How The Iraq Supplemental Will Pass, For Now
by Chris Bowers, Wed May 23, 2007 at 08:58:51 AM EDT
When House Democratic leaders presented the plan at their weekly caucus meeting, freshmen and members of the Out of Iraq Caucus complained vociferously about the lack of a timeline, according to party aides who were not authorized to discuss the meeting.While Republican support did not:
Will the plan pass the House without the full support of the Democratic caucus? The Hill reports that if Democrats "are looking for Republican votes, Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.) thinks they can find them. He says he would be surprised if the proposal cannot garner 10 to 15 GOP votes.Even Pelosi might vote against it:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was so disappointed with the outcome that she said she might vote against the Iraq portion of the package, which will be split into two parts when it comes before the House. "I'm not likely to vote for something that doesn't have a timetable," she said.I did some quick math. With 433 current members of Congress, start with 232 Democrats, add 10-15 Republican defectors, minus eight progressive Democrats who have consistently refused to vote for any more funding at all, plus eight conservative Democrats who always want a blank check, and you seemingly have a ceiling of 242-247 votes in favor of the bill. With 217 votes needed for passage, it would only require another 26-31 progressive defectors to defeat the bill. Given that 169 Democrats recently voted in favor of a fully funded withdrawal, plus two anti-war reps who didn't vote for withdrawal because they were campaigning for Philly mayor, there was theoretically a pool of as many as 163 Democratic reps who could be pressured to reach the necessary 18-23 votes. And that pool seemed quite ripe:
Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) indicated that just because he has voted for it before does not mean he will vote for it without a timeline.Now, here is where the disappointment comes in. The leadership has a plan to pass the bill with wide ranging Republican support (emphasis mine):
"Probably not," Nadler said. "If it doesn't have some sort of timeline, it's going to be tough for me to vote for it."
Freshman Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.), who ran against the war and enthusiastically supported the first supplemental and its call for withdrawal, is also wavering. Asked whether he could support the new plan, he shook his head and said, "I don't know."
At a caucus meeting at press time, House Democratic leaders outlined their plan to get around liberal defections. The supplemental spending bill will be brought to the House floor as two amendments to the Senate bill. The first will be President Bush's original Iraq supplemental request. It is expected to pass with the votes of many Republicans and conservative Democrats. The second, a domestic spending bill to include money for children's health insurance, Gulf Coast hurricane relief, minimum wage and other items. They will be combined procedurally without a vote and sent to the Senate.Ugh. This makes defeat of the bill appear quite unlikely. I don't know how many Republicans will vote for the bill, but it will probably be quite a few. At this point, racking up as many progressive "no" votes to the first supplemental request now appears to be the best we can hope for. If the leadership is going to design a strategy to pass a bill over liberal objections, then every liberal should object and at least make it clear which ideological predilections are backing the bill. Let it be known that moderates and conservatives favor more Iraq war, and you might suddenly see waves of Americans self-identifying as liberals. "Democrats divided" narratives be damned. The next national general election against Republicans isn't for 17.5 months anyway. We are in the middle of a presidential primary season where we are supposed to be arguing over the direction of the party. This is one argument that needs to be made.
Tell you representatives to vote "no" on the Iraq amendment to the Senate bill. More funding for the war without a timeline is just more funding for an endless war. Even if we are going to revisit this in September, the outcome in September won't be any better unless we start organizing against bills like this now. Let's get back in the saddle. The fight over September funding starts today.
Tags: Activism, House 2008, Iraq (all tags)









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