How The Iraq Supplemental Will Pass, For Now

Yesterday I was dejected, but today I wanted to get back to fighting. So, this morning, I was fishing around to look for opposition to the new funding bill. MoveOn.org came out against it, and is now urging members to call their representative and tell him or her to vote "no." At first, rather than viewing this as a futile maneuver, I was briefly encouraged, because it seemed possible the bill could be defeated. Out of Iraq Caucus and freshmen opposition seemed to be potentially high:
When House Democratic leaders presented the plan at their weekly caucus meeting, freshmen and members of the Out of Iraq Caucus complained vociferously about the lack of a timeline, according to party aides who were not authorized to discuss the meeting.
While Republican support did not:
Will the plan pass the House without the full support of the Democratic caucus? The Hill reports that if Democrats "are looking for Republican votes, Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.) thinks they can find them. He says he would be surprised if the proposal cannot garner 10 to 15 GOP votes.
Even Pelosi might vote against it:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was so disappointed with the outcome that she said she might vote against the Iraq portion of the package, which will be split into two parts when it comes before the House. "I'm not likely to vote for something that doesn't have a timetable," she said.
I did some quick math. With 433 current members of Congress, start with 232 Democrats, add 10-15 Republican defectors, minus eight progressive Democrats who have consistently refused to vote for any more funding at all, plus eight conservative Democrats who always want a blank check, and you seemingly have a ceiling of 242-247 votes in favor of the bill. With 217 votes needed for passage, it would only require another 26-31 progressive defectors to defeat the bill. Given that 169 Democrats recently voted in favor of a fully funded withdrawal, plus two anti-war reps who didn't vote for withdrawal because they were campaigning for Philly mayor, there was theoretically a pool of as many as 163 Democratic reps who could be pressured to reach the necessary 18-23 votes. And that pool seemed quite ripe:
Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) indicated that just because he has voted for it before does not mean he will vote for it without a timeline.

"Probably not," Nadler said. "If it doesn't have some sort of timeline, it's going to be tough for me to vote for it."

Freshman Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.), who ran against the war and enthusiastically supported the first supplemental and its call for withdrawal, is also wavering. Asked whether he could support the new plan, he shook his head and said, "I don't know."
Now, here is where the disappointment comes in. The leadership has a plan to pass the bill with wide ranging Republican support (emphasis mine):
At a caucus meeting at press time, House Democratic leaders outlined their plan to get around liberal defections. The supplemental spending bill will be brought to the House floor as two amendments to the Senate bill. The first will be President Bush's original Iraq supplemental request. It is expected to pass with the votes of many Republicans and conservative Democrats. The second, a domestic spending bill to include money for children's health insurance, Gulf Coast hurricane relief, minimum wage and other items. They will be combined procedurally without a vote and sent to the Senate.
Ugh. This makes defeat of the bill appear quite unlikely. I don't know how many Republicans will vote for the bill, but it will probably be quite a few. At this point, racking up as many progressive "no" votes to the first supplemental request now appears to be the best we can hope for. If the leadership is going to design a strategy to pass a bill over liberal objections, then every liberal should object and at least make it clear which ideological predilections are backing the bill. Let it be known that moderates and conservatives favor more Iraq war, and you might suddenly see waves of Americans self-identifying as liberals. "Democrats divided" narratives be damned. The next national general election against Republicans isn't for 17.5 months anyway. We are in the middle of a presidential primary season where we are supposed to be arguing over the direction of the party. This is one argument that needs to be made.

Tell you representatives to vote "no" on the Iraq amendment to the Senate bill. More funding for the war without a timeline is just more funding for an endless war. Even if we are going to revisit this in September, the outcome in September won't be any better unless we start organizing against bills like this now. Let's get back in the saddle. The fight over September funding starts today.

Tags: Activism, House 2008, Iraq (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

Re: How The Iraq Supplemental Will

See, all is not lost.  One setback and some people are ready to cave.  C'mon, it took the Right decades to achieve what they've achieved.  Their power didn't just happen overnight.  And they haven't even been able to ban abortion - yet - after thirty five years of Roe.

I swear, I'm almost inclined to think that some people are glad the Dems capitulated, because it gives them the excuse they were looking for to get lazy and leave the party.  The people who are so "upset" by this that they are throwing in the towel would have found another excuse to do just that down the road.  These are the people who are constant complainers, expect perfection from the Democratic elected officials, but, when it's time to contribute money or work, they are nowhere to be seen.

