SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 01:54:29 PM EDT

The SRBI Time poll breaks down the regional support of the candidates:


They've done this a couple of polls now, and the trends seem clear. Clinton gets her lead from having a strong plurality of the votes from women, and Obama has support that is becoming strongest among men. SRBI points toward the Northeast for the bump that Edwards has gotten over the past month, moving from 11% to 23%, but it's also where Gore was the strongest, at 17% in the previous poll.

Here's their trend:

4/103/273/132/27

Clinton       33         31         34           36
Obama         26         24         26           24
Edwards       25         16         10           11
Gore           -         15         13           13
They dropped Gore for the latest poll, and it clearly shows a big boost for Edwards, not only in the Northeast but also overall. The movement of Gore supporters to their number two choice of Edwards is making this a three-way race. It's going to shift the media's to-date mantra that the Democratic nomination is a two-person contest between Obama and Clinton. There's about 21% other votes out there, so Richardson and Dodd and Biden have a bit of room for growth. It also means that either of the top three candidates has room for growth.

Tags: 2008, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, president (all tags)

  • 57 Comments
  • 0 recs
  • Share
  • Permalink

Comments

57 Comments

Shadow_head_small
Hillary "Rodham" Clinton...

has always polled worse than Hillary Clinton.

by McFrederick 2007-04-12 02:00PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Interesting poll

Obama is ahead of Edwards's on his home turf, because of African-Americans, while Edward's is winning on Obama's hometurf because of his economic populism.

Edwards's surge in the Northeast is striking; he was in like single digits a couple of months ago.

Oh, and have I mentioned that EDWARDS IS TIED WITH OBAMA? Which is weird given the media attention given Obama and Hillary.

How did Edwards manage to break through? A serious question. It can't all be Elizabeth. Might it be, god forbid....issues?

by david mizner 2007-04-12 02:14PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Interesting poll

I would have like to see the numbers with Richardson included.  The previous poll included multiple candidates...which makes it much harder to do a straight trend comparison to a 3 way question.

by rashomon 2007-04-12 02:22PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Interesting poll

I agree.  And the omission of Richardson is especially hard to understand when the poll included, on the Republican side, Newt, Brownback, and Thompson.

by hilltopper 2007-04-12 02:39PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Interesting poll

Yeah the CW has been that Edwards would do the best in the South, but the polling has never suggested that.

by MassEyesandEars 2007-04-12 02:57PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Interesting poll

That was the theory in 2004 as well and Kerry won all of the Southern states except one.

by robliberal 2007-04-12 03:24PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Interesting poll

The southern Democratic primary and the southern general are very different things nowadays I think.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:44PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Is that

because "Rodham" makes her sound like a feminist or because Rodham is such an unpleasant, and phallic, name?

by david mizner 2007-04-12 02:40PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
I thought it was just the opposite

That studies indicated she polled better as Hillary Rodham Clinton than Hillary Clinton. I know I heard that months ago, before the official announcements. Admittedly I have not been paying attention to the wording of her name from poll to poll to see if there's an apparent trend.

by Gary Kilbride 2007-04-12 03:50PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

That indicates to me that Race and Gender play a bigger role in Edwards support than does policy and positions. It's plain to see.

by ObamaEdwards2008 2007-04-12 02:01PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

And that isn't significant in the support of Hillary or Obama?  Please.  I wish it weren't so, but it's true across the board.

by jallen 2007-04-12 02:06PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

No. It's not. Look at the stats.

by ObamaEdwards2008 2007-04-12 02:51PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

Yes, Hillary is leading among women, and Barack is now crushing the others among African-Americans.

by jallen 2007-04-12 02:52PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

Obama is not crushing the others among black voters. In the LATimes poll yesterday Clinton is getting 50% of black voters compared to 41% for Obama

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la- na-poll12apr12,0,6052505,full.story?coll =la-home-headlines

Another interesting thing in that same poll is that Edwards fares the worst with people who should be the most attracted to economic populism.


Obama outpolled Clinton in higher-income groups. But Clinton won support from 52% of voters with household income under $40,000, compared with 26% for Obama and 16% for Edwards.

by robliberal 2007-04-12 03:27PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

I was talking about SC.  I don't care about national polls.

And nobody ever said that people vote out of their economic interests.  If they did, 99% of Americans would vote for Democrats.

by jallen 2007-04-12 03:33PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

Hey look everyone, it's robcentrist, everyone's favorite Hillary supporter.  This guy couldn't argue his way out of a pantsuit but that's okay neither can Hillary Clinton.  She would even lose a debte to Mitt "don't call me Willard" THE VARMINT SLAYER Romeney!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Robcentrist always has the most silly points to make about John Edwards.  What a silly guy.  All 5 voices in my head are in agreement that he puts on his pantsuit everynight and claps along with Fleetwood Mac so he can feel like Hillary.

