NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

by Chris Bowers, Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 11:04:59 AM EDT

Just received this poll over email. Public Policy Polling, 4/11, 556 LVs, MoE 4.1.

Elizabeth Dole (R): 44%
Brad Miller (D): 33%
Unsure: 22%

If Congressman Miller decides to run, to start only eleven points behind, despite a massive gap in name recognition, is not a bad position. He also only pulls in 48% of self-identified Democrats in this poll, leads among among Independents (38%-33%) and voters under 30 (44%-42%). Further, Dole's approval / disapproval rating is only 43%--40% in the poll, so she is clearly vulnerable. This all shows tremendous possible room for growth in Miller's numbers. If we managed to put this race on the map, it would be a huge boost to our Senate campaigns nationwide.

I have included a poll in the extended entry: do you think Brad Miller should run for Senate in North Carolina? Full disclosure: I worked for Brad Miller's re-election campaign in 2006.

Update: Complete crosstabs can be found here. It also appears that both North Carlina and North Carolina State are more popular than Duke in NC. Wake Forest trails far, far behind.

Tags: brad miller, elizabeth dole, NC-SEN, polls, Senate 2008 (all tags)

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Oh, man

This would be so sweet. Let's not forget that Liddy is a bad candidate.

by david mizner 2007-04-12 11:08AM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Brad's great. I would support him wholeheartedly against Dole. As in 2002, however, we need to evaluate how many Democratic women we lose to Liddy. That is a problem when running against Republican women.

by DrFrankLives 2007-04-12 11:19AM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

She is the only pro-life woman in the Senate. That could keep her numbers down among Democratic women.

The real problem area seems to be older voters. She holds nearly a 2-1 lead among those 60 and up. If the election were held only among people under the age of 60, this would border on a slam dunk.

by Chris Bowers 2007-04-12 11:22AM | 0 recs

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Not for long.

Imagine commercials like the Veteran's one with the flack jacket, but all about Liddy's votes to dismantle Senior's care.

She followed the Bush line way too close for North Carolina to forgive her.

AND, she's a carpetbagger.

by Robert P 2007-04-12 11:36AM | 0 recs

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When was her last pro-life vote?

by faithfull 2007-04-12 12:05PM | 0 recs

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completely mis-read

I beg you to disregard my above comment

by faithfull 2007-04-12 12:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Hutch is pro-life too, but wouldn't kill Roe v. Wade ... she'd just legislate it into a corner.

by Sam Spencer 2007-04-12 12:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

I thought she described herself as pro-choice. (But, again, would legislate choice into a corner.)

by texas dem 2007-04-12 04:42PM | 0 recs

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it's not pro life it's anti choice.

if they were really pro-life they'd lock arms and block cemetaries.

-C.

by neutron 2007-04-12 12:58PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Luckily for us, NC has seen a boom in population, especially amongst younger folks who have moved down to the fast-growing and left-leaning Reserach Triangle.
She's only polling 44%?!? To me, these numbers prove that Dole is nearly as vulnerable as Coleman, Smith, Sununu etc.

by AC4508 2007-04-12 05:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

That'd me my girlfriend and I! We just closed on our house today in Raleigh. We lived there a couple years ago and are moving back (to Brad Miller's district incidentally).

I think Brad could do it. He's made a very good impression in the north Raleigh suburbs that would otherwise tend to go Republican.

I also think Etheridge would make a good candidate considering he pulls invotes from conservative rural areas. But he's getting up there in years (I think he's already 67) so I'd rather get Brad in there (he's a little more progressive too).

Boy it's going to be fun moving down there and working for the Edwards campaign and "hopefully" the Miller campaign.

If Edwards is on the ticket I think 2008 would finally be the year NC goes back Democratic (haven't voted Democratic since Carter in 1976). If Edwards had been the nominee in '04, I'm not sure he could have done it. The GOP was still too strong. But I think the combination of SLOW demographic shifts (a lot of people moving down here are republicans too) and people turning against Bush should make it the year where Democratic strength at the state level finally carries over to the federal level.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Also,
Chris, no duh Duke is the least popular!

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:32PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

I think Lisa Murkowski has a pro-choice reputation that simply isn't supported by the facts.

See: http://www.progressivepunch.org/record.j sp?member=AKIII&district=At%20large& amp;issue=F1

by pennquaker08 2007-04-13 06:35AM | 0 recs

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She got a lot of Dem Women voters for first run

but she hasn't continued to earn them. I think her support will soften among Dem women this time around. I have not checked her totals from 2002 against this current poll to see if numbers have dropped though.

by The Southern Dem 2007-04-12 12:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

I think we need to recruit as many quality candidates as possible.

Brad Miller in NC
Peter Defazio in OR
Mark Udall in CO
Tom Allen in ME
Mark Warner in VA
Mike Moore in MS
Jeanne Shaheen in NH

The list goes on. We need to have a better bench or we won't make similar strides this year.

