It's been several months since I noted that the Democrats would have at least a competitive shot at picking up a Senate seat in Mississippi in the event that the state's senior Senator, Republican Thad Cochran, opted to call it quits. Since then, there have been some indications that Cochran is leaning towards running for a sixth term in the Senate, most notably his move to ramp up his fundraising efforts. Yet a potential slip of the tongue by Pennsylvania's Republican Senator Arlen Specter, who has served beside Cochran for the last quarter century, is casting new questions about Cochran's intentions. Aaron Blake has the story for The Hill.

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) recently wrote a letter to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that incorrectly stated he would be the senior Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee by 2010.

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"By 2008, or 2010 at the latest, I will be senior Republican on Appropriations and chairman when the party again regains control of the Senate," the letter [to the Post-Gazette published April 1] read. "In that position, I can do much for Pennsylvania and would have a significant role in establishing national priorities on federal spending."

In actuality, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) stands in Specter's way.

Senate Republican Conference rules say a member can be chairman of a committee for six years and ranking member for six years.

Cochran, who ascended to the chairmanship in 2005 and became ranking member when Democrats took power this year, has nearly six years of ranking member eligibility and four years of chairman eligibility remaining. Therefore, he will maintain senior status past 2010 unless he retires or leaves the committee.

Cochran, 69, is up for reelection in 2008 and hasn't said whether he will run again.

The Specter camp has backed away from the letter, with Specter spokesman Scott Hoeflich accepting blame for the incorrect statement. But could it be that the statement is not incorrect? Could it be that Specter indeed believes that he will be the ranking Republican on the appropriations panel by 2008 or 2010 because he he has reason to believe that Cochran will retire next year rather than run for reelection?

As noted above, Cochran has beefed up his fundraising efforts -- to the tune of $650,000 in a single week back in February, according to Sid Salter of The Clarion Ledger -- a potential sign that he is leaning towards trying for another term. But a decision to raise money for a reelection campaign does not always lead to a decision to run for reelection. In 2004, for instance, Colorado's Republican Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell raised close to $2 million dollars towards his reelection campaign before deciding on March 3, 2004 -- fairly late in the cycle -- to retire, a decision that made it significantly easier for the Democrats to pick up his seat later that year. Similarly, Louisiana's Democratic Senator John Breaux had raised close to $1 million in 2003 before deciding late that year not to run again.

Of course I could be reading too much into Specter's letter and not enough into Cochran's fundraising efforts. But if it is indeed the case that Cochran is not in fact leaning towards another run -- and there are other indications that he's not, including the slide show presented to GSA workers by Karl Rove aide Scott Jennings that listed Mississippi, along with states like Colorado and New Hampshire, as potential close Senate races for the Republicans to defend in 2008 -- the Democrats would have a fighting shot at picking up his seat as former state Attorney General, Democrat Michael Moore, is extremely popular among Mississippians. At the least, we need to count this race as one more on the retirement watch list.