(Sings) Don't stop thinkin' about tomorrow, Don't stop somethin somethin somethin somethin somethin
Yesterday's gone Yesterday's gone.....

(Horn Noise)bbbbbbeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwwwww w

(Sings) Don't you look back

(Horn Noise) bew bew, bew bew (pause)
 bbbbbbbbbbbbbeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwww wwwwwwwwwwww

(Sings) Don't you look back

by Progressive Populist 4 Edwards 2007-04-12 05:33PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
PP 4Edwards: Better use of your time

Thanks for telling me about the polls and what it actually means for Edwards going forward.  I mean clearly his message is being effectively communicated by his supporters.  Oh that's right it's not.

by Kingstongirl 2007-04-12 05:56PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

Couldn't that also be confounded with lower information voters? i.e. people who don't have time to follow the campaign yet or college students that generally have low incomes anyway?

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:46PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

College students are not proportionally sampled in polls because they dont live at their permanent addresses.  Polls are becoming less relevant because.. how many people these days answer random phone calls on a land line?

Anyway.. college students are under-represented in elections too, so no big difference I guess.  

by Winston Smith 2007-04-13 02:09AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

And disagreeing is a poor reason to down-rate someone.  I only do it when people are insulting, or name-calling.

by jallen 2007-04-12 02:55PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

Right.

by ObamaEdwards2008 2007-04-12 02:56PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

The Edwards lackey, "ManfromMiddletown" likes to abuse trusted user status by troll rating comments he disagrees with.  

by Winston Smith 2007-04-13 02:11AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

Since Edwards is staking out the most progressive position, wouldn't it make more sense to conclude that those who would have supported Gore (the most progressive transformative candidate if he had entered) are supporting Edwards for the same reasons. I don't know how one concludes all support is for Edwards based on race or gender.

by bruh21 2007-04-12 02:09PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
issues and platform

play little in Obama's support and even less for Hillary.

This is the American Idol presidential primary.

why does Hillary want to be president?

what does she want to do?

by TarHeel 2007-04-12 02:17PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
What does Hillary want to do?

No kidding.  Hillary's meta seems to be all about "Didn't Bill and I do a nice job in the 90's?  Let's do that again!"

by rashomon 2007-04-12 02:24PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: What does Hillary want to do?

It does seem more like a game or a job interview with her.

"I know how to beat the Republicans!" Great. But we learned in 2006 that a bologna sandwich could probably beat a Republican at this point. That's not much of a reason to elect you.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:50PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

And Gender isn't a significant facot for Edwards, by looking at the numbers, while Barack leads among men, and Hillary clearly among women.

by jallen 2007-04-12 02:24PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

"facot" should be factor.

by jallen 2007-04-12 02:24PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

What?  I don't buy that at all.  Edwards is the one with issues out there.  Much too simplistic of an analysis and little offensive.

So, Gore voters are racist and sexist?  That's your premise?  No way.

by littafi 2007-04-12 02:25PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

More like scared of losing the general. Stop being so narrow minded.

by ObamaEdwards2008 2007-04-12 02:57PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards greatly

Ah, but that's where your logic falls apart. If Gore supporters are always thinking strategically, then why would they support Gore in the first place considering he's got the highest unfavorability ratings of any potential major Dem candidate? Wouldn't they be scared of supporting him in the first place?

So to me it says that these people are going with their heart. And their hearts are saying Gore and then after that, the guy with the strongest progressive vision in the field, i.e. Edwards.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:53PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Latest Gore favorables and unfavorable

Gallup on Gore's favorables:
3/23-25/07: 56% favorable, 38% unfav, 6 unsure

SRBI 2/27: Al Gore: 60% fav, 39 unfav

These are the latest I have seen on Gore's favs/unfavs.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-13 03:52AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
and those are very good numbers for

someone that has faced the brunt of the RWNM for over a decade.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-13 03:52AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Latest Gore favorables and unfavorable

Here's update Gallop numbers.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27 172

by adamterando 2007-04-13 05:34AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Latest Gore favorables and unfavorable

The poll which this post is about shows that 50% say they would likely not vote for Gore.

by jallen 2007-04-13 05:42AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Latest Gore favorables and unfavorable

I hadn't checked the poll until I saw Adam's comment above.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-14 04:25AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre
We will see what the polling shows in a month.  I suspect there is movement due to shifting pros and soft support.
Also the Elizabeth bounce.
With all of Edwards retoric I think some will see not too much underneath.  
This could cause some support shifting in the future
by vwcat 2007-04-12 02:03PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

Given that they'll see this

http://johnedwards.com/about/issues/
and this
http://johnedwards.com/about/issues/iraq /
and this
http://www.reduceyourcarbon.com/

Democrats will be pleased and see he's got more substance than anyone in the field.

by philgoblue 2007-04-12 02:26PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

Not any more.