Miller is a strong candidate but the problem with many Dem lawmakers right now, is why give up a "safe" seat in the majority party to gamble with a Senate race?

by Vox Populi 2007-04-12 11:28AM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

The leader of the Draft Brad movement is speaking out on Kos.

He wanted me to put up an ActBlue link too. Brad needs a little encouragement.

I was in the same room with Brad a few weeks ago (Chris was there as well), and we chatted for awhile - he likes his gavel and all the great work he's doing fighting bad subprime lenders, but if he knew he had the support I think he'd jump at the chance to serve. We need a strong candidate in every state - that's how we got 6 seats last time.

by Sam Spencer 2007-04-12 11:57AM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Another nice thing about Brad is that his district dips down into Greensboro so he should be able to draw some strength there as well.

If he could make himself known and liked in the Charlotte area then he potentially run strong the three metro areas of the state.

If Edwards was on the ballot I think it would only help him. In addition, If Edwards was on the ticket I think it'd help Larry Kissell too!

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:28PM | 0 recs

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Hit Dole on her residency

She doesn't own a home in NC and makes no pretense about not living here. She simply lists her mothers address, and lets be real, probably hasn't spent a night there.

One a website of her that I visited last year, she openly lists her residence as being in D.C. and talks about vacationing in Florida when time permits. She only flys into NC for events.

by dpANDREWS 2007-04-12 11:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

Let's keep an eye on where she stays when she comes to campaign. IF it is a hotel....

by Robert P 2007-04-12 11:37AM | 0 recs

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Watergate

She and Bob have lived in the Watergate hotel for more than 20 years. I think someone ought to make a commercial featuring the Watergate.

by KickinIt 2007-04-12 11:40AM | 0 recs

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Re: Watergate

Any opportunity to say "Watergate" and "Dole" in the same sentence is golden.

by Sam Spencer 2007-04-12 12:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

Not trying to be technical but her mother died in 2004 and Elizabeth inhieted the house so yes she does own a home here, having said that these numbers do give her a rise of concern, she has money but she will have to work for it, the right candidate could beat her but I am not sure Miller is the best candidate. I would rather see Etheridge or McIntyre run, there is also a rumor that Walter Jones Jr. may run but no one is sure if its as a Republican, Democrat or independent.

by THE MODERATE 2007-04-12 11:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

I did a write up about this.

http://bluenc.com/where-does-elizabeth-d ole-live

by blue south 2007-04-12 04:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

McIntyre would be able to bring in some conservative votes probably, but I don't think he would generate much enthusiasm statewide. At least not amongst the base.

Etheridge I think would be a fine candidate. But again, isn't he already in his mid to late 60s? I'd rather field a candidate that could serve at least 3 terms if he/she wanted to.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

McIntyre has gotten his share of DINO comments...

An important point about Etheridge is that his seat would be incredibly hard to hold if he ran. Also, he was at 45-30, meaning Brad actually polls a little better

by blue south 2007-04-12 06:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

I forgot about that (his seat). If he stayed in for another 10 years we could have his son take it over!

by adamterando 2007-04-12 06:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

I dont know. That experiment didnt work too well when we tried it with Walter Jones...

by blue south 2007-04-12 07:16PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

Brad is hitting her on that ... as will all of us.

We just need to beat her in the money game.

by Sam Spencer 2007-04-12 12:33PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

Brad had this to say

"I don't think it will be an easy race for anybody," Miller said. "I think a Democrat can win that race. I think the advantage I'd have -- and any Democrat would have -- is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate."

by blue south 2007-04-12 04:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hit Dole on her residency

I already read somwhere that Miller said a potential benefit of him becoming Senator would be that nobody would have to remind him which state he represents. Ouch!

by AC4508 2007-04-12 05:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Answer to the poll questiom: hell, yes! Brad Miller has so much experience in North Carolina politics (8 years in the state legislature?), and Dole can easily be painted as a carpetbagger. It seems that she is less interested in living in the state she is supposed to represent, than even Santorum was. The biggest number is that Miller ALREADY leads among independents. Dole is under 45. Run, Brad, run!

by cilerder86 2007-04-12 11:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

CREW SAYS 5 MILLION EMAILS WERE RAPTURED OUT!!!!!

http://www.citizensforethics.org/node/27 607

by BLOGGINGBITCH 2007-04-12 11:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Those are not good numbers for Dole. She appears to be quite vulnerable.

by robliberal 2007-04-12 12:05PM | 0 recs

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Chris - glad you updated

to include the really important information about this poll. Go Heels!

Brad is not well-known in Mecklenburg County which is a strong progressive pocket. His numbers will jump dramatically as word spreads and 11 points is certainly an easy hurdle for a seasoned campaigner. We have to remember, he isn't a beginner.

by The Southern Dem 2007-04-12 12:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Chris - glad you updated

Right,

(Sadly) I think Erskine Bowels started with a 10-15 point lead on Burr in 2004 only to see it gradually evaporate as Burr's name id went up.

