Open Thread And Poll Chart

I have to run out for a while, but use this thread for anything that might be on your mind.

Also, here is a handy chart of the five national polls that were conducted from 2/22-3/1. Obama clearly appears to be surging, and now finds his average around 25%. Reports of Edwards death have been greatly exaggerated. (Notes: Fox poll includes Gore, Time poll includes only Clinton, Edwards and Obama)
PollClintonObamaEdwards
Rasmussen, 3/1342615
Fox, 2/28342312
Time, 2/26423022
ABC-WaPo, 2/25432714
Zogby, 2/24332512
Five Poll Mean37.226.215.0

Tags: Open Threads, polls (all tags)

Comments

38 Comments

Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Edwards needs to get a message that will stick with voters soon.

by robliberal 2007-03-05 08:12AM | 0 recs
hunh?

Edwards is the only candidate who has a message. It's what's keeping him in the thick of the race.

by david mizner 2007-03-05 09:36AM | 0 recs
Re: hunh?

Obama has a very strong message... its just not the message YOU want to hear.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-03-05 12:43PM | 0 recs
You sure do seem afraid of Edwards.

Hillary needs to win in Iowa, she has all of the advantages and no excuses now.

by MeanBoneII 2007-03-05 09:43AM | 0 recs
Re: You sure do seem afraid of Edwards.

I tend to agree with you.  If she doesn't pull off a first or second place finish in NH and Iowa, she is in serious trouble... although she has the potential of a Feb 5 turnaround.  If she passes that point in 3rd place, she is done.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-03-05 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Maybe reports of Edwards "death" are far-fetched, but he has certainly dropped significantly.  He used to be doing a lot better than a very clearly stratified 3rd place.

by Fran for Dean 2007-03-05 08:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart
Dropped? I don't ever remember him being above 15. Check out both archives: Polling Report and Rasmussen.
by Chris Bowers 2007-03-05 08:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Maybe he hasn't been above 15%, but he was clearly in a tie for 2nd place for a while, with Hillary dominating both Obama and Edwards.  As Hillary's numbers have come down, they haven't gone to Edwards at all.  I guess in the sense that his own numbers haven't changed, then you're right.  But looking at the overall horserace, he's gone from 2nd place to 3rd, and people are only paying attention to Hillary and Obama.  I'd say that's pretty bad news for Edwards.

by Fran for Dean 2007-03-05 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart
It would be if the caucuses weren't nearly a year away and if this weren't national polling. As it is, it's a minor worry.
by Englishlefty 2007-03-05 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

For now... Even with Iowa hard to poll, if his support drops to the 15% level there, he is going to be in serious trouble. The media coverage he has now will become even scarcer and it will hurt his fundraising some (although not as much as it would an HRC, since, like Obama, Edwards is not taking PAC money). That's not saying he can't come back, but it will be harder.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-03-05 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Good thing he's leading in Iowa then.

by adamterando 2007-03-06 02:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

When you run these polls you might want to include the intrade options contract prices on these candidates as well. They are a good verifier of poll accuracy.

by smacfarl 2007-03-05 08:35AM | 0 recs
Or the last poll

so we get a good indication of the trends.

by Yoshimi 2007-03-05 09:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart
No, they are not.
by Chris Bowers 2007-03-05 08:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

How dare you question the wisdom of the all powerful market!

by adamterando 2007-03-06 02:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

That Time poll really pushes leaners, and I think it's misleading. Without it, the four poll averages are:

Clinton    36%
Obama      25.25%
Edwards    13.25%

Other/undecided 26%

That seems to paint a clearer picture of the race at this point, and I do think it speaks to Edwards stuggling a bit, if not dropping, then at least stuck where he is. Obama doesn't seem far from closing the gap with Clinton to within 10 points, at  which point I think we've got to start thinking about this as a two tier race: Clinton-Obama in the first tier, Edwards-Richardson in the second, and the rest undeserving of mention.

by James Gatz 2007-03-05 08:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

We are not too far away from this becoming a three tier race.

FIRST TIER
Clinton
Obama

SECOND TIER
Edwards
Richardson

THIRD TIER
Gravel
Biden
Dodd
Kucinich

by robliberal 2007-03-05 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Do you think Richardson will have a real chance as a Pres or VP darkhorse? VP I might see. Do you think he may be running now for a top office in 2012 or 2016? Just wondered what your reasons for placeing him #4. Do you think he will bring the Western and middle class or are there other reasons?

by irsouth2 2007-03-05 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Richardson has a better shot at VP than the top spot. Until Clinton and Obama entered the race Edwards was in good shape. His campaign has not moved much since then. He has to find a way to be more competitive with the top two.

by robliberal 2007-03-05 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Well, remember there hasn't been a debate yet. And at some point people are going to wonder what Obama and HRC are going to do about health care and jobs. That will be a pretty stark contrast compared to Edwards.

