes your difference from 4 to 8%, it is actually conceivable that within the margin of error Clinton actually GAINED a point in the second Desmoines Register poll.

That is why you DON'T rely on one poll (a foolish thing to do) but go with the aggregate of ALL polls.  Therefore, I don't stupidly make the claim that Clinton is actually AHEAD by 6% in Iowa, based on this one poll, but that the polls have tightened to a 3% Edwards lead, which seems right to me.

by georgep 2007-05-29 05:38PM | 0 recs
The Register's pollster has a proven track record.

The Register's poll nailed the Kerry and Edwards surge to the top on the eve of the Iowa caucus in 2004. ARG's poll in 2000 had Bush leading in New Hampshire on the weekend before the primary, and McCain ended up winning by double digits. And ARG is based in New Hampshire.

But by all means, give ARG's Iowa caucus poll equal weight with the Register's Selzer poll if you wish.

As for MOE, that does indeed work both ways, which means Edwards' lead could over Clinton could be as high as 18 in the Register's poll. Chances are, though, that it's between 6 and 10 points.

Personally, I like the idea that some people will believe the polls showing Clinton leading in Iowa (even if the Clinton campaign itself clearly doesn't believe it).

by MeanBoneII 2007-05-29 06:28PM | 0 recs
Re: The Register's

Hey, if you want to believe that Edwards is ahead by a mile, go right ahead.  I go with the aggregate, since OTHER polls have shown the race tightening a lot as well.   I suppose Edwards fans have no choice but to cherry pick only the polls they like and dismiss polls that don't show Edwards doing so well.  

by georgep 2007-05-30 04:07AM | 0 recs
Brilliant strategy.

If the Clinton campaign already feels the need to "lower expectations," they should consider giving up in more states.

by MeanBoneII 2007-05-29 04:36PM | 0 recs
ARG in NH

ARG has a good track record in NH, so I would tend to trust their polls there.

by clarkent 2007-05-29 04:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

Olbermann on Gore:

"...Gore is 50/50 about running."

Gore is on Olbermann right now with a head on interview!

Damn, Gore is looking very very HOT!
Please, please, PLEASE!?

by hazmaq 2007-05-29 04:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

Gore?HOT?Really?

by Kingstongirl 2007-05-29 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

Olberman also mentioned the Zogby poll indicating that Obama is the only  Democratic candidate beating both Guliani AND McCain nationwide.

by BDM 2007-05-29 07:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And

In that one poll.

by jallen 2007-05-29 07:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot
Oh Yes, Very HOT, and Yessssssssss!
In a intellectually stimulating kind of way.
by hazmaq 2007-05-29 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

Bush-Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Clinton, Clinton
That's 28 years folks.

Why not crown them already.  Who needs elections.

by jd2 2007-05-30 03:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

You make NO sense.  We have Democratic elections in this country.  The people decide.  

by georgep 2007-05-30 04:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

And, you are assuming Clinton will win the general election.  THAT is bad for Democrats?  

by georgep 2007-05-30 04:10AM | 0 recs
HillC is going to roll it up early

Thats what it looks like.  It will be lights out even before Super Duper Tuesday.  The polls, the cash, and the support of the center of the party.  

The only guy who can beat her at this point is Edwards.  If he can make some noise by winning Iowa and get some help from labor he may mount a challenge.  

by dpANDREWS 2007-05-30 04:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Democratic Nomination Snapshot

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by dearreader 2007-05-30 05:27AM | 0 recs

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