How many congress members voted for McGovern?  That's hella impressive.  Let's keep fighting.  

by jgarcia 2007-05-23 09:18AM | 0 recs
Re: How The Iraq Supplemental Will Pass, For Now

There is an alternative to caving, and it's still possible. That is to include one final benchmark in this bill: an Iraqi referendum on the continued occupation of their country. With 71 percent of Iraqis wanting U.S. troops out in a year or less, this would be sure to pass. Adding this benchmark would be the functional equivalent of a withdrawal timeline. It would likely lead to the withdrawal of all U.S. troops by the end of 2008, if not earlier. I have written an extensive four-part diary exploring all facets of this idea which I've posted on MyDD, under the name "A New Way Out of Iraq."

In brief, my proposal is for the Congress to add the following section to pending legislation: The Iraqi government is strongly urged to hold a referendum within four months after this legislation is signed on whether and for how long the occupation of Iraq should continue.  The U.S. government is required to support and facilitate the holding of such an election, and if the Iraqi government asks us to leave, to do so, according to their timetable and their requirements.

The basic concept behind the referendum was supported by 67 percent of Republicans in a little-noticed November 2006 poll by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA).
The poll asked "if the majority of the Iraqi people say they want the United States to commit to withdraw U.S. forces according to a timeline of no more than a year, do you think the U.S. should or should not do so?" 67 percent of Republicans said the United States should do so (close to the overall support of 73 percent). That's a shift from two-thirds support for the president's position to two-thirds support for a one-year withdrawal from Iraq!

And because it does not tie the president's or the military's hands in conducting the war, it would be hard for the president to veto, to reject legislation that encourages Iraqis to exercise their democratic rights when the Bush administration has supported democratizing the Middle East and justified the U.S. presence in Iraq on that basis. Even if such legislation is vetoed and the veto upheld, however, its passage by Congress might well encourage the Iraqis to hold such a vote on their own initiative. After all, last week, the majority of the Iraqi parliament, 144 out of 275 members, signed a petition calling for a withdrawal timeline.

I urge you to bump these diaries onto your front page and to cross-post at Daily Kos so we can have a chance to add what amounts to a withdrawal deadline to this awful compromise bill. And please forwward this idea to members of Congress.  

by Johnojai 2007-05-23 09:21AM | 0 recs
what happens if Congress refuses to fund the war?

I'm honestly asking. Does Bush start an orderly withdrawal? Or does he keep the troops in Iraq without funding, as supplies run out? Is there a third possibility?

by arbitropia 2007-05-23 09:26AM | 0 recs
Bush Will Barrel Forward and Break Law

My guess is that Bush will continue to run his occupation of Iraq in exactly the way that he intends to -- he would just shift money from other parts of the DoD, burning up the Pentagon's capital and making it more difficult to have a military in the future. This is extremely partisan and thuggish behavior, but completely in keeping with the way Bush has acted in the past.

If Congress were able to pass a law revoking the authorization for war or prohibiting the spending of money for operations in Iraq, then I expect that Bush would just break the law and blame the Democrats for his illegal behavior. This would add another good reason to impeach Bush and Cheney.

by RandomNonviolence 2007-05-23 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: How The Iraq Supplemental Will Pass, For Now

The Democrats must be planning on another Iraq major showdown in September, hoping that by then public opinion for the war has eroded even further.   But, they should not blink on this TODAY.  The American people are behind them.  Force Bush to veto more bills and see his support go further South.  It is a political winner for us already.    

by georgep 2007-05-23 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: How The Iraq Supplemental Will Pass, For Now

For what it's worth, when I called my freshman congressman Chris Murphy's (CT-5) office, the receptionist said that he was "inclined to vote against" the bill.

by pluto101 2007-05-23 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: How The Iraq Supplemental Will Pass, For Now

"I did some quick math. With 433 current members of Congress, start with 232 Democrats, add 10-15 Republican defectors, minus eight progressive Democrats who have consistently refused to vote for any more funding at all, plus eight conservative Democrats who always want a blank check, and you seemingly have a ceiling of 242-247 votes in favor of the bill."

Maybe I missed something, but aren't you counting the 8 conservative Democrats TWICE here?

by GermanDeaniac 2007-05-23 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: How The Iraq

Fr some reason, it just feels as if the leadership is just playing aroun, unwilling to stand up to Bush. Whoever votes more money for war, owns the damn war. I'm very disappointed in Pelosi, Murtha, Moyer, and company for bringing up a bill, pretend they are against it without doing anyhing to defeat it.

I feel like the Dems are taking my lunch money once more.

by AnthonyMason2k6 2007-05-23 01:23PM | 0 recs

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