Behold the rebuttal to that BS.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/4/12/1827 17/913

by ObamaEdwards2008 2007-04-12 02:59PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

Um...There's nothing new here. I typed in health care and it took me to an answer about health care premiums which linked to his issues page on health care which I've already seen about a dozen times.

Just because there's a cool new linky thing doesn't mean there's anymore substance to the campaign.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:56PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

This could be an outlier since there have been no other polls that showed such a shift to Edwards from Gore. Most others have shown a shift from Gore to Clinton. If it is actually a sign of momentum building for Edwards he could be moving into the #2 spot in other national polls shortly.

by robliberal 2007-04-12 02:25PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
It's definitely a poor comparison point...

It's a pure 3 candidate question.  Which doesn't compare to the last poll Time took, or any of the others out currently.

Edwards is still been strong, but he's likely around 17-19, not 25.  That's easy to see in the RCP trends.

Not to mention, if I'm an Edwards supporter, I'm not eager to see him move too close to Clinton yet.  It's too early.

by rashomon 2007-04-12 02:31PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
It benefits Edwards greatly

Excellent analysis, Jerome.  Glad you're back.  Things are calmer here today.

I think we have a real three way race emerging.  We probably will see a lot of roller coaster ups and downs, but I think it will stay close through 2/08.  

by littafi 2007-04-12 02:26PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
The Three-Person Race

Obama and Edwards are already tied here

http://michiganforedwards.blogspot.com/2 007/04/confirmed-edwards-now-tied-with-o bama.html
and here
http://michiganforedwards.blogspot.com/2 007/04/edwards-passes-obama-into-second- place.html

by philgoblue 2007-04-12 02:28PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Of course...you're cherry picking....

I could just as easily pull the latest Rasmussen...

Clinton 34
Obama   29
Edwards 15

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Politica l%20Tracking/Democratic%20Primaries/Demo craticPresidentialPrimary.htm

by rashomon 2007-04-12 02:34PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Of course...you're cherry picking....

Cherry's are tasty, though.  :-)

by littafi 2007-04-12 02:52PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Of course...you're cherry picking....

What's funny is , that Rasmussen is one of the main polls that have been the most accurate. All this other mess comes from little known or brand new polling firms. I have a feeling they will be in denial all the way up to the Election itself.

by ObamaEdwards2008 2007-04-12 02:54PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Of course...you're cherry picking....

Well if that's the case then get ready for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton!

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:59PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
How About My Beloved Midwest

Where Edwards is screamin' hot.

Economic Populism sells and he's the only guy hawkin' it in the race.

by philgoblue 2007-04-12 02:29PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: How About My Beloved Midwest

I like it, thas what im talkin bout

by okamichan13 2007-04-12 06:23PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: How About My Beloved Midwest

I had an image of John Edwards as a carnie with a Rollie Fingers mustache and red/white striped shirt calling out "economic populism, get your economic populism, here!"

by Peter from WI 2007-04-13 06:54AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Hillary has to be hoping that Democrats don't...

...see these numbers.

by MeanBoneII 2007-04-12 02:37PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Wow!

Obama and Edwards have favorability numbers that appoach 60%! (Obama 59, Edwards 57).  And both beat all Republicans! (exception: Obama ties Guiliani, but the number is several weeks old)

Let's get the REAL two way race going...Edwards and Obama.

by rashomon 2007-04-12 02:51PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

the only way HC can win is by splitting the support between Obama and Edwards.

by episty 2007-04-12 06:38PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

This is wrong, wrong, wrong. Polling has consistently shown that when you take Edwards out of the equation, Hillary goes up. If you take Obama out of the polls, Hillary goes up. If you make it a 3 person race between Hillary, Obama, and Edwards, Hillary still wins.  Obama and Edwards each take away some of Hillary's support, so it stands to reason that they are better served by having each other in the race.

by clarkent 2007-04-13 03:54AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

3 way race?  I don't think so.  The pollsters are eager for it to be so, but don't discount Bill Richardson.  Of those who saw the MoveOn Town Hall, El Gato Gordo was a close #2, while Hillary was in the second tier.  Very good indeed!

This race hasn't even started yet.

by NM Ward Chair 2007-04-12 09:11PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: SRBI: if Gore is gone, it benefits Edwards gre

Yes, the race has.  

You might have noticed that first quarter fundraising numbers came out.

by Peter from WI 2007-04-13 06:55AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------