But the time and recent rasmussen polls are encouraging.

by adamterando 2007-03-06 02:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Richardson is running for VP.  A Western, Latino candidate.

by justinh 2007-03-05 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

He would team up well with any of the top 3 truthfully.  To HRC, he adds experience as well as someone who to many is the opposite of her.  To Obama and Edwards, he adds experience which has been an attack point on both of them.

by yitbos96bb 2007-03-05 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Only in the dreams of the investor class and Obama supporters is it a two tier race.  The MSM loves gender v. race.  

John Edwards is in a very good position right now. As the novelty wears off on Obama and people find out about his votes to stay in Iraq (like the 2006 vote against Boxer/Feingold/Kerry), his support will fade.  

These are name rec polls, and Obama v. Clinton has been the dominant MSM story.

John Edwards will upset the staus quo.  Neither Obama nor Clinton will.  They will bring personal diversity to the table, but no fundamental change.  John Edwards is building a movement for change.  People want change.  Soon they will realize that Clintobama will not create it.  

Still way too early.  

by littafi 2007-03-05 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Your grasp of the situation is pretty poor.  

Edwards has a higher name recognition than Obama does in nearly every poll.  If it was a name recognition thing, Edwards would be a strong a second right now.  He was the VP in 2004, he is not an unknown.

Anyone who says that Obama voted to stay in Iraq is either an idiot or someone who doesn't understand just how the Senate works.  First of all, call it the correct thing... it wasn't a bill it was an Amendment.  Yes, Obama voted against it, to vote for the Reed/Levin Amendment...  Don't think we didn't notice the use of republican type attack tactic... attacking the candidate for voting for or against one bill while ignoring the fact the candidate voted for a different version.  You also seem to conveniently forget the fact that the party line was to VOTE AGAINST the Amendment.

Finally, if HRC's support for the war isn't enough to sink her and Edward's support and super late apology aren't enough to sink him, some  amendment that a majority of Senate Democrats were against is not going to cause him problems at all, especially since more of the types of voters who vote in the primaries already know about these types of votes.

And for good measure, why don't you go back and review Edward's Senate record... tell me if you agree with him 100% on every vote he made.

Saying Obama isn't working toward a new movement is just plain ignorance.  Whether it will work or not is a question that will be answered another time.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-03-05 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Its a real stretch to compare Edwards to Richardson.  Edwards is leading him consistently and significantly in national polls, and John also leads in the first state, Iowa, and Richardson, to my knowledge, is not leading in any states.  As well, John is raising more money.  The factors that go into ranking should be more comprehensive than just looking at national polls, which mean very little.

by jallen 2007-03-05 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

That is why I said "not too far away". We are not to that point yet but if Edwards does not get traction that will create an opening for Richardson. If Edwards continues to fall behind in national and other state polls he will start to lose support in Iowa which will put Clinton and Obama in first and second.

by robliberal 2007-03-05 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart
Again, he is not falling behind.  You guys are vastly exaggerating, or making it up.  He has never done much better than 12-15%, and when he has, it has been a fluke.  In this cycle, he has never led, to my knowledge, in any state except Iowa, where he holds his lead, although Barack and Hillary have made gains.  Edwards may be doing worse now relative to Hillary and Barack, but he is still leaps and bounds ahead of any other candidate, and is still strong.
And this speculation is based on a false premise:
"If Edwards continues to fall behind in national and other state polls he will start to lose support in Iowa which will put Clinton and Obama in first and second"
...because John is not falling behind, as Chris pointed out.
by jallen 2007-03-05 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

TO be fair, Edward's has not had a lead in every Iowa Poll.  In all the Strategic Vision he has led, but ARG has been all HRC.  Zogby is all over the place.  Iowa is all over the map so picking a clear frontrunner is hard (Although DesmoinesDem says Edwards is in the best position, however he IS an Edward's supporter so there may be a bit of bias there.)

Strategic Vision Feb 16-18, 2007 John Edwards 24%, Hillary Clinton 18%, Tom Vilsack 18%, Barack Obama 18%, Joe Biden 5%, Bill Richardson 3%, Wesley Clark 2%, Chris Dodd 1%, Dennis Kucinich 1%, Undecided 14%

Zogby International Feb 7-8, 2007 Hillary Clinton 24%, John Edwards 24%, Barack Obama 18%, Tom Vilsack 9%, Joe Biden 4%

American Research Group Jan 29 - Feb 1, 2007 Hillary Clinton 35%, John Edwards 18%, Barack Obama 14%, Tom Vilsack 12%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Joe Biden 2%, Wesley Clark 2%, Christopher Dodd 1%, Bill Richardson 1%, Mike Gravel 0%, Undecided 13%

Strategic Vision Political Jan 19-21, 2007 John Edwards 25%, Barack Obama 17%, Tom Vilsack 16%, Hillary Clinton 15%, Joe Biden 4%, John Kerry 3%, Wesley Clark 2%, Bill Richardson 1%, Chris Dodd 1%, Dennis Kucinich 1%, Undecided 15%

