Where the Campaign Stands, Table Form
by Chris Bowers, Fri May 18, 2007 at 09:43:51 AM EDT
I am still working on gathering all of the data I need, as well as the permission I need to release the data, to make the post I have been hinting at for the last two days. Sorry for the hold-up, but it is coming. In the meantime, I wanted to show you a new table I have produced that allows people to view the state of the Democratic nomination at a glance. This table will hopefully serve as an antidote to the conclusions people draw by looking at individual polls that favor one candidate or another. The only real drawback of the table is that it does not easily show trends, but I am working on fixing that. I will make this a permanent page on MyDD soon, allowing for regular updates that won't interfere with the front-page of the site. Check it out:
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
Post-Debate, April 27-May 18th. Last update: May 18, 1:45 pm eastern
Pretty cool, eh? Here are some notes on the table:
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
Post-Debate, April 27-May 18th. Last update: May 18, 1:45 pm eastern
| State | Est. Date | # Polls | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Richardson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Jan 07 | 3 | 25.0% | 21.0% | 26.3% | 6.0% |
| New Hampshire | Jan 15 | 3 | 35.0% | 21.3% | 21.0% | 6.5% |
| Nevada | Jan 19 | 1 | 37.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 6.0% |
| South Carolina | Jan 22 | 2 | 31.5% | 27.5% | 17.0% | -- |
| Florida | Jan 29 | 3 | 41.3% | 18.7% | 15.3% | -- |
| Michigan | Jan 29 | 1 | 38.0% | 25.0% | 14.0% | -- |
| National-High | Feb 05 | 7 | 40.1% | 26.4% | 14.7% | -- |
| National--Low | Feb 05 | 8 | 36.9% | 24.9% | 13.1% | -- |
| Net Avail Cash | Mar 31 | Q1 | $23.4M | $17.7M | $9.6M | $5.0M |
Pretty cool, eh? Here are some notes on the table:
- Only candidates who receive at least 5% in one of the poll averages are shown. In any given poll average, only the averages of candidates who surpass 5.0% are shown. Polls can be found on Polling Report, Pollster.com, and Real Clear Politics.
- The caucus and primary dates represent my current best guess for when they will take place, rather than fixed dates. My reasoning behind the calendar goes like this. With Florida moving to January 29th, Michigan's threat to join any non-IA, NV, NH and SC state moving before February 5th will cause them to move to January 29th. Further, South Carolina has threatened to move up in response to Florida's move, and January 22nd is the most likely option. Also, Iowa said it would move to January 7th after the Florida decision. That makes me guess that New Hampshire moves up to January 15th, in between Iowa and South Carolina. It should be noted that this is all obviously subject to change.
- February 5th is not a national primary, but it will be so vast and include so many states, national polls are used in its stead. Methodology for the high-end national average can be found here, and methodology for the low-end national average can be found here.
- "Net Available Cash" means total cash on hand, minus debts, minus money raised for general election. Open Secrets.org makes all relevant information on this subject readily available.
- All state polls doe not include all Gore, but do include the entire announced field, where possible. One Florida poll and one New Hampshire poll only include the top three candidates. The Nevada poll includes Gore.
Tags: Democrats, Fundraising, polls, President 2008, Primary Elections (all tags)
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