This cycle is already shaping up to be a difficult one for Senate Republicans, who have to defend twice as many seats as the Democrats, so recruitment troubles are just about the last thing they want to endure. But according to The Hill's Aaron Blake, Senate Republicans were just shot down by the candidate preceived to be their strongest in a state won twice by George W. Bush.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) has again passed on a Senate bid and will announce later this year or in early 2008 that she is running for reelection to the House, her spokesman confirmed yesterday.

Republican eyes now turn to Secretary of State Betty Ireland and 2006 Senate nominee John Raese, who faced Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) in 1984 and who some say is girding for a rematch.

Capito, a fourth-term House member, has been Republicans' top pick for West Virginia's two Democratic-held Senate seats in the last two cycles. In 2006, she passed on challenging Sen. Robert Byrd (D).

As it stands, she will stick with the House and could face her most serious reelection challenge, as state Sen. John Unger (D) is weighing a run at her seat.

Another Raese candidacy could spell disaster for Republicans, who are in desperate need of at least some opportunities to put Democrats on their heels so that the DSCC cannot invest all of its money in trying to pick up Republican seats this cycle. While Raese ran competitively with Rockefeller during the current Senator's first bid in 1984, picking up a respectable 47.7 percent of the vote, he has since been tarnished as a loser in West Virginia politics, losing a primary challenge to the sitting GOP Governor in 1988 and then getting trounced last cycle. Looking specifically at his race against West Virginia's other Democratic Senator, Robert Byrd, in 2006, Raese spent more than $3 million only to receive about a third of the vote, a remarkably weak showing even given the strength of Byrd and the Democratic tilt of the cycle. Given that Rockefeller is about as entrenched as Byrd and 2008 isn't shaping up to be such a pro-Republican year, it's difficult to envision Raese having a serious shot at winning next year.

Ireland could be another story. I admittedly don't know enough about her to judge if she'd be that much stronger of a candidate than Raese (though I suspect she would be). [Update [2007-5-10 11:53:1 by Jonathan Singer]: Per commenter Ramo, "Ireland won by only 4 points in 2004 in a pseudo-open seat (a 90 year old former Secretary of State ran for his old job). Don't think she has a chance in hell."] That said, Rockefeller comes in to his reelection bid with serious strengths that could potentially overwhelm almost any Republican challenger, having a wealth of experience, name recognition and good will built up from his four terms as Senator and two terms as Governor, as well as a large reserve of personal finances (estimated at an upwards of $100 million), which he has been willing to tap into in close elections in the past.