During Which Post the Matts Argue Iraq
by Matt Stoller, Sat Apr 14, 2007 at 03:39:07 PM EDT
Here's Yglesias on the residual force problem.
Unlike Matt Stoller, I don't have a big problem with the plans for Iraq put forward by either Barack Obama or John Edwards. I think the notion of keeping troops in the region (also Jack Murtha's idea, for the record) for various purposes makes sense. I also think it's both understandable and correct that people who are hoping to be president in 2009 want to leave themselves some wiggle room in terms of what it is they're committing themselves to in April 2007. Thus, I'm not disturbed that there's a certain amount of vagueness in Edwards' discussion of the possible use of force to protect a humanitarian mission in Iraq, or in Samantha Power's vision of genocide prevention.The issue, to me, is that flexibility is a double-edged sword. In the hands of a good president, it's a good thing. In the hands of a bad president, it's a bad thing. This is why one needs a good president. I'm pretty confident that Barack Obama and his team would exercise good judgment in this matter, and while I have somewhat less faith in Edwards and his team I'm open to persuasion. Fundamentally, I think it's a mistake for progressive activists to define the "correct" position on Iraq as simply equivalent to the position that's most dogmatically hostile to continued American involvement in regional issues. I think the idea of maintaining a semi-permanent counterterrorism force in Iraq is a very bad idea as the presence of such a force in Western Iraq will generate the need for counterterrorism activities there. An "over the horizon" counterterrorism force, by contrast, if prudently used, is a very good idea. If imprudently used, it's a terrible idea. There's just no verbal formula that adequately captures what the next president should do.
First of all, I want to apologize for stealing his post in full. I hope I can make up for it by plugging his appearance tomorrow at 7:30am against some right-wing hack on C-Span's National Journal.
Now to the substance. There are two issues here. One is entirely political and has to do with the meaning of various words as used by our candidates. To me, when a candidate says that he or she will end the war, it means cessation of hostilities. When they say they will bring the troops home, it means that the troops will leave Iraq and in fact, come home. It's really beyond question that various top-tier candidates are pretending that they will withdraw the troops when what they mean is that they will probably leave some residual force in Iraq. If they want to argue that leaving troops in Iraq is a good thing, fine, but be forthright about it. Our political discourse is pretty broken, and words choice and meaning can only return if we demand our leaders be straight with us.
The second issue is whether a full withdrawal makes sense on policy grounds. A pullback to the periphery is a good idea, since having force in the region is useful leverage. The question is whether keeping troops in Iraq, for whatever purpose, is a good idea. Now, first of all, the Iraqis don't want us there. To me that's kind of a big deal. I suppose we could say 'we're here for your own good', and unlike Bush, we can pretend like we really mean it. But that's not in general a good way to persuade Iraqis or anyone else in the world that America is no longer bent on global domination and rebuild our credibility. This is especially true if you think, as Samantha Power does, that American forces should remain to manage the voluntary ethnic cleansing of millions of Iraqis so genocide doesn't happen. Second of all, even if you accept that the use of American force passes the humanitarian threshold test here, and that it somehow supercedes the wishes of the Iraqi public, the question is whether American forces can do anything in Iraq. And until someone proves that the military can provide anything other than really great training exercises for various insurgent groups, then it seems that it's an open question whether the use of force can accomplish the missions, humanitarian or otherwise, that our leaders set out for it. Hope wasn't a plan when Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq, and it's still not a plan now. Third, we have to consider the downsides of keeping troops in Iraq. If we keep troops in country, there is a reduced incentive for regional cooperation to stabilize Iraq. It remains our problem, instead of the world's problem, which means that all sorts of options are off the table.
One obvious counterpoint to these arguments is that America tends to keep troops in counties long after our wars with them are over. This is often true, but it is in fact true only in countries where we have control of territory and some popular support. We don't have troops anymore in, say, Vietnam. And it's probably unlikely we can peacefully keep troops in Iraq under American command without the war continuing, no matter what the stated purpose, simply because most Iraqis think it's fine to kill American troops.
Anyway, I'm more concerned about the politics than the policy, because I see this more as an issue of political honesty than genuine military strategy. I could be sold, though not easily, on a residual force if I had confidence that I wasn't going to be lied to about the situation. We are going to pay deeply for this war, and it's time for honesty.
Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Iraq, John Edwards, Matthew Yglesias, Samantha Power (all tags)









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