New Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina Polls
by Chris Bowers, Tue May 29, 2007 at 12:12:18 PM EDT
ARG has some new numbers. For every state, the polls were taken from May 23-26, with 600 likely voters / caucus goers, MoE 4.
I have a hard time accepting that Obama is so low in Iowa, considering that four polls last week showed him with at least twice that amount. I also have a hard time accepting Edwards at 30% in South Carolina, since all seven other polls from the state in the last two months placed him at 21% or less, and well behind Obama. In short, I'm not really sure why ARG polls seem to pick up so much less support for Obama than do other early state polls. Perhaps the ARG polls are just off, as outside of New Hampshire primaries and caucuses are not easy to poll. Perhaps they are identifying a weakness in Obama's coalition: too young, too independent to be considered "likely" voters. Or, perhaps the situation in the early states is far more fluid that we appreciate. Given the large amount of attention every campaign in lavishing on Iowa and New Hampshire, and given the small Democratic primary / caucus electorates of the two states (a combined 400,000 people), about 5% of them probably saw a Democratic candidate in person this past week alone. Perhaps swings like this should be considered normal.
Diarist hat-tip to georgep
| State, Date | Clinton | Edwards | Obama | Richardson | Other / Unsure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa, 5/26 | 31 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 23 |
| Iowa, 4/30 | 23 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 26 |
| NH, 5/26 | 34 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 24 |
| NH, 4/30 | 37 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 20 |
| SC, 5/26 | 34 | 30 | 18 | 1 | 17 |
| SC, 4/30 | 36 | 18 | 24 | 1 | 21 |
I have a hard time accepting that Obama is so low in Iowa, considering that four polls last week showed him with at least twice that amount. I also have a hard time accepting Edwards at 30% in South Carolina, since all seven other polls from the state in the last two months placed him at 21% or less, and well behind Obama. In short, I'm not really sure why ARG polls seem to pick up so much less support for Obama than do other early state polls. Perhaps the ARG polls are just off, as outside of New Hampshire primaries and caucuses are not easy to poll. Perhaps they are identifying a weakness in Obama's coalition: too young, too independent to be considered "likely" voters. Or, perhaps the situation in the early states is far more fluid that we appreciate. Given the large amount of attention every campaign in lavishing on Iowa and New Hampshire, and given the small Democratic primary / caucus electorates of the two states (a combined 400,000 people), about 5% of them probably saw a Democratic candidate in person this past week alone. Perhaps swings like this should be considered normal.
Diarist hat-tip to georgep
Tags: Democrats, Iowa, New Hampshire, polls, President 2008, South Carolina (all tags)
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