I think the same could happen in reverse with Brad in 2008. Except he doesn't even have as far to go as Burr did.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Chris - glad you updated

In January of 2004 Bowles was ahead 45-40, but he also had a huge lead in name ID for most of that race.

by blue south 2007-04-12 06:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Chris - glad you updated

Yeah, I'm thinking of a specific WUNC poll done sometime (I don't even remember when, I think it was summer '04) that showed Bowles up 48-40.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 06:31PM | 0 recs

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Dole ran NRSC in 06

I don't think she got a lot of love for her work, and I think she could be easily unseated. And unless MJ is coming back to North Carolina to run, I think Brad Miller should consider it, because I think it is his for the taking.

by Benstrader 2007-04-12 12:24PM | 0 recs

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She still made $1.7 million

She'll have a war chest.

by Sam Spencer 2007-04-12 12:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Wake Forest has fewer living alumni than NC State and UNC have students (or something like that).

Duke, too, is a much larger schol.

Go Deacs.

Go Miller!!!

by demondeac 2007-04-12 12:25PM | 0 recs

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Duke and Dole

The reason Duke isn't nearly as popular is because so many fewer actual North Carolinians actually go to Duke. Duke is known for being attended by Northern kids who couldn't make it into the Ivy League. North Carolinians all either went or know people who went to UNC or State.

This is why the "rivalry" sometimes hyped between State and UNC is actually overhyped; eveyone who goes to either school has friend or relatives at the other.

I'm a Tarheel, and GOD! do I loathe Duke.

All of that being said, the same psychology probably plays into Dole's low approval ratings -- she's not really one of us.

GO HEELS!

by Swellsman 2007-04-12 12:30PM | 0 recs

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Go Davidson

Duke is a prestigious Northern school in the South. Davidson is a prestigious Southern school where Northerners are happening to go in greater numbers.

by Sam Spencer 2007-04-12 01:53PM | 0 recs

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Important Cross-Tabs

College	Democrat	Republican	Other
Duke	16	21	17
NC State	26	25	25
UNC	41	30	31
Wake Forest	6	6	3
Other	10	18	24

by ltsply2 2007-04-12 12:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: Important Cross-Tabs

Not surprising. The school for the proletariat versus the school for the ruling class (who couldn't get into Harvard, no offense to any Duke grads).

Interesting fact about UNC (and the later universities that are part of it) is that when it was founded I think it was written into the state constitution that tuition had to be free or as nearly to it as possible. Pretty advanced language for 1790 something.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:39PM | 0 recs

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Re: Important Cross-Tabs

"As free as possible" I think that was actually added in the 19th century.

In state tuition at UNC-CH is the highest of all the 16 public schools. It is under 4000 per year. NC State is second highest and is right below 3500 per year. (yes, year not semester)

by blue south 2007-04-12 06:13PM | 0 recs

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Re: Important Cross-Tabs

Thank god too since my girlfriend is heading back there (State) to finish up school and start vet school!

by adamterando 2007-04-12 06:32PM | 0 recs

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since there is no "hell yes!" option...

I picked yes.

I am behind this, the question is, would Schumer be?

NC has a tendency to have Senate seats change parties anyway right?

And Brad is a hell of a congressman, and a hell of a nice guy.

not to mention
ONE OF US!
ONE OF US!
(but uh... not in a creepy way)

I love his bit about not having to be briefed about what is going on the state.

"I don't think it will be an easy race for anybody," Miller said. "I think a Democrat can win that race. I think the advantage I'd have -- and any Democrat would have -- is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate."

ha ha!
I would donate.
not much, since i'm stretched thin like always, but Rep. Miller is worth it.

-C.

by neutron 2007-04-12 01:02PM | 0 recs

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Unfortunately

This is not the cursed seat that changes hands at least once every 6 years.

by Sam Spencer 2007-04-12 01:54PM | 0 recs

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Helms' Old Seat

Winning this seat would be huge. It has been in GOP hands since 1972. Yes - It's the one Jesse Helms held for 5 terms.

by Bear83 2007-04-12 07:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

whats the pvi of his seat?

by bentheben 2007-04-12 04:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

I think it's slightly positive for Dems. I believe it narrowly went for Kerry in '04. Brad won it by about 55% that year and then blew Vernin Burnin Robinson out of the water last time around.

by adamterando 2007-04-12 05:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

Supposedly it is only D+2 However, it becomes more Democratic every day thanks to demographic changes.

More importantly, if a guy like Grier Martin ran it would be pretty safe. Grier's state house district was lean republican when he first won it.

by blue south 2007-04-12 06:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: NC-Sen: Brad Miller Would Make It A Race

I would like to see Brad identify our replacement for his seat quickly, then make his move so we don't lose a seat in the House over this.

by RANT 2007-04-13 04:26AM | 0 recs