On Friday, SurveyUSA put a poll out in the field asking Virginians an interesting question: Should John Warner, the state's senior Senator and a Republican, run for reelection in 2008?

Do you think John Warner should? Or should not? Run for re-election as United States Senator in 2008?

	All Adults	Republicans
Should run for reelection	51	54
Should not run for reelection	40	36

As I noted here last week, there is real reason to believe that John Warner is leaning heavily against running for reelection -- or that he's already made the decision to retire but has just not announced his intentions yet. Specifically, I highlighted the fact that Warner raised just $500 in campaign contributions over the past quarter, a feat that can only be achieved intentionally by telling people not to donate.

If Warner were still undecided about running for reelection, this poll probably won't begin to sway him to try for a go at one more term. Back in 1996 Warner faced a strong primary challenge largely as a result of his refusal to back Ollie North, the 1994 GOP Senatorial nominee, in the general election. While Warner was able to repel the intra-party challenge by a fairly healthy 66 percent to 34 percent margin, he was not able to do so without spending $2.5 million, calling in favors in the form of endorsements from folks like Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush, and campaigning full time around the state. Faced with a base that is still skeptical about him, does John Warner really want to have to undergo another tough campaign next year?

My sense is that the answer to this question is no. As a result, it's incumbent upon Democrats, both within the state and around the country, to work to get a strong candidate to either enter the race or, at the least, wait in the wings willing to jump into the race if and when Warner announces his retirement. That candidate may be Mark Warner, who nearly knocked off the current senator in 1996, though it could also be someone else, someone like Don Beyer, the former Lieutenant Governor who was the party's gubernatorial nominee in 1997 and who, additionally, was a strong and early supporter of Howard Dean's presidential campaign.