Zogby International Jan 15-16, 2007 John Edwards 27%, Barack Obama 17%, Tom Vilsack 16%, Hillary Clinton 16%, Joe Biden 3%, John Kerry 3%, Dennis Kucinich 1%, Bill Richardson 1%

American Research Group Dec 19-23, 2006 Hillary Clinton 31%, John Edwards 20%, Tom Vilsack 17%, Barack Obama 10%, Dennis Kucinich 5%, Joe Biden 2%, Christopher Dodd 2%, John Kerry 2%, Wesley Clark 1%, Mike Gravel 1%, Bill Richardson 1%

KCCI-TV Dec 18-20, 2006 John Edwards 22%, Barack Obama 22%, Tom Vilsack 12%, Hillary Clinton 10%, Al Gore 7%, John Kerry 5%

Harstad Research Dec 16, 2006 John Edwards 36%, Hillary Clinton 16%, Barack Obama 13%, Tom Vilsack 11%

by yitbos96bb 2007-03-05 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart
I don't see that many of Edwards' supporters going to Richardson, and he's probably not going to pull that many from Dodd and Biden when they drop out. His potential niches are Hispanics, more economically liberal voters and those who pick a candidate based on resume. Edwards isn't really strong in any of those categories, if Hillary and Obama start to slide back then it won't make any sense to call Edwards second tier and the other candidates just don't have enough supporters to provide that much of a boost to Richardson. Richardson is the most likely non-top tier candidate to go the distance, but I don't see him catching Edwards in the forseeable future.
by Englishlefty 2007-03-05 09:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Classic Obama concern comment.  You should be scared of Edwards.  He takes real stands.  

by littafi 2007-03-05 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Yeah... When the polls tell him its OK too.

by yitbos96bb 2007-03-05 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

When will people learn to discount these national polls?  Dean LEAD in the nationals when he was coming in third in IA, and second in NH.  Then his nationals tanked.  National polls are lagging indicators.

by MassEyesandEars 2007-03-05 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

Who's the white guy in the race?

At some point the media will begin the narrative, can a woman or black man be elected president?  And this will lead to: is it a risk for the Democrats to nominate a woman or a black man?  And Democrats who want to win will get nervous, have doubts, and Edwards will get a boost in the polls.

by justinh 2007-03-05 10:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

That brings back (unpleasant) memories of an image I saw during the 2004 primaries.  I think it's the one that sticks out the most in my mind when I think about the primaries.

It was a picture of a New Hampshire street corner, maybe a week or two before the NH primary.  The picture had one of those huge street signs in blue with Dean's slogan, "Hope, not Fear" and "Dean for America" written on it, and then right next to it was another huge sign, this one in red, and it said "Doubting Dean?  Vote Kerry".

by Fran for Dean 2007-03-05 10:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

That's what I had in mind.  I remember the Newsweek cover story, "Doubts About Dean," that came out (strategically?) right before the Iowa caucuses.  

by justinh 2007-03-05 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread And Poll Chart

That will happen again.

by robliberal 2007-03-05 01:53PM | 0 recs
robliberal wrote:

"Edwards was in good shape. His campaign has not moved much since then. He has to find a way to be more competitive with the top two."

I don't see how Edwards can find a way to be more competitive with the top two.  He has played all of his cards.  He has formatted his campaign around eliminating poverty; he has set up OneCorps across the country; he has presented his complete and clearly-defined medical reform plan; he has presented Congress with a Petition not to fund the escalation of the war in Iraq and Congress didn't even acknowledge the Petition; he has apologized for his Iraq vote so many times he is now starting to sound like a groveler; he has implied over and over that he is the "honest, open and decent" candidate while ... you know ... that Hillary woman is not.   And he is lodged in third place - well below the candidate in second place.  It's not like he is even close to Obama.

Add to all of the above -- the fact that he has been the unfortunate recipient of one rightwing smear job after another and he didn't handle any of those smears quickly or effectively.

John Edwards should have fired his campaign strategist(s) right after the Amanda Marcotte blogger incident.  

I also know a number of people who were "on the fence" re John Edwards - they were interested but not convinced.  Then the news about Edwards's super-mansion broke and whether or not it is okay for a guy with dough to own such a "compound", the reality is, it turned a lot of people off, who were buying into Edwards' Two Americas rhetoric.  A smart politician would have waited to build that obscene house.

John Edwards will not be the next President. And that is the good news.

by marasaud 2007-03-05 08:56PM | 0 recs
Re: robliberal wrote:

What a nonsensical comment!

He's played all his cards? We haven't even had a debate yet! The first quarter fundraising numbers are almost a month away! The Iowa caucuses are 10 months away!

Oh my goodness that's funny.

Also, I'd like to know the definition of an "obscene" house. Would the clinton's house in chappaqua qualify? Is an energy star home "obscene"?

It's also funny that you note all of the wonderful things that Edwards has done or proposed and yet you conclude that its good news that he won't be president.

Amazing the cognitive dissonance.  

by adamterando 2007-03-06 02:33AM | 0 recs

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